The latest manifestation of India's hegemonic ambitions is its 'Cold Start' doctrine that it has been perfecting over the past five years and which the Indian army chief has been talking about with more urgency in recent months.
Indian Army Chief's recent remarks about his country acquiring the capability to engage on two fronts - China and Pakistan, simultaneously, has rung alarm bells among its neighbors.
At a seminar, recently, Gen. Deepak Kapoor dwelt at some length on his country's military preparedness. The Times of India reported the remarks under the headline "Army reworks war doctrine" on December 30, last year.
He pointed out that the army had learnt its lesson from the Operation Parakaram. Launched in 2002, following the terrorist attack on the Lok Sabha, it was a failure insofar as it took the Indian army's strike formations almost a month to mobilize at the "border launch pads." The delay gave ample opportunity to Pakistan to shore up its defenses as well as time to the international community, primarily the U.S., to intervene.
In consequence India began to work on a Cold Start doctrine under which the army has practised over the last five years its "pro-active" war strategy "to mobilize fast and strike hard to pulverize the enemy. The "doctrine" basically states "the effort to acquire the ability to launch quick, decisive, limited strikes under a NBC (nuclear-chemical-biological) umbrella, and to seize some territory, before the international community can intervene, to be used as a post-conflict bargaining chip."
"A major leap in our approach to conduct of operations (since then) has been the successful firming-up of the cold start strategy (to be able to go to war promptly)," said Gen. Kapoor.
"The plan now is to launch self-contained and highly-mobile "battle groups", with Russian-origin T-90S tanks and upgraded T-72 M1 tanks at their core, adequately backed by air cover and artillery fire assaults, for rapid thrusts into enemy territory within 96 hours."
He identified several thrust areas that will drive the new doctrine. One, even as the armed forces prepare for their primary task of conventional wars, they must also factor in the eventuality of "a two-front war" breaking out. In tune with this, after acquiring a greater offensive punch along the entire western front with Pakistan by the creation of a new South-Western Army Command in 2005, India is now taking steps to strategically counter the stark military asymmetry with China in the eastern sector. There is now "a proportionate focus towards the western and north-eastern fronts," said Gen. Kapoor. Two, the army needs to "optimize" its capability to effectively counter "both military and non-military facets" of asymmetric and sub-conventional threats like WMD terrorism besides cyber, electronic and information warfare.
Three, the armed forces have to substantially enhance their strategic reach and out-of-area capabilities to protect India's geo-political interests stretching from Persian Gulf to Malacca Strait. "This would enable us to protect our island territories; as also give assistance to the littoral states in the Indian Ocean region," said Gen Kapoor.
Four, interdependence and operational synergy among Army, Navy and IAF must become the essence of strategic planning and execution in future wars. "For this, joint operations, strategic and space-based capability, ballistic missile defence and amphibious, air-borne and air-land operations must be addressed comprehensively," he said. And five, India must strive to achieve a technological edge over its adversaries. "Harnessing and exploitation of technology also includes integration of network centricity, decision-support systems, information warfare and electronic warfare into our operational plans," he added.
India has already signed agreements with the U.S.A. and France for cooperation in civilian nuclear technology. And now it has entered into a similar deal with Russia and South Korea.
Particularly important out of the six documents signed as a result of the summit, between Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, last December, was the agreement on civil nuclear and defence cooperation. The agreement stipulated setting up "more nuclear reactors in India, transferring a whole range of nuclear technologies and ensuring uninterrupted fuel supply indefinitely." They also allow India access to Russian enrichment and refueling technology and equipment, besides facilitating greater cooperation in joint research, development and design for next generation reactor.
It also gives reprocessing rights to India. This long-term agreement is in sharp contrast to the 123 pact with the U.S., because it does not impose any conditions on India, but provides guarantees against any curb in future. The agreement with U.S., on the other hand, envisages not only ending of the ongoing nuclear cooperation but also the return of equipment and fuel supplied by the U.S., in case the nuclear agreement is terminated. Manmohan Singh's visit to Moscow was followed by the visit of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak to New Delhi in early January, when, besides signing agreements on trade and other issues, both sides also agreed to facilitate development of a framework for bilateral civil nuclear cooperation.
These pacts for "civil" nuclear cooperation with the world's major powers are all of a piece with India's expansion of its military strength in recent years and fit snugly with reports about India refashioning itself as an armed power with global reach. These reports say that it is buying arms that are used for operations far from home, such as aircraft carriers, giant transport planes and airborne refueling tankers. Meanwhile, India plans to spend 30 billion dollars on military contracts by 2014. The project includes the purchase of 126 fighter jets worth 12 billion dollars, according to Indian newspaper reports.
India's first indigenously built nuclear propelled strategic submarine named 'Arihant', meaning 'Destroyer of the Enemies,' was launched on July 26 last year. And, in February, the keel was laid for the first indigenous aircraft carrier, making India the fourth nation to join a select club of designers and builders of over 40,000 tonne Aircraft Carriers. The ship will carry 30 aircraft.
Against this backdrop, the kerfuffle Gen. Kapoor's chest-thumping ignited in Pakistani media and government would be understandable. China, though it must not have dismissed the thrust of the General's remarks, could afford to remain quiet. But, Pakistan, with its bitter experience of the past had to take notice.
Commenting on the remarks of his Indian counterpart, Pakistan's army chief, Gen. Kayani, said that India was charting an "adventurous and dangerous path...." The Foreign Office followed up saying that Gen. Kapoor's remarks "betray a hostile intent as well as a hegemonic and jingoistic mindset." Even the U.S. ambassador in Pakistan, Anne Patterson, called them "silly."
Pakistan also expressed concern about "massive" buildup of arms by India and warned that it could jeopardize a regional balance. This statement by the National Command Authority (NCA) came against the backdrop of the announcement by the Russian and Indian officials that Russia would lease its new Nerpa nuclear-powered submarine to India this year.
"Massive inductions of advanced weapon systems including installation of ABMs (anti-ballistic missiles), build-up of nuclear arsenal and delivery systems ... tend to destabilize the regional balance," the NCA said in a statement.
"This relentless pursuit of military preponderance will have severe consequences for peace and security in South Asia as well as for the Indian Ocean region. Pakistan cannot be oblivious to these developments."
Referring to reported remarks of the Indian army chief that India was capable of conducting conventional military strikes "under a nuclear umbrella," the NCA observed that "Such irresponsible statements reflected a hegemonic mindset, oblivious to the dangerous implications of adventurism in a nuclearized context."
All these developments indicate that India is trying to mature into a conventional great power. It is justified, to entertain such ambition, nevertheless, given its economic progress in recent years. Equally justified is the concern among its neighbors, - and especially, Pakistan, in light of the record of their relations with India for all these three-and-sixty years. Kapoor's statement puts Pakistan on notice. Yet, it should control emotion and brace up to face the stark reality. That will call for the utmost in statesmanship. But even before that it must put its house in order. 
S. G. Jilanee is a senior political analyst and the former editor of Southasia Magazine.
|