At the Crossroads

A close look at the contemporary setting of Bangladesh reveals that the country is moving in the right direction as far its economy is concerned, but in political terms, numerous fault lines continue to threaten its road to progress and development.

Forty years after separating from Pakistan in unpleasant circumstances, Bangladesh is no more considered an "International Basket" or as an absolute poverty ridden country but it is predicted if Dhaka maintains its current economic growth rate of 6 percent, by 2015, it can raise its level from least developing to a developing country. How Bangladesh will view itself after a decade, i.e. at the time of fifty years of its independence? How the social sector of Bangladesh, which is still grappling with backwardness and poverty can be better and how political stability can help 140 million people of Bangladesh raise their quality of life? Sadly, forty years after emerging as a nation-state, Bangladesh is still vulnerable to political chaos and disorder. The schism between ruling Awami League (AL) and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) continues. Unabated strikes, agitation and political violence tend to put a question mark on the prospects of Bangladesh as a modern and developed state. Recently, BNP called for a whole day nation-wide strike protesting against price hike, power cuts and bad governance. It has also boycotted the session of parliament, an act which was also witnessed when AL was in opposition during the last term of Prime Minister Khaleda Zia.

Four major factors should be taken into account examining why Bangladesh is at the crossroads. First, the failure of politicians to put their own house in order and provide people a better and practicable vision and hope for a secure future. Since the collapse of Ershad's regime in 1990 and the ushering of civilian era, the politics and governance of Bangladesh has been dominated by two Begums: Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia with caretakers in between. Both AL and BNP since 1991 have been in power but the political animosity, grudge and personality cult is so deep rooted that Bangladesh is unable to improve its mode of governance resulting into frustration and polarization in society. The miserable electoral rout of BNP in the last general elections failed to cause any positive transformation in that party and its leadership continue to follow a hard line and aggressive stance against the ruling AL. Two decades of confrontation between the two Begums not only resulted into dozens of strikes but it also impeded economic progress. Second, despite four decades of independence, Bangladesh has not been able to decide which way it should go. Should it be an Islamic or a secular state? During the rule of Presidents Ziaur Rehman and H. M. Ershad, Bangladesh transformed from a secular to an Islamic state but in recent times, it is perceived that the government of Sheikh Hasina is again trying to restore the secular credentials of Bangladesh. Still, there exists a dichotomy between Bengali and Bangladeshi nationalism as the former is advocated by the AL and the latter is practiced by the BNP. Here the issue of the Indian role in Bangladesh also comes up as AL favoring secular order composed of Bengali nationalism favor close relations with New Delhi, whereas, BNP supporting Bangladeshi nationalism wants to retain the Islamic characteristics of Bangladesh and resist what is perceived as the looming 'Indian domination.'

Third, economic development, both at the micro and macro level is the main determining factor for the future of Bangladesh. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bangladesh is 275.5 billion dollars which was half of the size two decades ago and one-third at the time of independence. The decline in population growth and also reduction in the poverty level also present an optimistic sign for Bangladesh.

As a result of above mentioned measures, foreign exchange reserves of Bangladesh improved, its exports also went up and the growth rate reached at 6 percent. Flow of remittances provides a suitable space to the government to control its balance of payments. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and International Aid, including from India also improved substantially. According to an editorial published in Daily Star, Dhaka, "the UNDP's Human Development Report 2010 makes note of a remarkable improvement in life expectancy in Bangladesh. In the last forty years, life expectancy has surged by 23 years, which is again a good indication of the possibilities before the country. The need now is focus. We cannot afford to lose more time in trying to catch up with the rest of the world. Let us be under no illusion that as a nation we have emerged from the trap of poverty. Overall, our rank is 129 among a total of 169 nations. Of course, there is no reason to feel complacent about such a placing. With all the necessary steps that need to and must be taken in the varied region of national development, we can surely look forward to a better position on the global development index in the future. The prerequisite here is a focused assessment of the ground realities and a subsequent carving out of a path toward making things better than what we have achieved so far." 

Highlighting the achievements of Bangladesh in the last forty years, Shahid Alam in his article, "Surprising the cassandras: Bangladesh 1971-2011" published in January 1, 2011 issue of Daily Sun, Dhaka says that, "Among the other notable achievements, Bangladesh can boast of overcoming the curse of famine, cutting down on aid dependence, keeping up a respectable level of macroeconomic stability, and promoting NGOs as an alternative delivery mechanism."

The positive economic indicators in Bangladesh mean that the country is able to create congenial climate for foreign investments. Unlike Pakistan, where periodic acts of terror deter foreign investments, there is no such problem in Bangladesh. However, in order to ensure smooth foreign investments, Bangladesh will have to pursue a two-pronged approach. First, improve its infrastructure and the smooth supply of utilities and second, eradicate corruption. As long as these two things are sorted out, Bangladesh cannot hope to deal with its economic ordeals. Particularly, corruption is a major challenge for Bangladesh, a fact which was also mentioned in its annual report by the Berlin based Transparency International.

Finally, dealing with the challenge of extremism and fanaticism cannot be undermined as far as Bangladesh is concerned. While, the threat of terrorism in Bangladesh has always remained on the horizon, yet in the last couple of years, there has been a downward trend as far as the activities of various terrorist groups are concerned. It does not mean that the threat of terrorism has disappeared in Bangladesh but it has a potential to again cause major panic and chaos in society. One positive development in Bangladesh is the marginalization of hard line and fanatic religious groups as they are denied space to carry out their operations.

All in all, Bangladesh after four decades of its independence is certainly in a better shape but as pointed out earlier the unresolved issues of governance, corruption, political rivalries, intolerant behavior of competing politicians and lack of proper infrastructure impede the process of progress and modernization. The marginalization of the role of military in the politics and governance of Bangladesh is another positive factor which will go a long way in strengthening democracy and political pluralism in that country. The role of civil society organizations in bringing positive change in Bangladeshi society needs to be strengthened so that issues faced by people at the grassroots level are resolved.

Moonis Ahmar is a Visiting DAAD Fellow at the Willy Brandt School of Public Policy, University of Erfurt, Germany. He is also Professor of International Relations at the University of Karachi and Director, Program on Peace Studies and Conflict Resolution.

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