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 Nepal’s parliament failed again in its thirteenth bid to elect the country’s Prime Minister on October 26, 2010. The small Himalayan nation has been without a functioning government since June 30 when Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal resigned from his post. The fourteenth round of voting will take place soon; however, there is no hope that there would be an end to the political impasse. The challenges to democracy in Nepal are well known and the instability in its politics is protracted. Among the host of factors that makes the politics in Nepal turbulent, the one major cause is India and China’s meddling into the affairs of the country between which Nepal is sandwiched.
Both India and China seem to have proactive policy towards Nepal as they fear Nepal to be used against their strategic interests. Initially India played an important role in bringing democracy to Nepal. The pro-democracy movement in the country was supported by India for several decades and Nepali Congress leaders waged their struggle for democracy from Indian soil. More recent in history, Indian leaders helped broker the 12-point understanding between the Maoists and Nepal’s other political parties in 2005, enabling the rebels to emerge from the underground. Delhi played an important role too in convincing the king Gyanendra to step down. However, when democratic elections in 2008 brought the Maoists to power, Delhi’s support for democracy wavered.
India finds itself at great unease with Maoists due to their alleged links with Maoists in India. It believes that Maoist shift to mainstream politics is a temporary phenomenon and is opposed to their ambitions of restructuring in a fundamental way the Nepali state and its institutions. Therefore, in the series of spats between the Maoist-led government and the military in 2009, it backed the latter and blocked the Maoist move to sack the army chief. India is believed to have played a role in the collapse of the Maoist government in May 2009 and in putting together the coalition government.
China is unhappy with this increasing influence of India in Nepal and has not concealed its reservations. In fact, the Chinese are just as determined as the Indians to see that they have a ‘friendly face’ at the helm in Katmandu, someone they can count on to crush the increasing activity of the ‘free Tibet’ movement in Nepal. To this end, China has always supported establishment in Nepal. However, when Maoists gained majority in 2008 elections in Nepal and India opposed them, China started supporting them.
Though Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao stressed “there is enough space in the world for China and India to develop themselves at the same time, and there are enough sectors for China and India to cooperate,” it does not seem the case in Nepal. As much as India’s influence is growing in Nepal, China is rushing to match its every move. From investment in the country to giving aid, building infrastructure and rendering political and military support to the favored fraction competition is growing between the two countries. These events are also taking place at a time when there is a souring of relations between China and India on bilateral issues.
Besides throwing Nepal into further political chaos and resultant economic crisis deepening poverty in the already poor country, there is a very pertinent concern that this competition between China and India, with an apparent support of the U.S. to the latter, may trigger a greater instability in the already troubled Asian waters. Will the two countries respect Nepal as a buffer state to save this situation? ... Not likely. 
The writer is a Lecturer at the Department of International Relations, University of Karachi.
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