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No End in Sight

Written by Farzana Shah  •  Region  •  September 2009 PDF Print E-mail

 

ground_zeroOn 9/11 2001, terror attacks in New York not only brought the edifice of the World Trade Center crumbling down but also changed the political backdrop of the world, particularly that of South Asia. Political scenario got changed dramatically in this part of the world due to policies opted by the United States against global terrorism. US waged a massive “War against terrorism” focused on capturing the Al-Qaeda and this policy towards terrorism was supported by the United Nations as well.

 

After the US attack on Afghanistan with the mandate of UN in 2002, South Asian countries, particularly Pakistan were forced to change their internal and external polices as well. Apart from Pakistan other countries in South Asia like India and Afghanistan also changed polices for multiple vertexes.

It was during this time that Pakistan became part of a global coalition in the war against terror and adopted the stance as a focal point in its internal and foreign policy. This was rather a surefire decision by the Musharraf regime partly to secure his military coup of 1999 against an elected government and partly for bringing Pakistan out of a fragile economic situation, resultant from international sanctions as an aftermath of Pakistan's nuclear tests in 1998.

Pakistan had to take many U-turns on its foreign policy. Within the country, Musharaff's decision of joining war against terror got a major backlash from media, masses and political parties alike. On the other hand Pakistan became victim of Western criticism for harbouring terrorist network on its soil. This was pursued with new fervor after attacks on the Indian parliament in 2001. Pakistan and India reached a brink of war and observed a 10-month long military standoff at their border. In 2002, deadlock broke only after Pakistan announced it will not let its territory be used for violence.

In 2003-04, US influence led Pakistan to move its forces into FATA for the first time in the history. Though the country never faced any security problem before but the move brought it under attack from the newly formed Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). TTP asserted its influence in South Waziristan to a great extent in 2005.

The war later proved to be a disaster not only for Pakistan but also for the world. Pakistan's adoption of US dictated policies created a rift between the masses and the Government. The regime's failure to take the masses into confidence spread discontent about the war being that against Islam.

Instead of any reduction in violence at local or at international level this war turned Pakistan into almost an anarchic state by end of 2007 and global security situation also got more worrisome as a result of post 9/11 policies of Pakistan, US and NATO. In Pakistan violence spread out from limited sectarian sphere into whole realm of society. Suicide bombing became a frequent thing and violence and terror became typical trademarks of Pakistan.

Moreover, US war against Taliban brought an anti-Pakistan government into power in Afghanistan. This paved the way for anti-Pakistan intelligence networks to establish their outposts on Pak-Afghan border. Moreover Indian and Israeli intelligence agencies particularly the Indian RAW agents pose great threat to the security of Pakistan and whose involvement in violence in Baluchistan and Swat region of NWFP in Pakistan has been delivered to Pakistani leadership in joint sessions of Parliament.

Post 9/11 situation and US policies were more inline with Indian designs in region. Though India had also joined the international coalition against terrorism but kept its internal disputes distant from this war. India played its card more strategically when it approached solving insurgencies but that was nothing new in Indian internal policy. More visible change was Indian active participation in global war on terrorism in Afghanistan. India increased its diplomatic presence in every major city in Afghanistan. It put Afghanistan as one of its top priorities in its foreign policy.

Though India had an old desire to gain access to Middle East and Afghanistan but recently it has formulated her foreign policy for achieving this goal more proactively. That's the reason India never took part in any military operation in Afghanistan but limited herself to infrastructure work and building roads including one from Afghanistan to an Iranian seaport.

The next step in Indian policy was to ensure passage for its goods and products through Pakistani soil as Pakistan is the only country having land route from India to Afghanistan. Pakistan and Afghanistan signed an agreement in US earlier this year to allow any third country to use Pakistani routes for transporting products to Afghanistan.

Taking advantage of changed geopolitical environment in Afghanistan and Pakistan, India also actively pursued its agenda for nuclear technology. In 2005, US put all its weight in favour of India by signing a nuclear deal.

The deal has made it possible for US to supply nuclear plants and fuel to India which otherwise was an impossibility since India has not signed NPT which is mandatory for any country for getting nuclear fuel for civilian nuclear power houses from nuclear supplier group. The US influence in Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) has helped India to get one time exception from group's rule about providing nuclear fuel to any-non signatory of NPT.

Politics in South Asia cannot be completed without mentioning Kashmir. India got much needed moral support to its argument about cross border terrorism in Kashmir from Pakistan following latter's U-turn over this critical issue. Pakistan in 2004, announced a unilateral ceasefire on Line of Control (LOC).

India was pushing the idea of cross border terrorism in Kashmir to international community for the last many years but 9/11 provided real opportunity to India to promote Kashmir as its integral part and showcasing Pakistan as a country interfering in Indian state. Although contrary to UN resolutions, India has succeeded in gaining popular support globally as Pakistan has turned its focus more on war on terror while Kashmir has gone down in its priority list.

Afghanistan is latest battle field for Pakistan's and India's interests. Its strategic placement makes it a gateway to Central Asia for both the countries.

Post 9/11, Afghanistan got involved in the war on terror though no Aghan National was involved in the attack. However the US strategy on Afghanistan is backfiring for US just like it did previously for the British and Russians. Afghanistan has historically been known as a graveyard for empires and US economy which was thriving before the attack is now trembling. US is spending a lot on its forces in Afghanistan and is still unable to bring any stability to the country.

US never tried any political solution and resultantly poor Afghan people continue to suffer in the battle between Taliban and US/NATO forces. It is not just Afghanistan that has become unstable but the entire region has been affected after the 2002 US invasion of Afghanistan. Balance of power in subcontinent has shifted towards India and other anti-Pakistan countries. Pakistan perhaps is the biggest victim of this war which shows no signs of ending soon. Multiple low and high level insurgencies have erupted in Northern and Western provinces of the country as a result of polices adopted post 9/11. While India enjoys relative stability and is able to capitalise on its economic strongholds, Pakistan and Afghanistan remain on shaky grounds.


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