Everest of Problems

The people of Nepal have been imbued with new hopes of achieving a working democratic polity with the induction of Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai.  Much like the previous three communist governments, the installation of the fourth communist government has generated a new hope and optimism for the peace process and given the former Hindu kingdom a new constitution to institutionalize itself as a federal democratic republic.

The hope is partly because the Nepalese people are sick and tired of their corrupt and inept leaders and Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai brings in fresh air, and partly because of the international support, especially from India and the United States.

But Bhattarai’s success – or failure – will to a large extent be determined by how he moves within his Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M), with his undependable coalition partners and with the main opposition on his twin agenda of a permanent peace and a democratic constitution.

Bhattarai’s move on the peace process is already creating problems, not just within his own UCPN-M, of which he is one of the three vice chairmen, but also from the main opposition – the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), the second and third largest political formations in parliament. It is going to be tough test for Bhattarai’s political acumen and leadership in most difficult circumstances. He may have good intentions. After assuming office, he shunned luxury SUVs his predecessors loved in favor of a nondescript “Mustang” jeep assembled in Nepal from motor parts brought in from India.

Risks from Within
Good intentions apart, Bhattarai will need a great deal of luck. There was no doubt that UCPN-M Chairman Dahal himself was desperate to be prime minister again. So why did he so easily give up in Bhattarai’s favor? Dahal, who is cunning and has rich oratory power, is a red rag to the Indian bull. When he resigned in 2009 after less than a year in power, he had blamed India. Neither the Nepali Congress, nor the CPN-UML, nor even the UDMF liked Dahal. Contrast this with Bhattarai who is perceived among his Maoist colleagues as India’s blue-eyed boy. Many inside the UCPN-M, familiar with Dahal’s style, wonder why the helmsman made room for his junior colleague so easily. Was his intention to remain firm as party leader by shunting Bhattarai as prime minister?

But Bhattarai has no strong backing within the party except for the gang of four – Vice Chairmen Bhattarai, Mohan Baidya, Narayan Kaji Shrestha, and party General Secretary Ram Bahadur Thapa – joined hands to form a new power equation to challenge Dahal’s reluctance to make room for Bhattarai as the new prime minister. Initially, it looked like a new equation in a sense isolated the party chairman. However, it collapsed as soon as it was born. This happened soon after Bhattarai took over as Nepal’s fourth communist prime minister in less than three years.

The members of the new equation had a lot of expectations from Bhattarai but they all felt betrayed. Shrestha was furious because he was refused a position of a deputy prime minister and finance minister. Baidya was angry because Bhattarai denied his protégé a deputy prime minister and foreign affairs portfolio. Thapa was mad because his protégé was denied a deputy prime minister and finance portfolio. All three colleagues now feel betrayed by Bhattarai and are out for revenge.

The factional fight among the Maoists came out in the open after keys to the arms containers were handed over to the Army Integration Special Committee, as was “unanimously” decided by the UCPN-M. When the keys were finally handed over, Baidya and Thapa fired the first salvo by describing the key transfer as “abrupt and surprising” designed to “disarm and dissolve the people’s liberation army.” In a joint statement on September 1, they “vehemently opposed and condemned” the decision and wanted it withdrawn immediately. Their supporters also disrupted vehicle movement for a few hours in Kathmandu and took out torch light processions to condemn the decision.

Initially, it was believed that the storm in the tea cup will subside once Baidya protégé, C. P. Gajurel, was named deputy prime minister and minister for foreign affairs, a job now being held by Shrestha, who since then switched loyalty. During the negotiations for the distribution of the cabinet portfolios, all three factional leaders within the UCPN-M – Dahal, Bhattarai and Baidya – had their nominees and it was more or less agreed. But Baidya refused to recommend names saying the dispute on the keys handover be resolved first. The party central committee is meeting soon to resolve the dispute.

The Madheshi Conundrum
The other major threat to government stability comes from the United Democratic Madheshi Front, a consortium of assorted regional parties representing the Tarai bordering India, a key ally of the UCPN-M. The problem with the UDMF is that it is a faction ridden group with more generals than the soldiers. Even in the Tarai region, which they claim to represent, they are icons of corruption, immorality and untrustworthiness. They are perceived as leaders who would do anything for money and ministerial births. The UCPN-M and UDMF alliance is founded on a four-point pact between the two. The deal is being vehemently opposed by the opposition.

Both the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML have said the deal will further worsen the impunity. For example, the proposed changes in the arms and ammunition legislation to reduce the quasi judicial authority of the chief district officer will only boost the morale of the 100-plus armed groups fanning all corners in the Madhesh. Secondly, the group entry of 10,000 young people from Madhesh will only weaken the unified character of the Nepal Army. Last but not the least, federalism with the right to self determination is also challenged because some Madheshi leaders are opposed to “one Madhesh, one province.” Tharu leaders say they are not part of the Madhesh and want their own state.

Given the enormity of the challenges the UCPN-M led government of Prime Minister Bhattarai faces in the light of all promises, agreements, deals and commitments, it will be difficult for him to please them all because many of these commitments and pledges are a farce and even contradictory. He should nevertheless be given the benefit of the doubt. This is especially so when nothing dramatic is expected until mid-October when the Nepalese will be busy dining and wining during the month-long festivals of Dashain and Tihar. The long-term prospects of political stability, if not economic prosperity, will of course, depend on the pace of progress Bhattarai makes in concluding the peace process.  

Dr. Jan Sharma is a Research Fellow at Sangam Institute in Kathmandu and is the author of Democracy Without Roots, Pilgrims Publishing, India; 2002

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