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 With mineral riches worth trillions of dollars under its soil, Afghanistan could enter a new era of economic prosperity, provided its western occupiers allowed it to do so. The recent statements about discovery of nearly $1 trillion worth of untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan have created excitement and hope for its economy. Senior American officials claim that the huge reserves could alter the face of the country and perhaps the Afghan war itself.
"This will become the backbone of the Afghan economy," said Jalil Jumriany, an adviser to the Afghan minister of mines. After the statement by Pentagon claiming the discovery, Afghan officials went a step further, saying the find was worth over $3 trillion. The deposits are said to comprise huge veins of iron, copper, cobalt, gold and critical industrial metals like lithium.
Currently, the Afghan economy is largely based on opium production and narcotics trafficking as well as aid from the United States and other countries. Afghanistan's gross domestic product is only about $12 billion. The value of the minerals discovery could really take the country forward but no one knows how much time it will take.
It is said that each ton of sea water contains one milligram of gold, but the Catch-22 is the cost, which outweighs the return. According to the calculations of Joseph Stiglitz, an economist and noble prize winner, as well as that of Linda Bilmesa Harvard professor, the Afghan-Iraq adventures venture have cost the Americans a cool $10 trillion. For them to extract hypothetically the $1 trillion worth of underground minerals, spread over years and years, like sea water gold will far outweigh the returns.
Many in the U.S. say this could be a distraction for the Americans to stay longer in Afghanistan as after nine long years, U.S. and NATO forces still have no idea about how to accomplish their mission there. The U.S. has tried everything such as change of command, troop surge, political maneuvers, search for "moderate" Taliban and economic incentives for the locals to win their hearts and minds.
The biggest shock for military planners and strategists in the Pentagon was the failure of the soft approach tried in certain parts of Afghanistan, after ouster of the Taliban from Kabul to get vital local support.
The expelled Commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, Gen. McChrystal has recently said that ‘Nobody is winning' in Afghanistan. The statement is nothing but an attempt to portray the situation in Afghanistan as a stalemate both for the allied forces and the Afghan Taliban. The U.S. and NATO forces have certainly prevented the Taliban from taking over Kabul and are protecting the government there as well but what about the rest of the country? Media reports about bribes to Taliban by U.S. private security companies and the Italian government for protection of their workers and soldiers are an indication of the Taliban's stranglehold.
After consolidating themselves outside the capital, Taliban have intensified suicide and ambush attacks on U.S. soldiers and on official buildings in Kabul, despite fortified protection by coalition forces. Besides this, the multiple military operations by coalition forces to crush the Taliban upheaval in the eastern provinces have also failed.
One major reason behind this failure is the inability of U.S. and NATO to convince local masses about their presence in Afghanistan. The U.S. invaded Afghanistan after 9/11 to hunt down Al-Qaeda and their supporter government of the Taliban back in 2002. After eight years, still 82% of Afghanistan is under Taliban control and the most discernible reason for this control is massive public support.
Historically, Afghans have never liked any foreign occupier and this is what is hurting coalition forces the most. The government they installed in Kabul after the ouster of the Taliban proved to be incompetent and corrupt. Due to the massive corruption by the Karzai government, the Afghan people wanted change but for the U.S. there was no better alternative than Karzai to provide political support to the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan.
Instead of investigating Karzai government's corruption and mismanagement, the U.S. and NATO are blaming Taliban tactics of instilling fear in the locals by executing and torturing everyone working for the coalition forces and the Afghan government. This may be true in some parts of Afghanistan but the masses cannot be suppressed by force for too long provided the state remains functional and alive to the situation. Even if this is accepted as a plausible reason for the success of the Taliban it will also prove that the U.S. and NATO have failed to bring the stability and prosperity which the Afghans were promised by the western coalition.
After the 2008 elections in the U.S. the world witnessed two major changes in the U.S. approach towards Global War on Terror. First, it announced it would adopt a multilateral approach and secondly, it redefined the battlefield of the Global War on Terror under its Af-Pak strategy.
The first prong of this strategy calls for more regional players involved in the already troubled Afghanistan. India, China, Iran and Russia all have very different strategic aims in and around Afghanistan and its eastern neighbor, Pakistan. It is beyond comprehension that how interests of Pakistan, India and Russia can converge on a common agenda. Involvement of countries with conflicting strategic interests is undermining Pakistan's internal security as well.
The involvement of these regional players can further trouble Pakistan by diminishing its economic clout over landlocked Afghanistan.
Pakistan is the only country without a formal border with Afghanistan. This provides an ideal opportunity to hostile intelligence agencies to sabotage law and order in Pakistan and even wage proxy wars against the state of Pakistan and its armed forces. Pakistan army's recent operations in Swat and FATA have proved this with clear circumstantial evidence of involvement of foreign players in helping the TTP and other banned terrorist outfits. One set of Pakistani analysts believes that Indian involvement in terrorism in Pakistan is not possible without U.S. consent.
In this manner, this strategic change has proved fatal for America's own interests in the region and its relationship with Pakistan. The second aspect of Af-Pak defines Pakistan along with Afghanistan as the battlefield in the war on terror. The U.S. decision to bracket Pakistan with Afghanistan has put a big question mark on the Obama administration regarding Pak-U.S. strategic relations.
After the announcement of the Af-Pak strategy, events have taken a very disturbing turn for the U.S. and NATO. Coupling Pakistan with Afghanistan in the war on terror has cast serious aspersions on U.S. intentions regarding Pakistan as an ally in its war on terror.
Pakistan army and intelligence establishments have been blamed for being complicit in the war on terror. U.S. is pressing Islamabad to fight "Afghan Taliban" and Al-Qaeda leadership in FATA area from where, according to U.S. intelligence, the entire Afghan resistance is being controlled. But ironically, so far not a single proof about presence of Taliban top brass or Al-Qaeda leadership on Pakistani soil has been produced by U.S.
Pakistan and U.S. are allies in the war on terror but both are accusing each other for failures in this war. Pakistan itself is a victim of terrorism and according to the Pakistani security establishment, this terrorism is pouring into Pakistan from Afghanistan. Failed U.S. strategies adopted in the war on terror over the last eight years are undermining regional stability as terrorism has increased. The U.S. has also failed in establishing any national institution in Afghanistan for governance and administration.
Therefore, where does Afghanistan stand after almost nine years? It was a failing state due to internal conflicts prior to 9/11. Now it is turning into an ever-expanding security black hole for the region and particularly for Pakistan. 
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