The New Wind Down East


Written by Tehreem Mahmood • Region • October 2009

What does the change in leadership mean for the Japan-US relationship? In the era of change, Japan has recently witnessed a huge and the most dynamic change in its political setup. After ruling since 1955, Japan’s ruling party Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost to the opposition party, Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) on August 30th this year. According to the Japanese constitution, this victory to DJP pledged its leader Yukio Hatoyama to become the next Prime Minister of Japan. The formal ceremony was held on September 16, 2009. The DPJ was founded in the late 1900s by Yukio Hatoyama when several political parties of Japan collided to become one, and finally, this is the first time ever for the party to take on ‘the big responsibility’.

What brought this opposition to the ruling seats were their agendas to work and spend in Japan’s households and its suffering public sectors. Unlike LDP’s strong support for U.S. alliance, DPJ had always opposed the role of Japanese government as a ‘yes-man’ to America. The party is a novice if we consider the long era of LDP and has a load of challenges to deal with. Although the DPJ has raised expectations that Japan will lead in the effort to build a world free of nuclear weapons, the party is still adamant about working on the domestic issues first, but the world is turning all-eyes to the foreign policy of Japan’s newly formed government.

Earlier this year, a senior member of DPJ visiting Washington alarmed the Obama administration by proclaiming that if the opposition comes to power, “everything will change in the US-Japan alliance.” Since then, troubled officials of the new U.S. government have been watching over two of the DPJ Policy Manifestos dating from 2005 to 2007, to make sure if this were to be true. These two manifestoes guaranteed damage on both sides of the alliance if implemented by the new government.
These take account of ‘revising the sensitive Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) that governs how US troops in Japan are treated; blocking anti-terrorism refuelling operations by the Maritime Self Defence Forces (MSDF) in the Indian Ocean; and opposing the US-Japan agreement on relocating Marine bases and about half the Marines now on Okinawa. Some DPJ leaders have also made noise about declassifying all secret agreements related to nuclear weapons between the US and Japan’, writes Michael J. Green of Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

Asao, a member of the House of Councilors in the Diet (national legislature), previously this year commented that he would also inspect the LDP’s stand on spending millions of dollars over shifting Okinawa based US marines and their families to Guam. He also indicated changes in policies towards Afghanistan would be another priority of the newly formed government. He deems government’s role in Afghanistan would be more effective as a ‘peace broker’ between the Afghan government and the moderate elements of Afghan Taliban. He said “The strength we have is that we have no bad track record in Afghanistan. We haven’t sent any troops to Afghanistan yet; therefore, there’s no collateral damage caused by our self-defence forces.” He also informed that the American demand for replenishing fuel and Japan would use its ships more usefully in warfare with piracy.

Sounding stringent towards US before the elections, DPJ although knew how to be a part of the government but did not have any experience of actually running it. So, it is quite understandable that their diplomatic policies might take a more flexible line as the party began to reconsider foreign policies as now it is - in point of fact running- the country.

Yukio Hatoyama, the leader of DPJ, being hailed as Asia’s ‘first Third way’ leader, thinks that U.S.-Japan alliance should be on equal basis which means pulling out of programs that indicate Japan’s subservience to Washington - reducing the number of American troops in Okinawa is an important goal for DJP . About Japan’s political and economic independence from the United States, he said in the infamous op-ed published on New York Times website, just a night before the elections that Japan is “fighting to retain its position as the world’s dominant power” and China which is “seeking ways to become dominant.” This article underwent ruthless criticism in .S and more in Japan, but the DJP leader in reply said that his remarks were misunderstood. His comments were to reflect his enthusiasm in building the economy of his country. Japan is the no. 2 to the world super-power and the Japanese leader only wants to maintain Japan’s current world status despite the entire domestic crisis. This was the first indication of a positive change in the attitude of the DPJ leader after winning the elections.

For the United States, Japan is a means to its several ends. As mentioned, U.S. marines camp in Japan for attacking or fighting the war against terror in Asia. Plus, Japan is a strong economic alliance for America. After DJP’s attitude towards its foreign policy, the Obama administration is both alarmed and looking forward to rebuilding a strong relationship with Japan. The G-20 summit, held at Pittsburgh this year would determine the Japan-US alliance in a more clear and greater manner.

It is nice to hope for the best but it is smart to prepare for the injuries as well. If the Japan-US alliance does not work, the US will have to seek for alternatives. Such alternatives can be China and India. The US already has strong economic ties with these two fast developing countries. As far as war against terror is concerned, Pakistan is already working for the US on that. China and India are racing to become world super powers as soon as possible and it will be beneficial for the two, if Japan shows some weakness in becoming a powerful alliance to the US.

Japan saw a huge success and a huge defeat recently. For the LDPs, it was definitely a shocker but for DPJs, it was a victory the Japanese nation can never possibly witness again. There are a lot of unanswered questions as far as the Japanese foreign policy is concerned but we hope to see this strong nation fighting the challenges and triumphing. It’s a tale of the times. All the countries must consider the experience of DJP and support it for the sake of peace in the region.