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Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa addressed the nation on its 63rd Independence Day on February 4, 2011, at Kattragama, a sacred site for both the Buddhist Sinhala majority and minority Hindu Tamils. In direct contrast, in a suburb of Colombo, a gang of thugs set upon an opposition candle light protest march led by the United National Party (UNP) demanding the release of Sarath Fonseka, the former army commander who led the war against Tamil separatists and is now in prison on charges of corruption. The few policemen on duty are said to have watched the clash as mute spectators.
These two cameos represent the contradictions of post-war Sri Lanka – emergence of a strong national leader and his strong arm rule that brooks no opposition.
There was nothing remarkable in President Rajapaksa’s speech but it had underlying nuggets of his strategy. For the second year, the President has celebrated Independence Day away from the national capital Colombo; this is symbolic of his strong play for the rural constituency, where his popular support lies, rather than the urban. He said, “Inconvenient and difficult decisions are also necessary for the nation’s progress. It is the nation’s responsibility to take hard and difficult decisions to bring light to the future of our children, rather than take popular decisions that will lead them to darkness ahead.” This indicates he is in no mood to tolerate growing politically-inspired unrest among students in many universities.
Sri Lanka’s economy is getting back on its feet rapidly after the national bloodletting of nearly three decades of Tamil separatist insurgency. The stock exchange is booming and tourists are flocking to the island in huge numbers. But prices are also skyrocketing. It seems Sri Lanka’s post-war blues are not over. There are three gritty issues challenging the President.
The estranged Tamil population of the North is not back in the mainstream; international focus on Sri Lanka’s alleged war crimes and human rights violations is unrelenting; and the international rump of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in league with sections of Tamil Diaspora is refusing to die.
President Rajapaksa’s hat-trick victory in provincial, presidential and parliamentary polls held after the war has one weak spot: the Tamil constituency particularly in the North. His United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) coalition performed dismally in the North in the last parliamentary poll. Winning over the North has become a prestige issue for the President as it still questions his thesis of ‘liberating’ the Tamils from the clutches of LTTE dictatorship. The Tamil National Alliance (TNA), which acted as the LTTE political proxy in parliament, continues to be strong in this region; it refuses to bend easily to President’s terms; it wants a political package for Tamils first. The North is slated to hold in March the first-ever post-war local government elections (barring Jaffna and Vavuniya which went to polls earlier) to be followed by provincial polls. With the army visibly present in the North, and the efforts to rehabilitate war-affected people belying their expectations, the province continues to be a grey area in the President’s power grid.
Sri Lanka’s woes with the international community over the alleged war crimes committed by Sri Lanka Army continue on two fronts: the United Nations moves spearheaded by the West and the U.S., and by separatist sections of Tamil Diaspora. The President has taken only half-way measures like constituting the Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation Commission in a bid to satisfy them. However, ground realities show how unsatisfactory these measures are. The state of Emergency and Prevention of Terrorism Act continue and physical attacks on media and opposition also continues. In this environment, the President’s international credibility continues to be low.
It is clear that the President would like to continue to strengthen his hold on the country; already constitutional limitations on going beyond his second term have been removed. His successes appear to have reinforced his belief that a strong hand is needed for building a strong Sri Lanka. He has failed to promote justice and political reconciliation for all its citizens, and hold dialogue with all parties, including Tamils inside and outside Sri Lanka, on new mechanisms for devolving power. He is taking a gamble in deciding that development of Tamil areas would satisfy disgruntled Tamils. But political grievances simmering under the surface among Tamils is slowly spreading to sections of majority population too. The downturn in the global economy and the rise in cost of living is affecting everyone in Sri Lanka. Thus political grievances and economic deprivations are making an unholy mix that could destroy peace and harmony. The bottom line is not what the President promises, but what people feel. Large sections of population do not trust the President.
Bob Marley, the Jamaican reggae, once spoke on his mixed parentage with Rastafarian simplicity: “I don’t have prejudice against meself. My father was a white and my mother was black. Them call me half-caste or whatever. Me don’t dip on nobody’s side. Me don’t dip on the black man’s side nor the white man’s side. Me dip on God’s side, the one who create me and cause me to come from black and white.” If we substitute the words ‘black’ and ‘white’ with ‘Tamil’ and ‘Sinhala’, Sri Lankans should be saying the same. But that is not happening; if we go by President Rajapaksa’s actions after the war, it appears unlikely to happen. The country is heading for an implosion sometime in the future and that should be cause for concern to all those who love this emerald island. 
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