 Until both the Presidential and Parliamentary elections are over in Sri Lanka, there can hardly be any move on the ethnic conflict resolution or reconciliation fronts. The intensity of the internal civil war between the Sri Lankan armed forces and the LTTE, which fought to carve out a separate state for the minority Tamils in the north-east of the South Asian island nation, was considered one of the most protracted ethnic conflicts in the world. Many observers believed that the conflict could be solved only through political engagement between the protagonists, largely due to the notion that one side cannot militarily overcome the other. The Sri Lankan forces surprised almost everyone by decisively and comprehensively defeating the LTTE in May 2009.
An over-confident LTTE, not only walked out of the peace talks which were sponsored by the Royal Norwegian government in April 2003, but also forced the new government headed by Mahinda Rajapaksa into war, called the Eelam War IV. Once the war resumed, the government carried out a concerted campaign to snuff out the LTTE by military means. The government's determination combined with unprecedented international approval, shaped largely by the post- 9/11 international realities, overt and covert support from India, and military supplies from other regional allies like China and Pakistan, enabled the government to finish off the LTTE. The killing of Velupillai Prabhakaran, the founder leader of the rebels, on May 18, 2009, effectively marked the end of the LTTE as a military force.
International Campaign
In order to make political capital out of the war victory, the government declared that the war was won, while effectively extending the campaign to the international arena. During the war, the international branches of the LTTE were active in collecting money, mainly from the Tamil Diaspora scattered around the world, particularly the West, and coordinating arms procurement and supplies. With the collapse of the LTTE locally, the international branches got reactivated, resulting in two major developments: (1) Kumaran Pathmanathan, lately the man in-charge of the international affairs, emerged declaring himself the new leader of the LTTE, and (2) a declaration was made that a trans-national government would be formed to carry forward the struggle.
For the government, therefore, the threat of separation remained, necessitating the extension of the war into the international arena. In a concerted and a well-coordinated effort, the government arrested Kumaran Pathmanathan, allegedly in Malaysia and transported him to Sri Lanka. Currently, he is under Sri Lankan state custody. This came as a major blow for the campaign to revive the LTTE internationally. The effort to establish the trans-national government lacks vigor and progress. Therefore, it is safe to assume that the Sri Lankan state has succeeded in destroying the LTTE locally as a military force and to a large extent curtailing its international activities. The international campaign against the remnants of the rebels continues to date. It is unlikely that the LTTE or any other Tamil armed group for that matter will emerge in the short term with the capacity to threaten the Sri Lankan state.
Ethnic Reconciliation
 The end of the war presented a historical opportunity to resolve the outstanding political issues of the Tamil people and introduce measures for ethnic reconciliation in order to move from what could be called the prevailing transitional peace to stable peace. The collapse of the LTTE, especially in the South, created notions that the conflict had been resolved. The Tamils, however, believe that what exists currently in Sri Lanka is not a post-conflict situation, but a post-war one. They point out that the political issues of the Tamils remain to be solved albeit with a package, which entails devolution of power to the north-eastern provinces. The international community, which to a large extent supported the military campaign against the LTTE, mounted pressure on the government to devolve power to the disputed provinces. It is clear now that until the presidential and parliamentary elections, slated to be held in the first half of 2010, the present government will not be able to present a serious proposal for ethnic conflict resolution.
The opportunity for reconciliation was also missed due to the over-emphasis on the national security concerns by the government in power. On the premise that the threat of the LTTE still exists, the government refused to relax the Emergency Regulations and alter Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA). However, the most prominent factor that created doubts, frustration and suspicion on the bonafides of the government among the Tamils was the setting up of camps in the Vanni region with restrictions on the movement of the people who were brought to the camps as internally displaced. The government insisted that (1) the camps are necessary to screen the suspected LTTE cadres who were hiding among the civilian population and (2) the people cannot be resettled in their native places before clearing the landmines in the region. The camps however, damaged Tamil confidence that the Tamil people can live in Sri Lanka as equal citizens. Reconciliation, therefore, requires much more strong confidence-building measures than ever before.
Presidential Election
The attention on ethnic conflict resolution and/or reconciliation was effectively removed by the split within the politico-military alliance which defeated the LTTE. General Sarath Fonseka, who led the military campaign, was made the new Chief of Defense Staff (CDS) almost immediately after the end of the war, having effectively removed his control over the Army. Claiming that the new position was in fact a demotion, as it had coordinating responsibilities only, and was taken over by the government due to the fear of a military coup d'etat, the General resigned. Now he will be contesting the forthcoming presidential election as a common candidate of the opposition parties, effectively challenging President Mahinda Rajapaksa's chance of an easy victory. Both are vying primarily for Sinhala Buddhist endorsement while luring in minority votes. Until both elections are over, there will be hardly any move on the ethnic conflict resolution or reconciliation front.
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