PAK-SINO DEVELOPMENT: Sweeter than Honey

What lies ahead for Islamabad and Beijing? Keeping up with a number of developments at the regional and international level, there are many challenges that both countries must address to further cement their friendship.

Pakistan and China are celebrating 2011 as a year of friendship to mark the 60th year of the establishment of diplomatic relations. Pakistan-China friendship, which is described by the leadership of both countries as higher than the mountains, deeper than the oceans, and of late, sweeter than honey, is a unique case in the international system we are living in. Although it is not a relationship based on love, as many would like us to believe, but rather on sound geopolitical and realistic considerations, it is unique in a number of ways, though its continuity can’t be taken as given. Would Islamabad and Beijing ever lose warmth in their relationship? In keeping with a number of developments at regional and international levels, are there any challenges which both need to address to make this friendship stronger? Or, in simpler words, what lies ahead for Islamabad and Beijing?

Relations between the two countries were established in the 1950s when Pakistan decided to recognize the People’s Republic of China. The relationship strengthened in the late 50s and 60s and since then, both countries have cooperated and supported each other on various forums. China ended Pakistan’s search for a balancer in its relations with India. Both countries exchange high-level visits regularly and have signed a number of pacts and agreements. China provides Pakistan with economic, military and technical aid and assistance and, on its part, Pakistan supports China on issues of Tibet, Xinjiang and human rights, etc. Pakistan played a pivotal role in bringing U.S. and China together and arranged Henry Kissinger’s secret visit to soften ground for U.S. President Richard Nixon’s historic visit to China. Pakistan also supported and assisted China in establishing contacts with the Muslim world.

Pakistan and China are collaborating in a number of sectors, especially defense, trade, energy and development. Since the 1960s, China has been the most important supplier of military equipment to Pakistan. The JF-17 Thunder is a mark of this defense cooperation. China has also helped Pakistan in establishing new and improved existing ammunition factories. Economic relationship between both countries is improving and they signed a free trade agreement few years back.

China has invested in a number of projects in Pakistan, mostly related to energy production, building roads, gold and copper mines, etc. The most important and commonly known joint project is the deep-sea port at Gwadar. According to one Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report, “the complex, inaugurated in December 2008 and now fully operational, provides a deep-sea port, warehouses, and industrial facilities for more than twenty countries. China provided much of the technical assistance and 80 percent of the funds for construction of the port. In return for providing most of the labor and capital for the project, China gains strategic access to the Persian Gulf: the port is just 180 nautical miles from the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 % of all globally traded oil is shipped. This enables China to diversify and secure its crude oil import routes and provides the landlocked and oil and natural gas-rich Xinjiang province with access to the Arabian Sea.”

However, there are a few issues which require immediate attention to avoid any complications in the relationship. Prime amongst them is the issue of ETIM and its activities in Xinjiang. Earlier in the year, on July 18, a series of bomb blasts and other violent attacks took place in Xinjiang. The Muslim militants accepted responsibility for these attacks. Chinese media pointed out that these militants were trained in the Pakistani tribal areas. Pakistan needs to address this problem immediately.

Many in the West and also in India believe that China is systematically expanding its influence in South Asia. According to Summit Ganguly of the Indiana University, Pakistan is also not the only South Asian nation China is interested in strengthening ties with. Beijing has expanded its relations with Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan and the Maldives. China has a clear-cut strategy for using its leverage in the region. They’re going to continue to work with India’s neighbors as a strategic hedge against New Delhi, but Pakistan will remain central to this strategy. Another view is that peace between India and Pakistan is, in fact, in China’s interest. According to this view, any confrontation between India and Pakistan would put Beijing in the position of having to choose between the two countries and draw the United States further into the region.

While it is reasonable to argue that there are no chances of any major problems emerging in the Pakistan-China relationship, a lot needs to be done. There are certain Chinese realities that people at the helm of affairs in Islamabad must take into account. China, at present, is in the process of ensuring its emergence on the world stage as a global player and is not willing to let anything come in between in achieving this goal. Despite the fact that both Pakistan and China share their distrust for India and USA, China is not willing to openly confront it for any reason. China would continue to support Pakistan and there are a number of examples to support this line of argument. However, it would not ignore its own agenda and the objectives it wants to achieve by 2050.

Dr. Farrukh Saleem, in his excellent 2009 article, ‘The Pecking Man’ raised an important point: the new Pecking Man has a singular goal - to double, triple and quadruple China’s $4 trillion GDP by 2050. And, any country that can help China go where it wants to go is a friend. Yes, China has over the past few years invested $198 million into the Gwadar port project but there’s evidence aplenty that it is in no mood to take America head on… there’s a strategic angle to the Pakistan-China relationship. Pakistan, for instance, can become a geographical impediment to America’s China-containment policy. China also uses Pakistan to cap India’s geo-strategic ambitions… the new Pecking Man is pragmatic and realistic, astute and hard-boiled. We ought to trade some of our emotionalism in exchange for some of their pragmatism. The question is if they would be willing to do that (The Pecking Man, The News on Sunday, May 31, 2009).

China is Pakistan’s all-weather and most trusted friend and every step should be taken to ensure that this relationship strengthens further in the days ahead. However, at the same time, one should also remember that there is no such thing as permanent friendships in international politics, just interests.  

Rizwan Zeb is a doctoral candidate at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Western Australia and a former Benjamin Meaker Visiting Professor of Politics, at the University of Bristol, UK. He is also a visiting scholar at the Brookings Institution and is currently working on a book on the Strategic Culture of Pakistan.

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