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The 2000s began in geostrategic realities that had emerged as an outcome of the horrific 9/11 attack. India on her part, entered the decade in the immediate aftermath of the India Airlines hijack in Christmas 1999 and the Kargil war earlier that year. The euphoria of nuclear muscle flexing and Lahore bus diplomacy had died down by then; it was replaced by apprehension over the intelligence and security apparatus of the country.
India was on the top of the list of nations to watch out for in the first decade of the new century, but India was also amongst the bottom half countries of the social development indicators. There was a lot of buzz about the economic potential of the country, but there were just as many social issues plaguing her. India was at a juncture where she was simultaneously faced with expectations and compulsions to deliver on economic, social and strategic fronts. When the curtain rose on the 2000s, all eyes were on India – whether she would script the great success story of the decade as expected, or whether she would buckle under the pressure of great expectations.
Political and Strategic Space
Politically, the last decade would be remembered for three ‘coming of age’ stories. Firstly, the transition of Mrs. Sonia Gandhi from someone who was derided for her Italian origin, poor Hindi and lack of understanding of Indian politics – to becoming the longest serving party chief in the 125-year history of Congress and the most powerful person in the country. The surprising show of political astuteness from Sonia Gandhi – firstly, by winning the General Elections 2004 for her party almost single handedly and then by sacrificing Prime Ministership – silenced her critics and gained her a billion hearts. Secondly, Dr. Manmohan Singh, the unexpected Prime Ministerial candidate, won over the country and world with his intelligence, clean image and quiet determination. When the time came, Dr. Singh showed that he is made of sterner stuff by staking his political capital on contentious deals like Indo-U.S. Nuclear Liability Bill. But the most telling story is of the Indian populace, which understood the significance of the electoral power. The ruling NDA, which was a clear favorite to retain mandate in 2004 on basis of its India Shining campaign, was rejected by the grass root level which had not benefited from an economy that shined only on the periphery. This change in popular voting pattern was also reflected in Bihar polls, where people rejected deeply entrenched caste based politics in favor of economic and social development. It also witnessed Indians shaking off their stoic silence – the population began to debate and demand on matters related to governance, judiciary and security.
The landmark Right to Information Act (RTI) was passed by the Parliament in 2005, which opened up the administration for scrutiny and was hailed as an important mechanism in India’s fight against corruption. Sadly though, neither RTI nor the fact that two PMs (Dr. Singh and Mr. Vajpayee) with spotless image were at the helm of affairs throughout the decade, could curb India’s tryst with corruption. Multiple scams rocked the nation and looted the public exchequer of almost INR 50,000 billion. The most noteworthy being the 3G scam, the CWG scam, the Telgi scam, UTI scam, etc. While the world lapped up WikiLeaks towards the end of the decade, India started 2000s with Tehelka tapes catching army officers and politicians accepting bribes and ended with Radia phone leaks that showed the involvement of politicians, corporate and journalists in tampering policies.
The new century also saw India discard the third world mindset and aspire for a global geopolitical position with a tremendous self belief. The NDA government’s conviction that the world’s two largest democracies India and the U.S. are natural allies, initiated a process that culminated in an Indo-U.S. nuclear deal and President Obama’s support for India’s case for permanent UNSC membership. This strengthening of Indo-U.S. ties and dehyphenation of Pakistan from India’s ties with the world, were the most significant strategic achievements of the last decade. Barring few diplomatic hiccups, the relations with China remained good for the large part of the decade, with the focus being on economic cooperation. India-Pakistan continued to follow the swing model of relationship. While the decade started with 2002 military stand-off as a result of the militant attack on the Indian Parliament and ended with failed bilateral talks between them, the two bitter neighbors almost settled the Kashmir issue during the Musharraf regime – thereby giving hope that a compromise is not impossible.
Economic Evolution
The Indian economy was the star of the decade for India as well as the world. In April 2007, India became the 12th country to join the exclusive Trillion Dollar GDP Club. Indian Rupee also joined the ranks of elite currencies by getting a unique symbol. At a time when the global economic slump intensified in advanced economies, India maintained the second fastest growth rate in the world, after China and grew at a compounded annual growth rate of over eight per cent during the decade. The high savings rate, consumer driven economy, less dependence on exports and robust banking system helped India survive the recession and put the Indian economy onto the radar of the global financial observers.
