How Powerful is the Ethnic Card?

Ethnicity is considered as a ‘time bomb’ and a lethal weapon which if used can destabilize a society. Depending on the nature of society, it is easy to mobilize people on ethnic and religious grounds than on genuine economic and political issues. If one sees the present day world map, out of 200 odd states, around 150 can trace their origin on lingual and ethnic grounds. When there is economic deprivation, social backwardness and illiteracy, it becomes easy for ethnic forces to play politics and mobilize the sentiments of people on the basis of their racial, cultural and lingual identities. Ethnicity is a double-edged sword and is also considered as a divisive and cohesive force depending on how it is used by those who try to seek legitimacy on by playing the ethnic card.

The first assertion of ethnicity in the formative phase of Pakistan was felt during the language movement in the then East Pakistan which reached its climax in February 1952 when three people (including two students) were killed when police fired on demonstrators near Dhaka Medical College who were demanding the granting of equal status of Bengali language along with Urdu language. It was the language movement and central government’s policy to suppress that movement by force which galvanized into a massive assertion of Bengali nationalism culminating into the emergence of Awami League as the sole representative of the people of East Pakistan. Being a majority province, the people of the then East Pakistan expected better share in power and in the affairs of governance. Despite contributing the bulk of foreign exchange earnings, East Pakistan remained backward. When the election results of December 1970 which gave electoral majority to Awami League representing the people of East Pakistan were rejected by the West Pakistani elite the outcome was civil war and the break-up of Pakistan. In fact, the disintegration of Pakistan was the first example of such kind in the post second world war period. The rest is history.

Much has been said and written about how the bond of Islam which was supposed to keep Pakistan together proved to be highly fragile and within quarter of a century the country disintegrated because the force of ethnicity prevailed over religion. It was not only in the then East Pakistan (which was also a majority province of Pakistan) where sense of deprivation prevailed because of economic and political exploitation and the suppression of their Bengali identity, in the province of Sindh also an ethnic nationalist movement spearheaded by the Jeya Sindh movement was struggling for the rights of native Sindhi population and the protection of Sindhi language. The first language riots in Sindh took place in July 1972 which augmented ethnic divide of Sindh province between the native Sindhi speaking rural and migrant Urdu speaking urban Sindh.

When the bond of religion became weak because of the policies of military and bureaucratic elites and the failure of state to transform Pakistan as a democratic welfare state, centrifugal forces gained ground. When feudal, clergy, bureaucratic and military classes collaborated to deny the people of Pakistan a democratic way of life, ethnic forces got a lot of space to push for their demands. The post-1971 Pakistan witnessed the assertion of ethnic identities in Balochistan and Sindh, both rural and urban for their rights. East Pakistan, Sindh and Balochistan were the three provinces of Pakistan where since the partition days confrontation between state and centrifugal forces composed of Bengali, Baloch and Sindhi nationalism caused enormous damage to national integration and weakened those who wanted Pakistan to remain as a stable state. The military operation in Balochistan (1974-1977) and in Sindh (1983, 1992) provides an ample evidence in terms of the consistent policy of state to use colossal force against what they argue anti-state and unpatriotic elements.

