Emerging Courtship

Following back to back visits of Indian officials to Dhaka in the last year, the climax in Indo-Bangladesh relations will occur when the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visits Bangladesh in early September. Furthermore, on July 25, Sonia Gandhi paid her first visit to Dhaka to receive the award for her mother-in-law, Indira Gandhi, for the latter’s contributions to the freedom struggle in 1971. Commenting on the visit, Ravni Thakur, Joint Secretary in the Foreign Affairs Department of Congress said, “India has a special relationship with Bangladesh and in particular Gandhi family was very close to late Sheikh Mujibur Rehman as also Sheikh Hasina Wajed. Ms. Gandhi is going there not only as Congress president but also in the capacity of UPA Chairperson. This is a very welcome move.”

It is worth mentioning here that on January 12, 2010, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was conferred the prestigious Indira Gandhi Prize for Peace, Disarmament and Development for 2009.  Awami League, which from any standard has a soft corner for India since the beginning is, however, confronted with a major challenge of responding to critics who question pursuing pro-Indian policy regardless of contentious issues between the two neighbors. If BNP is not warm vis-à-vis India because of what some circles call as the dominating, aggressive and exploitive interests of New Delhi, Awami League is all the way in favor of forging close relations with its huge neighbor.

Regardless of the Indian and Pakistani factor in Bangladeshi politics in recent years, New Delhi has managed to make significant inroads in economic, political and security areas of Bangladesh. It is not only the visits of high profile Indian leaders to Bangladesh but the depth of Indo-Bangladesh relations which has changed the perceptions of even those Bangladeshis who harbored ill-will and suspicion about New Delhi’s role in their country. In view of India’s booming economy and its growing clout in the region and outside; its generous aid and assistance to Bangladesh in key sectors of infrastructure, one can observe the surge of “positive image” of India in Bangladesh. The weakening of Pakistani state and society in terms of serious economic crisis, political instability and terrorism provided India substantial space to broaden its constituency in Bangladesh. Forces which were skeptical about the Indian ambitions in Bangladesh are also divided as the Bangladeshi military is not resisting the Indian influence as it used to resist in the past, ambitions which can help surge the Indo-Bangladesh courtship promoted during the third regime of Awami League.

While the visit of Sonia Gandhi to Dhaka was limited to a social event, the visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will have a heavy agenda, as mentioned in the 30 July issue of The Economist (London). For instance, he will sign deals on sensitive matters like sharing rivers, sending electricity over the border, settling disputed patches of territory on the 4,095 km (2,500 mile) long frontier and also dealing with the issue of the Indian Border Security Force (BSF) tackling with smuggling of trade and illegal crossing of border. India also provided a loan of U.S. $ 1 billion to Bangladesh for the development of its infrastructure, particularly in the energy and communication sector.

According to the details available on Indo-Bangladesh relations, in the recent past, important steps were taken by both sides during the second tenure of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government. These steps indicated the formulation of a well-structured framework of Indo-Bangladesh relations including a wide spectrum of issues ranging from cultural, economic, trade, commercial, educational, security, border management, boundary and sharing of river waters. The most difficult issue at the moment which confronts India and Bangladesh is the sharing of 54 common rivers in such a manner that the two sides feel contented and satisfied. The signing of the Ganges Water Treaty between the two countries on December 12, 1996 is considered a milestone in resolving the water conflict.

Yet, there are issues which the Indian Prime Minister will have to deal with while discussing matters with his Bangladeshi counterpart. The issues of border management and trade also seem to cast a negative shadow on Indo-Bangladesh relations because the latter complains of unjust and unfair treatment in view of the periodic killing of Bangladeshis by the BSF and the trade balance being in favor of India. An institutional mechanism has been built by the two countries to deal with the following contentious issues:

1. Joint Working Group on security and border management. Several agreements were concluded on mutual legal assistance in criminal matters; transfer of sentenced persons and combating international terrorism, organized crime and illicit drug trafficking.
2. Joint Rivers Commission for sharing river waters.
3. Joint Economic Commission to deal with trade issues.
4. Joint Group of Customs Officials.