The economic growth was reflected in the stock market which witnessed the Indian companies gathering a staggering Rs. 2 trillion through 385 public issues in ten years. Indian businesses began to vie for global reach and acquisitions. The new found economic success was also reflected in increased consumer spending – be it air travel, higher sales of automobiles or half a billion mobile connections.
Social Shortfall
Ironically, the poverty rate shot up to 37.2 percent in 2010 from 27.5 percent in 2004. In 2010, nearly 410 million people were below the UN poverty line of $1.25 a day – 100 million more than the 2004 estimate. The strong economic growth has not been inclusive. Farmers’ suicides continued despite some policy measures to waive off their loans. The high food price inflation towards the end of the decade has pinched millions of poor as well as middle class Indians. This is why India, which acted as one of the bulwarks against the spread of the economic downturn, has been unable to effectively check the spread of Naxalite insurgency within the country.
This is also a setback for the UPA government which puts lot of emphasis on poverty alleviation, healthcare and children and women empowerment and has implemented many milestone legislations for the same. The National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) launched in mid-2000s offered 100 days of wage-employment guarantee per year to all unskilled adults. This was the first instance of development rights getting codified. It was also a commendable example of accountability in the supply system – as it required the entire expenditure of the scheme to be updated on NREGA website. A major health initiative, the National Rural Health Mission, aims to provide accessible, affordable and effective primary health care across the country and has adopted a synergistic approach by including nutrition, sanitation, hygiene and safe drinking water in its fold. The Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education (RTE) Act, 2009 – based on the NDA government’s Constitutional Amendment that made Right to Education a fundamental right – ensures free and compulsory education in 6-14 year age group, thus giving an impetus to children from poor families to enroll into schools. The Domestic Violence (DV) Act, 2006 protects women against domestic violence – a horrifying reality affecting almost 70 per cent of married women in India; whereas the Women’s Reservation Bill passed by the Upper House in 2010 will ensure 33% seats for women in the Parliament once it is passed by the Lok Sabha in 2011.
Tools of Terror
Over the decade, India continued to be one of the worst terrorism-hit states in the world. The hydra of terrorism reared its ugly heads in Kashmir, Mumbai, Delhi, Ahmedabad, Jaipur, Hyderabad, Lucknow, Pune, etc. The attacks ranged from symbolic targets like the J&K Assembly, Indian Parliament and Akshardham temple, to public places and transport. However, nothing could match the audacity of the Mumbai 26/11 attacks, when a billion Indians helplessly watched a bunch of terrorists hold the city on ransom for three days. These also underscored the repeated intelligence lapses on part of the Indian security apparatus. National security was the driving factor behind Project Aadhar, a scheme to provide a unique national ID to every Indian citizen.
PM Manmohan Singh called Naxalism the gravest internal threat to the country; the Naxalites proved him right by carrying out one deadly attack after another and by accounting for nearly 40 per cent of India’s geographical area. Terrorism in the Northeast and Kashmir reduced, with a massive reconstruction effort being directed towards Kashmir. However, the troubled state flared up again in 2010 due to failure of the government to capitalise on the faith reposed by Kashmiris in 2008 Assembly polls.
The decade marred with communal violence – Gujarat riots being the worst and most talked about – ended on a positive note when the Ayodhya verdict on the disputed Babri mosque property was received with extreme restraint by Hindu and Muslim communities.
Conclusion
In the last decade, when the world struggled with the economic meltdown, it looked up to India as one of the few countries that can pull the world out of the recession. India continued to grow during the slump thanks to her domestic economic strengths. While there is no stopping India’s economic growth and her ambition to be taken seriously on world stage; India’s financial and global stature will be of little relevance to 80% of her population unless there is a major trickledown effect that uplifts many millions from the clutches of poverty. Now, the time has come for India to focus on her social sector. The time has come for India to unleash the power of her billion people through education, employment and empowerment. The time has come for India to build communal strength so as to survive unforeseen events that these uncertain times may spring up on her. 
Semu Bhatt is a Mumbai-based independent political analyst specializing in security and governance issues. She is co-author of Cost of Conflict between India and Pakistan and Cost of Conflict in Sri Lanka.
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