The first important indication of ethnic politics as a major factor in national elections was observed in 1970 when there was a clear electoral verdict on ethnic grounds. Awami League which represented the Bengali majority in the then East Pakistan swept elections by securing 160 or 162 seats whereas, in the western wing, Mr. Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party secured majority of seats in Punjab and Sindh provinces. In Balochistan and NWFP the nationalist Baloch and Pahstuns united under National Awami Party (NAP) made sizeable gains. The 1977 elections held during the first PPP regime were made controversial because of the charges of massive rigging by the opposition Pakistan National Alliance (PNA). After the dismissal of Z.A. Bhutto’s government by General Zia-ul-Haq on July 5, 1977, the issue of ethnicity became an important issue in Pakistan’s politics as the step to oust him from power and hang him on the charge of murder by the Supreme Court augmented polarization between Sindh and Punjab, the two major provinces of Pakistan. In the Supreme Court’s verdict, those judges who had awarded death penalty to Mr. Bhutto happened to be from Punjab and those who had exonerated him belonged to the minority provinces. The hanging of a ‘Sindhi Prime Minister’ by the military deepened sense of ill-will and hatred among the majority of Sindhis against Punjab, the power bastion of Punjab. February 1985 elections which were held by the military government of General Zia-ul-Haq lacked credibility because these polls had taken place on non-party basis. During the general elections held in November1988, PPP got overwhelming majority of seats from rural Sindh and in Punjab it got a marginal edge over the Islami Jamhori Ithehad (Islamic Democratic Alliance). The core of IJI belonged to Punjab led by the Pakistan Muslim League. In Urban Sindh, the Mohajir Quami Movement (MQM) secured landslide victory. Therefore, 1988 elections proved the fact that in Punjab and Sindh people had voted on ethnic lines as urban Sindh voted for MQM, rural Sindh for PPP and Punjab was divided between PPP and IJI. The slogan of Sindhi, Punjabi and Mohajir nationalism got an impetus after 1988 general elections. In 1990 October general elections, the electoral strength of PPP in Punjab got further eroded as it was routed by its opponents led by Muslim League leader Nawaz Sharif. PPP’s vote bank shrank to rural Sindh, whereas, in Urban Sindh, MQM maintained its electoral edge. In Balochistan and NWFP, religious, nationalist and mainstream political parties PPP and PML got seats. During 1993 elections, the situation got better for PPP in Punjab as it performed well and was able to form a coalition government with its allies in that provinces. Rural Sindh remained under the control of PPP. MQM had boycotted National Assembly polls but participated in provincial assembly elections. During the 1997 elections, PPP’s electoral strengthen in Punjab and Sindh received a major setback as it secured only 18 seats out of 200 seats. Even in Sindh, PPP’s vote bank eroded which benefited other parties. During 2002 elections which were held under the patronage of General Pervez Musharraf, ethnicity was not a major factor because religious parties formed an alliance under the name of Muththaida Majlis Amal (MMA) which secured majority in NWFP and performed better in Balochistan. It also got seats in Punjab and Sindh. Although, PPP had emerged as the single largest party in October 2002 elections, it was kept out of power by encouraging a split within that party and also in PML (N). In urban Sindh, MQM (renamed as Mutthada Quami Movement) retained its electoral edge and in Punjab, PML (Q) was carved out of PML (N). Whereas, in NWFP and Balochistan MMA formed the government because of the poor show of nationalist forces in the two provinces.

Three assessments could be made from the general elections of 1970, 1988, 1990, 1993, 1997 and 2002. First, in all these elections, there has been steady growth of ethno-nationalist forces who also had their presence in mainstream political parties like PPP and Pakistan Muslim League. After 1988 elections, the Nawaz Sharif faction of PML was blamed for talking about the interests of Punjab and promoting Punjabi chauvinism. Second, as far as PPP is concerned, it has always been considered as a Sindh specific party. Although, since the days of Z.A. Bhutto till today, it is believed that Punjab is the bastion of PPP, but after Bhutto’s hanging and the subsequent polarization between Sindh and Punjab, PPP’s graph in Punjab went downwards. 1970 elections were the only elections, in which PPP got landslide victory from Punjab but since then, in subsequent elections, it has been losing in that province. Perhaps given the fact that the core of leadership of PPP belongs to Sindh and PML(N) has a better leadership in that province as compared to PPP, its position in Punjab has suffered an electoral decline.

Third, the erosion of national parties is another reason for the resurgence of ethnicity as a factor in general elections. The absence of a national level leadership in any political party left a vacuum which has been filled by ethnic-nationalist parties.

Election results of February 18, 2008 also depicted the presence of ethnic factor. The following election table will highlight how ethnicity played a role in the general elections of February 18, 2008.

