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As the U.S. military drawdown is to begin this month with more behind the scene efforts to achieve a peace deal with the reconcilable Taliban leaders, the majority of Afghans question the reconciliation process initiated by President Hamid Karzai with the support of his foreign backers.
With several ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ in between, three key preconditions mentioned for the reconciliation of the Taliban included an end to violence, severing ties with al-Qaeda and acceptance of the existing Constitution of Afghanistan.
As for the first two, most probably the reconciling Taliban leadership would agree once they are guaranteed their safety and security inside the country. However, there will be no full-stop when it comes to the Constitution which the Taliban leadership believes was an ‘imported’ document ‘written by the foreigners.’
And what about the Afghan women who were banned from attending schools, offices and even coming out from their houses without being covered from head to toe and accompanied by their male relatives?
The Taliban’s scorn for art and music, television and cinema and freedom of expression are some other key points that need to be clarified before entering into any meaningful deal with them. The foremost question for the Afghan government and the international community is the status of women in a future Afghan setup where the Taliban leaders will be holding key positions.
Proponents of the talks theory say only moderate Taliban will be included in the government. But they need to realize that it is not the moderates holding the guns and fighting the Afghan and foreign troops. Rather, those who introduced medieval practices in the insurgency-wracked country are further exacerbating the woes of the war-weary Afghans, particularly the women who make almost 50 per cent of the total population. In the words of Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef, former Taliban ambassador to Afghanistan and once considered a moderate leader, “Taliban are Taliban, there are no moderates and no radicals.”
Another Taliban leader, who is a key character in the recent peace talks, when asked about the Taliban stance about the existing Afghan Constitution, told this writer that “the real issue is the Constitution. There will be no fight if the Taliban agree to respect the Constitution.”
Apart from ensuring their rights, the Afghan Constitution states that two seats from each province shall be reserved for women in the parliament thus making it compulsory to provide one quarter of the seats in the 249-member House for women. How can this be possible under the Taliban who banned women from work or from being seen in the markets or streets? Can the international community, in its pursuit to achieve some sort of peace with the Taliban and get out of Afghanistan, afford the negligence of women’s rights in a country where a record number of 430 women candidates participated in the run for the September 2010 parliamentary elections?
There is another aspect to the much sought-after democratic process in Afghanistan. The previous presidential and parliamentary elections, though fraught with rigging, was the single biggest achievement of the international community in the country. However, the Taliban leadership, that despises democracy as a western system aimed at detracting the Muslims, are unlikely to accept voting or even if they agree, they would not be able to come in power through voting.
There are two possible options. Either the Taliban join the election process, which they will never do, mainly because they would have no chances of winning or the international community and the Afghan government should set aside democracy and let the Taliban have a share in the government for a specific period without undergoing the democratic process.
However, in this case, there will be a strong reaction from the ethnic Tajiks, the key rivals of the Taliban during their six-year rule and who make almost 27 per cent of the country’s population along with other ethnic minorities such as the Uzbeks and Hazaras.
Afghanistan’s former foreign minister and Hamid Karzai’s chief rival during the previous presidential polls, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah had already expressed reservations about a peace agreement with the Taliban undermining the other Afghan ethnicities. Though the majority of Afghans are now voicing support for a negotiated settlement instead of continuing the war, they are equally worried about the return of Taliban rule once the international community leaves the country.
Although the war-weariness of the NATO members and the pressure on the Obama administration inside Washington is forcing the allies to wrap the war and arrange a compromise exit, the long-term outcome of such an exit is not going to turn out well for Afghanistan, for the region and the world. Any hurriedly organized deal providing an upper hand to the Taliban would embolden the militants and instead of becoming part of the mainstream, they would try to subdue all those opposing their views and ideals. Hence, there will be another civil war between the Taliban and the ethnic Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks which will be further fuelled by the regional powers to settle their scores and rivalries on the Afghan turf. Before leaving Afghanistan in haste, the international community must know that the country would be too late to control in case things move in the wrong direction. And this time, unlike the past, it would not be Afghanistan alone. 
Daud Khan Khattak is a political journalist and has written extensively for Foreign Policy, Christian Science Monitor, and London's Sunday Times. He is an expert on the Pakistani Taliban and Pakistani politics. In April 2010, Daud's analysis was featured in "The Battle for Pakistan", a report from the New America Foundation in Washington, D.C. Daud Khattak is also Acting Director at Mashaal Radio, RFE/RLPrague, Czech Republic.
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