Road to change


Written by S.G.Jilanee • Region • October 2010

1-1 There was a time when West Bengal was a bastion of the Congress. Mahatma Gandhi's 1946 visit and work in the wake of Noakhali communal riots had added to the party's popularity in the province. Indeed, Gandhi had developed such love for Bengal that when Jawaharlal Nehru was receiving the freedom of India from Lord Mountbatten, he retreated to Calcutta (present Kolkata) to reflect over what was gained and lost.

From 1948 to 1977, except for four brief spells of president's rule, Congress ruled over the province. Prafulla Chandra Ghose was its first chief minister and Siddharta Shankar Ray, the last.

In 1977 the Congress passed the baton to the Communist Party of India (Marxist). Since then till today West Bengal has been under CPI (M) rule represented by Chief Ministers, Jyoti Basu and Buddha Deb Bhattacharya.

Lately the CPMI (M) government has suffered a sag in its popularity due to various factors, including voter fatigue. Taking advantage of the growing anti-left sentiments both Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress are eying next year's assembly elections and flexing their muscles; one to invade and capture, the other to revive the past.

But, because the old days when Hindu Mahasabha flourished on communal tensions are no more, it may be an uphill task for BJP to realize its dream. Nevertheless, Senior BJP leader Arun Jaitley and party general secretary Chandan Mitra have declared that BJP would contest all seats in next year's assembly polls.

At the same time Congress is desperate to stage a comeback. Its general secretary Rahul Gandhi is therefore making repeated whirlwind tours of the province, visiting its every nook and cranny. He has held crowded public meetings, addressed Youth Congress workers and students and, in a style that was signature Nehru-Gandhi, often broke security barriers to mingle with crowds to the accompaniment of the chant; "Raa-hul." His charm offensive with his youthful handsome features dazzled the multitude.

But election results are unpredictable. And public mind is fickle. Large attendance at public meetings is no guarantee of a victory at the hustings. And Rahul is aware of it. He is also aware that without an alliance with Mamata Banerjee's Trianmool Congress, his Congress cannot expect to gain a respectable foothold in West Bengal. He, therefore, announced that his party wants alliance ‘based on respect' for next year's polls and asked party men to strengthen the organization in the state.

But Ms. Banerjee is not dropping her guard. Obviously alluding to Rahul's forays she said at a railway function in northern Bengal's New Jalpaiguri, "I am not like the proverbial koel (cuckoo) that arrives in spring and disappears once the season is over. There is consistency in my work as railway minister in north Bengal."

Ahead of Gandhi's visit to the state to revive the party, Trinamool leaders had lashed out against the Congress, with Somen Mitra, now a Trinamool Congress MP saying "Beggars can't be choosers," while commenting on Congress' efforts to revitalize the organization and reach a bargaining position before the polls next year.

Congress is in alliance with Trinamool Congress at the Centre, where Mamata Banerjee is the Union railway minister She is also the leader of the opposition in West Bengal state. But Didi, as Ms. Banerjee is lovingly called, is a hard nut, who cannot be taken for granted or to a ride. She was in the Congress before broke away with it. Later she allied with the BJP in the National Democratic Alliance government, but the alliance did not last and she walked out of it.

In 2009 parliamentary elections Trinamool congress won 19 MP seats from West Bengal, whereas Congress could win only six. This was the best performance by any opposition party in West Bengal since the start of the left regime. It eclipsed even the Congress victory of 16 seats in 1984 due to the sympathy vote after Mrs. Indira Gandhi's death, hitherto considered the best opposition show. 1-2

And in the 2010 Municipal Elections in West Bengal, TMC won Kolkata Corporation in a margin of 62 seats with 95 out of 141 wards in the city. It also won Bidhan Nagar Corporation by a 16-9 seats margin.

Rahul Gandhi therefore lashes out at the CPI (M) with abandon. But he chooses his words carefully when alluding to TMC. He, therefore, ignored Banerjee's obvious jab at him as a seasonal bird, asking his audience, simply, "Do I look like a bird?"

In his first visit to West Bengal during September Gandhi had a closed door meeting with state Congress leaders and told them there was a fine borderline of trust, respect and understanding in an alliance and that should not be crossed.

He told the convention that the Congress was keen to preserve the partnership with the Trinamool Congress but it would have to be based on dignity. "In Bengal, we have a partnership with the TMC. We will have to walk alongside each other. But I think that if there is a partnership, it should be based on dignity. That would mean respecting the people," Rahul was quoted as saying.

Talking to Youth Congress workers, Rahul said, "Bengal me bhi Congress ko punarjivit karenge. Teen-chaar mahine me Bengal me badlaaw hoga. "(We will revive the Congress in Bengal. There will be a change in Bengal in three to four months). "I am sure the Youth Congress's strength will increase here,'' he said.

Political observers see Rahul's frequent visits to the state to boost the party's organizational strength and his subtle messages to alliance partner Trinamool Congress as a pre-cursor to fierce bargaining between the two parties during seat adjustment talks.

TMC leaders are watching carefully. It is a hard reality that "In the case of two parties in an alliance, the strength of one can increase only at the cost of the other." Therefore if Rahul's call leads to an increase in Youth Congress membership, it will certainly be at Trinamul's expense.

Others predict that Congress-TMC alliance can be possible only if the Congress can assure Mamata about its post-poll stand on the Left.

According to media reports a buzz about such a tie-up began after a one-and-a-half-hour meeting between Mamata Banerjee and Pranab Mukherjee at the foreign minister's Delhi residence in September. Mamata was accompanied by Samajwadi Party leader Amar Singh and Trinamul MP Mukul Roy. The details of the talks are not known but it is understood that the terms and conditions for an alliance were the main topic of discussions and that they ended on a hopeful note.

However, much ground has yet to be traversed. Many nuts and bolts have to be fixed. What Rahul means by a partnership based on "dignity," has to be defined. Some fierce bargaining is all that pundits predict at this stage. But, no one is going to lay a wager on what shape the alliance will take ultimately, or will there be an alliance at all.

However, one prediction that can be made fairly safely is that change of government is certain in West Bengal. There are clear signs that CPI (M) rule is going to end. But it is difficult to believe that the Congress, even with its alliance with TMC can return as the majority party. Rahul's efforts may give it a boost but West Bengal is neither Uttar Pradesh nor Tamil Nadu. He will have to work more intensively over time to replace Didi in the hearts of the people.