 The seriousness of the climate change issue calls for immediate measures and all eyes are set on the forthcoming climate summit in Copenhagen for some real answers.In 2012 the Kyoto Protocol to prevent climate changes and global warming runs out. To keep the process on the line there is an urgent need for a new climate protocol. At the Climate Conference in Copenhagen, being held from December 6 to 18, 2009, the parties to the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), meet for the last time at the government level before the climate agreement is renewed.
A total of 8000 people are expected to be in Copenhagen in the days of the summit, including government representatives from 192 countries as well as other officials, NGOs and journalists. The government of Denmark is hosting the Conference, represented by Connie Hedegaard, the Danish Minister of Climate and Energy and Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen.
What makes the Copenhagen moot so urgent in view of the world's rapidly changing climate is that successive scientific reports, notably those from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), have come to ever firmer conclusions about humankind's influence on the modern-day climate and about the impacts of rising temperatures. Two years ago, at the UN climate talks held in Bali, governments agreed to start work on a new global agreement.
The Copenhagen talks will mark the end of that two-year period. Governments hope to leave the Danish capital having completed a new deal.
The Earth's climate has always changed naturally over time. For example, variability in the planet's orbit alters its distance from the Sun, which has given rise to major Ice Ages and intervening warmer periods. According to the last IPCC report, it is more than 90% probable that humankind is largely responsible for the modern-day climate change. The principal cause is burning fossil fuels - coal, oil and gas. This produces carbon dioxide (CO2), which - added to the CO2 present naturally in the Earth's atmosphere - acts as a kind of blanket, trapping more of the Sun's energy and warming the Earth's surface. Deforestation and processes that release other greenhouse gases such as methane also contribute.
Although the initial impact is a rise in average temperatures around the world - "global warming" - this also produces changes in rainfall patterns, rising sea levels, changes to the difference in temperatures between night and day, and so on. This more complex set of disturbances has acquired the label "climate change" - sometimes more accurately called "anthropogenic (human-made) climate change".
The Copenhagen talks sit within the framework of the UNFCCC, established at the Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit in 1992. In 1997, the UNFCCC spawned the Kyoto Protocol. But neither of these agreements could curb the growth in greenhouse gas emissions sufficiently to avoid the climate impacts projected by the IPCC. In particular, the Kyoto Protocol's targets for reducing emissions apply only to a small set of countries and expire in 2012. Governments want a new treaty that is bigger, bolder, wider-ranging and more sophisticated than the Kyoto agreement.
In June, the G8 and a number of large developing countries agreed that the average temperature rise since pre-industrial times should be limited to 2C (3.6F). In principle, they are looking to the Copenhagen treaty to curb the growth in greenhouse gas emissions enough to keep the world within that limit.
Here a lot of issues are involved. Industrialized nations will set targets for reducing their greenhouse gas emissions in order to mitigate climate change. The key date for these commitments is 2020, although some countries are looking beyond that, to 2050. Australia, the EU, Japan and New Zealand have already said what they are prepared to do so by 2020. Richer developing countries are also likely to be asked to constrain their emissions. If they do make any pledges, they are likely to restrain the growth of emissions rather than making actual cuts. Their commitments are likely to be expressed in terms of a reduction in emissions growth of a certain percentage compared with "business as usual".
In order to help developing countries constrain their greenhouse gas emissions, industrialised nations have agreed in principle to help them in areas such as renewable energy. Funding clean technologies will be part of any deal Developing countries are looking for mechanisms that can speed up this technology transfer. Many countries are thinking about how to prepare for the impacts of climate change - what sorts of adaptation will be necessary.
These include measures such as building sea defences, securing fresh water supplies and developing new crop varieties.
Developing countries are looking for substantial and reliable finance to help them adapt. Their argument is that as the industrialised world has caused the problem, it must pay to sort it out. Measures to protect forests will be a component of the deal.
In general, fossil fuels provide us with our cheapest sources of energy. The main route to reducing greenhouse gas emissions is to avoid burning fossil fuels; so a successful treaty would almost certainly make energy more expensive. There are many different analyses of how much it would cost to make this transition quickly enough to avert "dangerous" climate change. Developing countries are looking for money in the order of hundreds of billions of dollars each year for mitigation.
A number of studies also suggest that a further $100bn per year or thereabouts will be needed to help poorer countries adapt. By comparison, the amount of overseas aid currently given each year by rich countries is in the region of $100bn.
Four broad outcomes are possible from the Copenhagen summit: a comprehensive deal with all loose ends tied up a deal agreeing the "big picture", but with lots of details remaining to be thrashed out over the coming months or years adjournment of the COP, probably until midway through 2010 breakdown.
Almost every government attending the talks wants a deal, and they want it soon, in order that all the essential ingredients are agreed by the time the Kyoto Protocol's targets expire in 2012. But many details remain to be worked out; and as any treaty must be agreed by consensus, there is lots of potential for disagreement, and any single country can derail negotiations.
Would a Copenhagen deal solve climate change? The global average temperature has already risen by about 0.7C since pre-industrial times. In some parts of the world this is already having impacts - and a Copenhagen deal could not stop those impacts, although it could provide funding to help deal with some of the consequences.
A strong Copenhagen deal might keep the temperature rise under 2C; but given uncertainties in how the atmosphere and oceans respond to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases, it might not. This is why developing countries put such an emphasis on adaptation, which they argue is necessary already. IPCC figures suggest that to have a reasonable chance of avoiding 2C, global emissions would need to peak and start to decline within about 15-20 years.Currently, the cuts pledged by industrialised nations are not enough to halt the overall global rise in emissions. Whatever happens in Copenhagen, further meetings will almost certainly be necessary to finalise the "rules" of any new treaty.
|
Show/hide comments
Show/hide comment form