Unlike 2002 general elections when ethno-nationalist parties suffered a setback because of the upsurge of religious right under the MMA, in February 2008 elections, the scenario changed because in NWFP, which in 2002 elections had largely voted for MMA because of the implications of 9/11, in 2008 the Pashtun nationalist Awami National Party (ANP) performed better and reclaimed its earlier electoral position. If one analyzes the election results of February 2008 elections four important linkages could be made as far as ethnicity and ethnic nationalism are concerned. First, the majority of Sindhi speaking people of Sindh voted for PPP. Second, majority of Urdu speaking people in Sindh voted for MQM. Third, in Punjab the PML (N) secured majority of seats while it got no seat in Sindh and in Balochistan. Fourth, the ANP which has its roots in NWFP got majority of seats in that province, whereas, it secured 2 seats in Sindh and 4 in Balochistan. ANP failed to get any seat from Punjab. For the first time, ANP got seats from Sindh which indicated the electoral presence of Pashtuns in Sindh assembly.

Although PPP and PML (Q) could be called as a true national parties because both secured seats from all the four provinces while other parties like PML(N) failed to win a single seat from Sindh and Balochistan, ANP couldn’t win a seat in Punjab. MQM failed to secure a single seat from Balochistan, Punjab and NWFP. Two reasons could be given for voters giving their choice for parties on ethnic and regional basis. First, decades of military dictatorship and the weakening of democratic political process prevented the emergence of national leadership. Even national parties like the PPP and PML also possess some ethnic leanings. Particularly, during the military rule of General Zia-ul-Haq, systematic efforts were made to patronize ethnic and sectarian groups and parties so as to neutralize PPP. Second, national parties lack vibrant political program and charismatic leadership and their leaders avoid public appearance because of fear of their lives. In fact, the erosion of values which in the past counted a lot in doing politics and maintaining some degree of tolerance, these things have ceased to exist in prevailing circumstances. Presently, the criminalization of politics promoted corrupt and dishonest elements in different political parties who used elections for grabbing more power and resources. As far as religious parties are concerned, Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) Jamiat-i-Ulemai Islam (JUI) and Jamiat-e-Ulmai-Pakistan (JUP) have national standing but these parties which formed the core of MMA developed differences in 2007 on the issue of movement against the Musharraf regime resulting into the collapse of MMA. Even these religious parties retained ethnic leanings because JUI and JI having their vote bank in NWFP and the vote bank of JI and JUP in Sindh got eroded because of MQM.

As long as there is no sense of direction in national politics and those who claim to represent the people of Pakistan remain uncommitted and unconcerned to the critical issues faced by this country, one can expect the deepening of ethnic and religious cleavages. Ethnicity is not a negative term provided those who want to defend the rights of deprived ethnic and lingual groups are above contradictions. The reality is, behind the ‘ethic card’ the so-called nationalist leaders have their own vested interests: they seldom do things which can raise the socio-economic conditions of people. One glaring example of hypocrisy of nationalist leaders is from Balochistan, NWFP and Sindh who raise ethnic slogans for votes but once elected and in power do nothing for reducing the backwardness of their areas.

As long as Pakistan is a victim of illiteracy, economic and social backwardness and lacks a sincere leadership to seriously deal with critical issues faced by the people of this country, one can expect the exploitation of people either on ethnic, sectarian or religious grounds. It is in the interest of feudal, tribal, military, bureaucratic, political and religious stake holders to prevent the process of social change so that they can remain beneficiaries of the system which is highly exploitive and manipulative and elections provide legitimacy to all such groups who raise ethnic and religious slogans for the purpose of power and privileges. The results of February 2008 elections and other previous polls failed to bring any qualitative social, economic and political change in Pakistan because those who contested these elections and got elected to a large extent were only interested in grabbing more and more wealth and perks.

It suits the elites of Pakistan, whether belonging to feudal, clergy, political, bureaucratic, military and from the corporate sector to keep things as they are particularly in terms of emancipation of women and all such sections of society who are a victim of systematic exploitation since centuries and the creation of Pakistan failed to make any different to better their socio-economic conditions. Does it mean that elections, if contested by the same groups will not make any difference in the political horizon of Pakistan and if this is     true than where is the way out?

Moonis Ahmar is a Visiting DAAD Fellow at the Willy Brandt School of Public Policy, University of Erfurt, Germany. He is also Professor of International Relations at the University of Karachi and Director, Program on Peace Studies and Conflict Resolution.

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