On July 6, the Indian Foreign Minister S M Krishna visited Bangladesh to discuss further strengthening of ties with Dhaka. But, his visit was overshadowed because of the remarks made by the Indian Prime Minister at the meeting with Indian editors in the first week of July in New Delhi in which he said that “25% of Bangladeshi population was anti-India and in the clutches of the ISI.” His remarks offended many Bangladeshis who termed such views expressed by the highest Indian authority as being offensive and a blatant interference in the affairs of their country. Yet, there was no widespread popular resentment against what the Indian Prime Minister stated about the so-called anti-Indian lobby!

In the presence of an effective constituency in Bangladesh favoring New Delhi, India feels confident that it can further deepen its influence in this South Asian Muslim country. India also knows that it cannot establish an over tutelage over Bangladesh because of the high sensitivity of the majority of people of that country. It can only use “soft power” in the form of aid, trade, technology and cultural exchanges to broaden its support base. The so-called anti-Indian and pro-Pakistan lobby in Bangladesh has, however, shrunk because of the gloomy situation in Pakistan and marginalization of the BNP.

In an editorial, The Financial Express (January 25, 2011), stated: “A momentum is seen towards taking Indo-Bangladesh relations to a higher level of understanding and cooperation for mutual benefits. Indian authorities should appreciate the fact that Bangladesh is a reliable friend which does not pose itself as a staging area to add to its insecurity. Besides, Bangladesh has been playing a constructive role in facilitating connectivity for all entities in South Asian region that would be especially helpful for India. Bangladesh, on its part is dependent on India as a major source of meeting its import needs of various goods. It values Indian cooperation in meeting the common security needs of both countries.”

In view of the fluid situation in Bangladesh, it will be risky on the part of New Delhi to put all its eggs in one basket. Solely relying on the Awami League to guarantee its foothold in Bangladesh may also not work because as proved in the post-1971 history of that country, the party in power may not return to power in the next elections. Sheikh Hasina, despite the opposition of BNP is trying to do away with the caretaker setup for holding general elections but even then, she cannot be sure of winning the next elections. As rightly stated in the July 30 issue of The Economist, “for India, however, the risk is that it is betting too heavily on Sheikh Hasina, who is becoming increasingly autocrat. Opposition boycott of parliament and general strikes are run-off-the-mill. Corruption flourishes at levels astonishing even by South Asian standards. A June decision to rewrite the constitution looks to be a blunt power grab, letting the government run the next general election by scrapping a caretaker arrangement. Sheikh Hasina is building a personality cult around her murdered father.” For that purpose, India needs to rethink its strategy of seeking more options rather than just relying on the Awami League. Much depends on how the people in Bangladesh and various interest groups are able to have a positive image of India.

A  Bangladeshi perspective on Indo-Bangladesh relations with reference to the visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was depicted in the August 3, 2001 issue of The New Age (Dhaka). Prof. Delawar Hossain, Chairman of the International Relations Department, Dhaka University, while giving an interview to that newspaper said: “India should offer unilateral concessions. They should unilaterally reduce tariff on import from Bangladesh and remove non-tariff barriers.” He further added: “… major attitudinal and behavioral changes on the part of the members of the Border Security Force of India were imperative for an end to killing of civilians on the border.”

Never before, the situation was so conducive to transforming Indian ambitions into reality. Such ambitions are not tantamount to colonizing Bangladesh but to make sure that no other country than India will have an edge in terms of influencing the politics, economy and foreign policy.

Moonis Ahmar is a Visiting DAAD Fellow at the Willy Brandt School of Public Policy, University of Erfurt, Germany. He is also Professor of International Relations at the University of Karachi and Director, Program on Peace Studies and Conflict Resolution.

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