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The recently held elections in the five Indian states of Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Kerala, Assam and West Bengal could have wider implications on the polity and policy-making of the Indian government. Though, it looks as if the Congress and its alliance partners have secured victory in these elections yet a deeper analysis of the polls would suggest that they are a warning sign for the UPA government to get back to the basics which it has repeatedly ignored since it returned to power in May 2009.
When the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) first came to power in May 2004, after it defeated the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the first task before the government was to return to pro-poor policies, as it was felt that the NDA had lost power because of its terrible anti-poor policies as well as the communal disturbances of Gujarat which had shaken the confidence of the nation. The NDA, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party did not take any action against the usually arrogant chief minister Narendra Modi whose alleged involvement in the anti-Muslim disturbances in Gujarat are still being investigated by the Central agencies as well as the Supreme Court of India. Hence, when the UPA came to power and Sonia Gandhi actually appointed Dr. Manmohan Singh as Prime Minister of India, there was tremendous goodwill for the Congress Party.
True to its promises, the government formed a National Advisory Council (NAC) comprising civil society activists, former bureaucrats and journalists, etc. to advise the government on important policy decisions. Many in the government had at that time actually questioned the legality of such a body but it was basically the Congress Party’s effort to control the government and guide it. The NAC became important and powerful as it was headed by Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, the president of the Congress Party, so the suggestions and ideas provided by it were taken seriously by the government, ministers and bureaucrats.
The result was extraordinary as the government brought some of the most landmark legislations such as National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGA) which guarantees a minimum of one hundred days work to rural jobless workers at the minimum wage prescribed by the local state. It created a lot of goodwill despite many failures as they were more systematic and needed to be responded to. The second important landmark during the first tenure of UPA was ‘The Right to Information’ law which today has become the biggest headache for politicians as well as corrupt bureaucrats.
Due to this goodwill, the UPA returned to power in May 2009 with an increased majority, making the Congress Party more powerful at the centre in the past two decades. The NDA was shattered and was without any powerful leader and agenda. The Congress Party realized this and became uncontrollable. In the previous term, the left parties were allies of the Congress party and were actually putting a lot of pressure on certain policies that they felt went against the common man’s interest. Unfortunately, the left’s withdrawal of support for the nuclear bill from the government and later their defeat in the subsequent elections actually strengthened the pro corporate, pro American lobby within the Congress party. It went on a spree of land acquisition in the country. A large number of Special Economic Zones were created in different states ignoring the violent protests of the local people. Land was acquired for highways and for various energy needs and big companies. The biggest zones were Andhra Pradesh, Chhatishgarh, Orissa and Jharkhand.
There was a common understanding for ‘industrialization’ and land acquisition among political parties. The biggest upset came about when the left front government in West Bengal acquired land for ‘so-called’ industrialization in Nandigram and Singur ignoring the interests of the smaller share croppers. The government of West Bengal at that time would not have imagined that their forceful acquisition of land and its violent protest would become a landmark in the history of modern India where people’s protest just did not allow the government to acquire land. Mamata Banerjee who was the Railways Minister in the central government opposed tooth and nail the policies of land acquisition and went on to fast unto death in protest. The Tatas, who acquired land for their Nano car in West Bengal, actually decided to shift to Gujarat.
The impact of Nandigram and Singur on West Bengal and the rest of India was tremendous. It boosted the morale of forces that were fighting against illegal land grabbing by the corporation in close connivance with the governments and authorities of different states. These state governments started behaving like real estate agents. In the absence of a solid opposition, the central government and its alliance partners were ignoring the public outcry. A number of ministers were caught in huge scams. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK government and its minister were alleged to be involved in multi-million dollar 2G scams yet the government was unable to take any action against the minister A. Raja who headed the Telecommunications department. Chief Minister Karunanidhi ignored public opinion and outcries against his ministers and sons who were dominating Tamil Nadu politics. He said that these were conspiracies hatched by his opponents to defame his family and party, unmindful of public discomfort on this.
When these states went to the polls, a few things were already predicted by various pollsters. That Mamata would come back to power was a foregone conclusion for West Bengal yet none were ready to accept its surety given the left front’s record and power of its cadres in the villages. In Kerala the conclusion was favoring the Congress party-led alliance as the state had never re-elected any party for two consecutive terms. In Tamil Nadu, pollsters still felt that DMK was better organized despite all its weaknesses. The other states such as Assam and Pudduchery, though important practically, mattered little for political purposes.
When the results came out they shocked everyone. For West Bengal, though CPM lost heavily in terms of seats, its popularity and support base was not drastically reduced. It got 42% of the popular votes polled against Mamata-Congress alliance which got nearly 48% of the votes. Even if the Congress wanted to welcome the victory of Bengal, it was clearly a victory of the forces against illegal land grabbing in Nandigram and Singur. Clearly, the then West Bengal government was following the dictates of the centre at that time for trying to get more investment. So, it was a warning to the central government to be careful about further land acquisitions. The Tamil Nadu polls showed that the Congress could not ignore the issue of corruption among its allies. It went with DMK due to its compulsion to save the coalition. The final outcome from Tamil Nadu badly bruised the Congress as it could not retrieve the seats it had won.
The most astonishing and shocking results came from Kerala where the Congress managed to capture power. The Congress was thinking that the people of Kerala would vote it with a thumping mandate but it seems that the left front lost elections in Kerala due to its own mistakes as the Communist Party of India (Marxist) had deep divisions on the issue of leadership of V.S. Achuthanandan. The party refused to make him the leader for the next poll. In the final outcome, it was just the margin of a few seats (4 seats in total) that the congress managed to get in Kerala.
The congress lost Pudduchery too where its own rebel leader joined hands with AIDMK and defeated the Congress party. The former chief minister was considered to be a very honest and dedicated man but in the Congress party such people are rare and have to face a lot of internal challenges.
The biggest face-saving for the Congress actually came from Assam where Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi came back to power for the third time despite deep efforts by the Bhartiya Janata Party to silently polarize the issue of Hindus and Muslims. Tarun Gogoi’s image was relatively clean in the party and he returned to power.
The election result showed that people have voted against the land acquisition policies of the government and against corrupt regimes. The victims of land acquisition are the poor such as Dalits, tribals and backward communities. The urbanized middle classes are also feeling the pinch of the anti-people neo-liberal policies of the government and are now resisting. Immediately after the polls, the fast unto death by Anna Hazare and his associates is an example of growing unrest in civil society actors and among common people against corruption. If this is not arrested soon, the consequences could be too high for the government in the next elections in 2014. 
Vidya Bhushan Rawat is a human rights activist and documentary filmmaker, based in New Delhi.
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