Each dead Pashtun is not a talisman of success, as NATO press releases claim, nor is each civilian killed merely “regrettable”. It recruits 10 more to the enemy. Every Taliban elder murdered breeds another, younger one, frantic for vengeance.” Simon Jenkins; A history of folly, from the Trojan Horse to Afghanistan; Guardian 29 July 2010.
The American war in Afghanistan entered its tenth year in October. But there are no signs of victory for the invading forces. In the first flush of his election victory Obama dispatched 30,000 additional troops to bolster the strength to 70,000. Further 30,000 were added this year under pressure from the army. With 50,000 NATO troops, the occupation forces now number around 150,000 strong, besides untold number of Special Forces and CIA agents.
In July President Obama replaced Gen. Stanley McChrystal for his loose tongue, with Gen. David Patreus as the overall commander of U.S.-NATO forces, because Patreus is known as the “wizard of Iraq” for his successful counterinsurgency measures in that country. He is therefore straining every nerve and using all the tricks in his bag to bring about a semblance of success in time for the presidential review of the war strategy due in December to justify the trust Obama has reposed in him.
Increased air and ground attacks around Kandahar have dislodged the Taliban from areas surrounding Kandahar. Special Forces are launching multiple raids every night, New York Times Patreus is employing the help of former mujahedeen commanders to recruit policemen from local villages to fight the Taliban on the pattern of the Awakening Council that he had raised in Iraq to combat al Qaeda. Simultaneously Patreus claims to facilitating contacts between Taliban and Karzai for peace talks.
But, the Independent’s columnist James Fergusson, who visited Chak, a district just 40 miles from Kabul recently, after three years, reports that “the Taliban’s grip is far stronger than the West will admit.” Likewise, in September, NATO claimed killing or capturing 105 Taliban leaders across Afghanistan. Yet, while they gloated over this rate of attrition and were saying that that Taliban “can’t replace leaders fast enough,” the latter denied they have been disrupted in any way.
Taliban sources rubbish such claims as propaganda to mislead their rank and file. They also deny taking part in any peace negotiations with Karzai government which they call a U.S. puppet and insist that the occupation should be vacated as a precondition to any talks. The consensus is that the Taliban may be down here and there but they are far from being “out.” In Marja which the U.S. troops raided with much fanfare in February, the marines remain pinned down while the Taliban are sneaking back. Similarly after the recent attacks around Kandahar they melted away, biding for a propitious moment to return.
Analysts agree that Taliban are very resilient. Often, if the occupation forces kill a commander, he is soon replaced. U.S.-NATO have killed or captured only mid-level fighters but their leadership remains intact. The Taliban are well abreast of world affairs. According to Fergusson they are studying the Wikileaks report on Afghanistan. They have timed attacks to coincide with major events. Four suicide bombers attacked the main UN compound in western Herat city in October. The assault, they claimed, was in response to the UN Security Council renewing the mandate for NATO forces in Afghanistan 10 days earlier.
There are signs that Taliban seem to be positioning themselves for takeover when it is time. Their recent statements indicate a change in their attitudes from the past. A political message from Mullah Omar, in September “assures the Afghans of good governance by a Taliban government, run by a consultative body based on “talent and honesty” promoting unity and the rights of tribes and women.” The message even addressed the need “to address pollution and to combat the trade in illegal drugs.” And, finally, in their latest message addressed to the US Congress, Taliban ask. “Will you be able to obtain your long-term goals in the region only through the war in Afghanistan?”
As Gen. Patreus tries to present a rosy picture, Taliban attacks on troops and fuel convoys continue unabated. In November, on the anniversary of their fall nine years ago, Taliban attacked the main airport and a foreign military base at Jalalabad. The reports about casualties were conflicting. ISAF claimed killing anywhere between seven and ten attackers, but did not disclose its own casualty figures. Taliban spokesman admitted that 14 suicide bombers were involved in the attack that killed 30 NATO troops. The next day another five NATO troops were killed bring the total of US-NATO fatalities to 31 in November.
Meanwhile, President Karzai, in a lengthy interview to the Washington Post in November, said that the United States must reduce the visibility and intensity of its military operations in Afghanistan and end the U.S. Special Operations Forces night raids because they aggravate Afghans and could exacerbate the Taliban insurgency.
Karzai said that he wanted American troops off the roads and out of Afghan homes and that the long-term presence of so many foreign soldiers would only worsen the war. “The time has come to reduce military operations,” Karzai said. “The time has come to reduce the presence of, you know, boots in Afghanistan … to reduce the intrusiveness into the daily Afghan life.”
Karzai’s comments might roil Gen. Petraeus, who has made capture-and-kill missions the centerpiece of his counterinsurgency strategy and claims that the 30,000 new troops have made substantial progress in beating back the insurgency. But they cannot be dismissed offhand.
The upcoming review, therefore, will be critical. It will have to spelling out a strategy in concrete terms. The military’s appetite for human blood remains insatiate. It is likely to recommend dragging the war on to at least 2014. The idea may also find support from the Congress controlled by Republicans.
President Obama on the other hand might like to stick to his original agenda of starting drawdown of troops from July 2011. He has many other related issues to ponder, such as the drain on the economy due the war. “The American economy is on its knees,” says George Herbert in the NY Times. “Nearly 44 million people were living in poverty last year, which is more than 14 percent of the population. That is ….the highest percentage in 15 years, and the highest number in more than a half-century of record-keeping. Millions more are teetering on the edge, poised to fall into poverty.”
So, if he looks forward to a second term Obama must focus more attention on domestic issue, and set about finding ways to create jobs as the foremost priority.
However, in laying out a new strategy on this America’s longest war in history, Obama must also take note of the role of regional players; -Pakistan, India and China and Iran in post-war Afghanistan. That itself would demand the best of statesmanship. 
|
Show/hide comments
Show/hide comment form
