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Former president, Pervez Musharraf did not go into hibernation after his retirement. Instead, he continued to take as deep an interest in Pakistan’s affairs as before. After launching his new political party, All Pakistan Muslim League, he has become directly involved in the country’s politics. Of late, he has been touring the United States and Canada, as he has been doing in the UK, talking to crowds of Pakistanis, introducing his new party and explaining his vision and aims.
He has also recently announced his decision to move his operational headquarters from London to Dubai. What necessitated this move, he has not yet let on. But his aides say that the action was dictated by the necessity to be nearer home in order to watch political developments more closely as they happen. It will be easier for him to communicate with his workers and give them directions as well as to contact other political leaders in Pakistan. Personal contacts with other political leaders as well as his own workers would be economical both in time and money in the case of Dubai in comparison to London.
Another factor in favor of Musharraf’s preference for Dubai could be the fact that Pakistani politicians have chosen Dubai as the venue for important party meetings, ever since Benazir Bhutto made it her base in exile. Of late Nawaz Sharif, as well, has held several meetings with his party members in Dubai. Musharraf may not enjoy the same level of close relationship with the UAE ruler as Benazir, but, there is no question that he is held in high regard both in UAE and Saudi Arabia. His contacts with both governments’ dates from the time the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan because Pakistan, KSA and UAE were the only states to recognize them.
No question that Musharraf has embarked upon a Herculean adventure by founding a political party. Obstacles and pitfalls in his path are galore. First of all, some people question the choice of the party’s name. They argue that the rubric of “Muslim League” has been so much overused and misused as to have lost its shine. Besides, in the recent past, Sheikh Rashid of Lal Kurti added one more Muslim League, naming his new party, Awami Muslim League.
Meanwhile, a few Muslim League factions have merged into a single entity under the name of Muttaheda Muslim League (MML). Though Nawaz Sharif’ Muslim League is still on its own, but efforts are reported to be afoot to bring it also within MML fold. In addition another new party has surfaced. Calling itself “Mustaqbal Pakistan” it is headed by Nadeem Qureshi, whose name has never before been heard in Pakistan’s politics. Though nowhere on the ground, it advertises itself in some British and American newspapers.
Musharraf’s defenders claim that he has taken the safest course in choosing his party’s title. They argue that despite being battered out of shape Muslim League still retains an appeal in the hearts of the people. A right kind of leader can therefore still stir the old embers and set them aflame. But whether and how far Musharraf can do that is the zillion dollar question.
Richard Holbrooke, U.S. special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan also sounded a pessimistic note about Musharraf’s prospects. “He has about as much chance of coming back to power as (former Soviet) President (Mikhail) Gorbachev,” he was quoted as telling a gathering of U.S. diplomats and security experts recently.
“Had he fulfilled his promises to President Bush to restore democracy, close down the extreme madrassas and do the right thing in the tribal areas, we wouldn’t be in the situation we are today. He didn’t keep his word,” Holbrooke complained. “Musharraf comes back and wins a democratic election? Fine! But as I indicated earlier, the chances of that are very slim.”
But Musharraf quickly turned the tables on Holbrooke. He referred to Holbrooke’s frustration in a speech at Toronto a few days later, to prove that he had not been an American puppet. And no doubt he can compare the number of drone attacks during his tenure with the present to reinforce his claim further.
However, for Musharraf, the want of a solid constituency is the basic hurdle. He is not a “son of the soil.” He cannot play any Sindh card like Benazir Bhutto. Nor can he raise a slogan like: jag Punjabi jag/Teri pug noon lug gaya daag” a la Nawaz Sharif. Nor can he draw upon Baloch or Pakhtoon loyalties.
In a country where biradri, and ethnic affinity control politics, his only chance of success would rest on the support from people who can rise above ethnic identification and resist the pull of biradri. A change to issue-based politics is the only answer to the debilitating influence of ethnic and biradri politics.
In his statements therefore he highlights the mess that lack of proper governance has made of the country. He speaks on issues that touch the people and often subtly drops hints of how he would tackle the problems people are beset with. None the less, to bring about a change in the old way of thinking is a daunting task, yet, it should not be impossible to achieve, if pursued with dedication and resolve.
Musharraf is under no delusion on this score. He canvasses support on his capacity to deliver, and, therefore, instead of doublespeak, which is a basic ingredient of doing politics, he speaks his mind forthrightly. He admits his mistakes, where he is convinced of having erred, such as declaring emergency. But on certain other controversial issues like the raid on Lal Masjid and the military operation against Nawab Akbar Bugti that led to the latter’s death, he stands by his decision. He even pointed out to the Americans in a recent talk in Washington that when he counseled the Bush administration to talk with Taliban they did not listen. Yet, now, after the loss of many more lives, they are adopting the same course.
Yet, his baggage haunts his chances. The rightists hold Lal Masjid against him. Akbar Bugti’s son is trying to recruit assassins to kill him and has even announced a bounty of a thousand acres of land plus a billion rupees on Musharraf’s head. A section of the media seems set to avenge his crackdown in the wake of the emergency.
Among political opponents, Lord Nazir was the first to declare war against Musharraf, opposing his sanctuary in UK but failed. Nawaz Sharif is particularly bitter, demanding Musharraf’s trial for treason under Article 6 of the Constitution. But he is frustrated by the condition that a case under the said Article can be instituted only by the government. And the government does not seem inclined to oblige.
Musharraf returns Sharif’s courtesy, with remarks that sound like vintage ZAB, such as calling him brainless. He also trades barbs with his erstwhile supporters, the Chaudhrys of Gujrat and ex-prime minister, Zafrullah Jamali.
Musharraf has a few sincere supporters such as Dr. Sher Afgan and Mahmood Ali Kasuri. But what he needs urgently is to enlist a dedicated team that shares his vision “Pakistan First.” His base at Dubai may make this task easier for him. 
Syed Jawaid Iqbal is the Editor-in-Chief of Southasia Magazine. He is also the Founding Chairman of Moderates - a private sector think tank committed to strengthening tolerance, interfaith, harmony and democracy.
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