Brand Musharraf


Written by Javed Ansari • Region • August 2010

When a blog known as ATP - All Things Pakistan - ran an online survey in May, posing the question: ‘What is your reaction to Gen. Musharraf's announcement that he will return to Pakistan politics?', the results were a mixed bag, Great news, polled 26% respondents, good news, said 11% and irrelevant news, said 28%. Those who voted the news as ‘bad' were 9% and those who termed it as ‘terrible' accounted for 23%.

Considering the small size of the survey and the fact that the blog in question does not enjoy a very large following, this may not be an entirely faithful depiction of the feelings of the people of Pakistan vis-a-vis. Musharraf. It is, however, an indicator that brand Musharraf still has a share of mind in the masses, though it may not be termed as a large one at present. Regardless of the 200,000-plus fan following that he already enjoys on the social media, there is vast potential for the brand to expand its imprint across a wider public. It can happen if Musharraf plays his cards right, is not carried away by a burning desire to return home, come what may, and put things right and is more careful about the kind of people he gathers around himself.

Things appear to be moving forward as it was disclosed on Aug 1 at a press conference in Lahore that the former president would announce the manifesto of All Pakistan Muslim League (APML) as well as the date of his return to Pakistan in September. Talking to the media, Chaudhry Shahbaz Husain, APML chief coordinator, said Gen. Musharraf would stage his comeback before general elections, whether ‘mid-term' or ‘end-term'. He also said the party had been in touch with PML-Q leaders for a possible unification.

Dr. Sher Afgan Niazi, Maj-Gen (r) Rashid Qureshi, Fawad Chaudhry and Barrister Muhammad Ali Saif, were also present at the press conference. Asked if Gen. Musharraf would face cases regarding the Lal Masjid operation and Akbar Bugti's killing, Dr. Sher Afgan said he had challenged the government to initiate a probe into the cases and prosecute the former president.

Earlier, there were reports that Musharraf was seeking guarantees from Pakistan's international backers as well as the sitting government that he won't be indicted on criminal charges when he returns to Pakistan. He is said to enjoy very strong relations with the ruling families of Dubai and Abu Dhabi and it is these royal intermediaries who are reportedly trying to persuade the government to allow him to return.

According to some sources, lines of communication had been established between certain Arab rulers and Islamabad to discuss the former President's future in the running of Pakistan's affairs. President Asif Zardari is even said to have made a secret trip to Abu Dhabi in this connection some time back along with interior minister Rehman Malik. Whether the President's mission was to dissuade Pakistan's friends from facilitating Musharraf or otherwise, is not clear.

It is also reported that Pervez Musharraf has been seeking the Pakistan Army's services for his protection in the event of his return to the country. However, APML's Barrister Muhammad Ali Saif, a close Musharraf confidante, has denied that he has sought the army's security. He has said that while as former President and Chief of the Army Staff, Musharraf has the constitutional right to claim such security, protection would be provided to him on his return to Pakistan by a force of APML workers.

It is only fair to surmise that it will not be easy for Musharraf to pursue his political agenda once he returns. The sword of Damocles still hangs over his head for having, purportedly, ordered the killing of Akbar Bugti. He could also possibly face indictment in a high treason case under Article 6 of the Constitution. A Supreme Court verdict last year said the declaration of emergency by Musharraf on November 3, 2007 was unconstitutional. Some legal experts are of the opinion that only the government can move a court against an individual for a case under the said article.

Despite statements like the one recently made by Ijazul Haq that Musharraf has no future in the country's politics, there is pressure on the former president from a number of PML-Q politicians that he should return and lead an alliance of the All Pakistan Muslim League (APML) and the PML-Q. Earlier, following their dismal showing in the 2008 elections, the Chaudhrys of Gujrat had distanced themselves from their mentor, forgetting that it was Gen. Musharraf who had created the conditions for them to bounce back into politics by urging them to form the PML-Q after they had been marginalized by Nawaz Sharif. After Musharraf was forced to resign from the Presidency and was later driven into self-exile, it is these very beneficiaries of his generosity who gave the impression that there was no future ‘political' role for him in Pakistan.

Over past weeks, several of Musharraf's friends, among them Raza Hayat Hiraj, Ghulam Sarwar Khan, Chaudhury Shahbaz, Ishaq Khakwani, Raees Munir Ahmed and others have been meeting him in Dubai, though PML (Zia) chief Ijazul Haq and Humayun Akhtar Khan of PML-Q (like-minded group), have denied having made any contacts with the retired general in recent times.

Most of these politicians, when they meet Musharraf, tell him that they have no other political personality of international stature in sight and it is only he who can lead the political alliance that is likely to be formed this year. Musharraf has not indicated so far that he is willing to head such an alliance. For the present, he appears to be riding on the new hope that he feels he has kindled in the hearts of his countrymen, a renewed sense of awakening, particularly among younger Pakistanis, that he is the one who can lead Pakistan out of its present morass.

So far, besides Musharraf, no other Pakistani leader has managed to make an impact on the public through the viral media. However, there are many powerful quarters in the country that are not impressed by Musharraf's performance in this area. They are of the view that his self-proclaimed conquest of cyberspace does not coincide with the reality of an underdeveloped country.

Former 2-star army general Rashid Qureshi, spokesperson of Musharraf's political party, APML, admits that some parties are hostile to Musharraf though they themselves are not able to present any "solid" accusations against the former president. However, many people believe that the former general is now even more popular with the lower classes.

Nevertheless, fears have also been expressed in some circles that, considering the security situation and the court cases waiting for him, somehow it may not be possible for Musharraf to return home in the near future and take active part in politics. For this eventuality it is said that a Plan-B is in place, designed on the model of leadership by proxy. This would mean that Musharraf would stay in the UK or perhaps move to Dubai and then count on a group of trusted comrades to run the party while he calls the shots from abroad. Those who promote the idea forget that while this may have worked for the MQM chief Altaf Hussain who has all along been backed by a large and immensely loyal party network with deep roots in the masses, nothing of this sort exists for Musharraf and would take a very long time to nurture and develop.

But then, these are times of brand franchises. If Musharraf can be turned into a selling brand, all he would need is a good distribution network!