Mounting Challenges


Written by S.G. Jilanee • Region • July 2010

1-1 The Congress Party must put its house in order as a first priority to justify its popular mandate.

When the Congress won a convincing 262 seats in the 2009 elections there was euphoria. It was justified, too, because the Congress had improved upon its previous record by winning an additional 41 seats. With the support of several other parties it was able to form the government. And Manmohan Singh became the second prime minister after Jawaharlal Nehru to be sworn for a second consecutive term.

The euphoria was also contagious. It unleashed a wave of optimism that Congress would deliver this time. But that feel-good mood was short-lived. Infighting within the Congress seems to have taken the wind out of its sails rather too soon. Besides, the prime minister remains sort of aloof. Manmohan Singh rarely interacts with the media and even rarer are his attempts to reach out to the ordinary Indians and mould public opinion to help him in governance and rally support for his policies.

Observers point out that his message during his press conference marking the first anniversary of the UPA-II, "suggesting that India must reach 10 percent economic growth in coming years and also improve relations with Pakistan if it wants to reduce poverty and make rapid progress," was not inspirational but almost bureaucratic.

But, Manmohan Singh is basically an economist. Politics is not his cup of tea. He cannot muster the firepower of an Advani or a Sushma Swaraj. Manmohan Singh appears to have left the task of doing politics to Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul, which they are quite ably performing. Yet, he is the prime minister. And in a vibrant democracy constant communication between the "leader and the led" is an essential requirement.

As an economist he is also a realist who sees that achieving ambitious economic goals needs peaceful relations with neighbors. The stamp of his expertise can be seen in the remarkable economic recovery, during the one year of the UPA-II government.

For example: Against an IMF forecast of only 5.1% GDP growth in 2009, actual growth was an astonishing 7.2%, despite a major drought. The Sensex rose from 14,000 to 16,875 in 12 months and savings rate held up at around 34% despite the recession. Disinvestment is moving ahead slowly. The overall fiscal picture looks respectable. If the progress suffered due to political mismanagement and corruption, that is not Mr. Singh's fault.

At the same time, "the recent budget promises steady fiscal deficit reduction: 5.5% in 2010-11 followed by 4.4% and 4.1% in the next two years," analysts say. "Subsidies to oil companies will greatly exceed the budget provision, but may be more than offset by the telecom spectrum auction, which could fetch Rs. 60,000 crore."

The challenge to the government, thus, is from within rather than outside as the prime minister's pragmatism clashes with the jingoistic politicians even within his own party who critique him for being soft towards Pakistan and adopting a less proactive approach towards America's Af-Pak policy. He is perceived as not assertive enough to control them. The firm grip on power seems to be missing, which leads to despair.

UPA-II government's China policy has also come under question particularly because China is making its presence felt across the globe. In a statement Union Environment Minister, Jairam Ramesh blamed Indian security establishment for its "suspicious attitude" towards Chinese companies operating in India, which according to him, jeopardized the process of warming up of bilateral ties between the two neighbors, begun in consequence of their collaboration on global climate change negotiations. He accused the Indian government of being "overly defensive and alarmist" in dealing with Chinese companies.

At home, the internal security situation has deteriorated. The prime minister during his press conference denied that the government had underestimated the Maoists. He recalled that for the past three years he has called them India's gravest internal security threat. But it is the action that is lacking, which draws flak on UPA-II.

Worse, even on such a critical issue the ruling party lacks a consensus approach. Detractors of the Home Minister P Chidambaram, within the Congress seem more interested in neutralizing him than in confronting the Maoists. Congress General Secretary Digvijay Singh has not only openly questioned Chidambaram's approach in tackling Naxalism but also attacked him for not knowing the terrain of the area, besides accusing Chidambaram of ‘intellectual arrogance.'

The Naxalities cannot be defeated unless the government speaks in one voice. In consequence of a consensus approach, the security forces are demoralized and dying in large numbers at the hands of the Maoist insurgents.

Corruption in high places is another menace that has sapped away the vigor of the government. Telecom minister A Raja has been accused of gifting away thousands of crores in earlier telecom licenses, and his department was investigated by the CBI. And Shashi Tharoor had to resign after ethical questions were raised on the stake his fiancée had obtained in the IPL Kochi cricket team for free.

Many other politicians were also tainted by the IPL imbroglio. The All India Council of Technical Education was exposed as a hotbed of corruption, and the head of the Medical Council of India was arrested for taking bribes.

Political analysts list five reasons for why UPA-II is floundering, which may be put in quotes: "One, the economist-prime minister-led government is losing shine due to unusually high consumer price inflation of 17 percent.

"Two, in July 2009, Dr. Singh took a bold step by signing an agreement with his Pakistani counterpart at Sharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt. But his party forced him to water down the spirit behind the agreement where India gave diplomatic space to Pakistan in anticipation of better ties. In the early days of this UPA government, that event showed that Congress party Chief Sonia Gandhi and the party's popular mood would prevail in the India-Pakistan relationship.

"Three, in December 2009, the UPA's wise men blundered in response to the agitation for a separate state of Telangana. It showed that the government in New Delhi was disconnected from the people's thinking. In the coming winter, the agitation is likely to restart that would put the government in a bind.

"Four, Mr. Singh's inability to take action on the corruption charges against minister A Raja has shown Congress party bigwigs just where the buck stops in this coalition.

"Five, Manmohan Singh's cabinet seems disjointed. One example is the flop ‘austerity drive'. The government had declared that its ministries will have set agenda to take action in the first 100 days but even after 365 days, most ministries are struggling with the same old issues of governance. Air India is on deathbed and Aviation Minister Praful Patel of the Congress party's ally Nationalist Congress Party, is the only one being blamed - as if the prime minister has no role to play in saving India's national career.

"Sam Pitroda, adviser to the prime minister on innovations and technology, complains that his ideas are not moving fast. The party leaders find that their prime minister is not assertive in reining in the ministers belonging to allies, or even his own party. When the skyrocketing rising food grain prices became an issue, the Congress party blamed NCP chief Sharad Pawar, the agriculture minister. But stuff like fixing of minimum support price of food grains for farmers and the decision of import/export essential commodities is the government's collective responsibility."

The UPA II is a chaos. The divide between the government and the Congress party has widened. The Congress party and the government differ on practically all vital issues of internal and external security as discussed above. The Congress party's allies are enjoying power without subjecting themselves to any notion of moral conduct, discipline and accountability. Even Sonia Gandhi does not seem capable of disciplining the party MPs. In consequence the prime minister is perceived as a lame duck.

Restoring the prime minister's control over the party members in the parliament is, therefore, the most critical challenge for the UPA-II.