Dragon Strike

K. Subrahmanyam, the don of strategic affairs in India once aptly opined that at the moment, U.S.A. is the global hegemon which is challenged by China. Are (Indian) policies in place to deal with this? Is India in a position to develop policies that would influence this outcome?

The U.S. in particular and the West in general would not like to see the emergence of China as the global leader; therefore, it is courting India as a counterweight to China. However, what is surprising to few is that it is acceptable to India to act as a tool of the West. According to the American narrative, India is emerging as a major global player and has the ability to impact the global geopolitics and American policies in the areas vital to American strategic interest. However, India’s rise is seen as a positive development in various power centers as it is seen as a partner and a counter weight to China. A number of studies conducted by the American Army’s Strategic Studies Institute on a possible course of U.S.-China and India relations. One thing which strongly comes out of these is that India will side with the Americans in any crisis with China. The understanding that a nuclear India is too big to ignore and can be used to secure its interests in an area where U.S.A. is facing a challenger, guided Strobe Talbot to conduct extensive dialogue with his Indian counterpart Mr. Jaswant Singh. The high point of this came with the defense agreement and civilian nuclear cooperation agreement between India and U.S.A. during the Bush administration. The Obama administration has accelerated the process which is clearly evident in his recent trip to India.

The history of India’s relations with China since the days of Hind-Chinni bhai-bhai days is full of contradictions and mistrust.  India declared China as the main reason for its 1998 nuclear test. Indian defense minister George Fernandes called China a “bigger potential threat” than Pakistan and described how his country was being encircled by Chinese military activities in Tibet and alliances with Pakistan and Myanmar. At the moment, there are a number of issues which can result in a conflict between India and China; territorial disputes, Chinese South Asia policy, Tibet, Sikkim, Chinese naval presence in the Indian Ocean, energy and resource competition.

Indian strategic community believes that China is seeking to deny India its proper stakes in the game of international politics. Beijing worries that geopolitical concerns are driving Indian China policy and that this is why it has become a part of the American led strategic alliance to contain China.

Overview of Sino-Indian Relations

India established diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China on April 1, 1950. In 1954, India and China signed an eight-year agreement on Tibet that set forth the basis of their relationship in the form of Panch Shila (Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence). For the next 5 years, Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai was the motto of Indian policy towards China.

In October 1962, a border war took place between India and China in which the People’s Liberation Army literally humiliated the Indian army and pushed within forty-eight kilometers of the Assam plains in the northeast and occupied strategic points in Ladakh. Adding to the humiliation was the unilateral cease-fire announced by China on 21 November and withdrawal twenty kilometers behind its contended line of control. In 1967, armed forces of both countries clashed in Sikkim. These skirmishes are known as the Nathu La incident and Chola incident.

In an attempt to reengage, Indian President Narayanan visited China in 2000. In 2002, Chinese premier visited India. However, the most important visit by an Indian leader to China was Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s visit in 2003. This trip improved the situation between the two countries and brought the relationship on track. In 2004, the bilateral trade crossed the $10 billion mark.

In another development, in July 2006, both countries opened the Nathula trade route. Prime Minister Mr. Manmohan Singh visited China in 2008 and met both the president and the prime minister of China and discussed issues of mutual interest to both countries.

American-Indian Strategic Alliance
According to the American Army’s Strategic Studies Institute, in any future conflict between U.S.A. and China, India in probability will align with U.S.A. This explains the close defense ties between the two countries despite the fact that Indian armed forces are still based on the Soviet model. According to military experts, transforming from one model to another is a very laborious and time taking process. As it is not only the weapon systems which are to be changed but the whole orientation of the armed forces and operational understanding. India is eagerly working on military modernization which has been aptly called arming without aiming by Stephen Cohen. U.S.A. and India have signed a 10-year defense framework agreement that calls for expanded joint military exercises, increased defense-related trade, and the establishment of a defense and procurement production group. The U.S. and India have conducted more than 50 military exercises since 2002.

U.S.A. and India have also signed a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement which has provided a de facto recognition of India as a nuclear state, against all norms of international proliferation laws including the NPT.

Analysis and Conclusions
It seems that despite various diplomatic steps taken to improve the bilateral relations and continuous improvement in trade and economic ties, booth India and China realize the limitation of their relations and are taking measures to safe guard their national interest. The relationship at its core is vulnerable and prone to misperceptions, accidents, and eruption of unresolved issues. However, in the foreseeable future both would not like the relationship to deteriorate as it will adversely affect their rise as global players.

In near future, U.S.A. will continue its support for India’s permanent seat in U.N. Security Council; take steps to further expand the security relationship and boost defense trade; support Indian membership in key export control organizations, a step toward integrating India into global nonproliferation efforts; and liberalize U.S. export controls, including the removal of Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) subsidiaries from the U.S. Entity List.

Nicholas Burns states: “A strong U.S.-India strategic partnership will prove indispensable to the region’s continued peace and prosperity. Both India and the United States have a vital interest in maintaining a stable balance of power in Asia. Neither seeks containment of China, but the likelihood of a peaceful Chinese rise increases if it ascends in a region where the great democratic powers are also strong. Growing U.S.-India strategic ties will ensure that Asia will not have a vacuum of power and will make it easier for both Washington and New Delhi to have productive relations with Beijing. In addition, a strengthened relationship with India, a natural democratic partner, will signal that the United States remains committed to a strong and enduring presence in Asia.”

American desire to establish India as a counterweight to China ignores certain facts which are totally against the philosophy of the founding fathers of U.S.A. While the U.S.A. and west describes India as a rising global giant, the vibrant economy, world’s biggest democracy ignores the fact that almost half of the world’s poor live in India. While India boosts of 8-9% annual growth rate for almost a decade now yet according to Newsweek, almost 85% of the Indians earn less than 45 cents per day.

Despite this miserable state of affairs, India is among the biggest arms and weapons purchasers in the world since 2005. India instead of addressing these issues is busy turning itself into a global player and geo-strategic giant. The biggest encouragement in this regard is coming from the West especially the United States of America which has its own axe to grind with China.

They are preparing India as a counterweight to China which clearly indicates that the U.S. can think of keeping its position as the global hegemon. The world would not be a nice place if it has an active India-China rivalry. It would be dangerous for the whole world.

Churchill once said, the Americans can be counted on to do the right thing, once they have exhausted all other options. 

Rizwan Zeb is a doctoral candidate at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Western Australia and a former Benjamin Meaker Visiting Professor of Politics, at the University of Bristol, UK. He is also a visiting scholar at the Brookings Institution and is currently working on a book on the Strategic Culture of Pakistan.

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