Dynasties come and go, and survive well in an atmosphere of change. Will the PPP survive the death of it's leader - probably, because the feudal system that she was a part of is not threatened by the forthcoming elections, writes Chris Cork
Political dynasties, as with regal dynasties, are usually drawn from the upper echelons of the societies they often rule. It is rare for them to have their origins in poverty. For the most part they originate inside powerful and wealthy groups and their power and wealth takes them to the leadership of their nations. Such dynasties are also prone to internal conflict and tension, and for a few, the curse of successive deaths at the hands of those who oppose them.
The Kennedy’s and the Ghandi’s have been touched by the curse and the Bhutto’s too, with Benazir Bhutto dying on December 27th 2007 in circumstances which are still far from clear. However she died, be it unhappy accident or wilful carelessness in exposing herself or by the assassin’s bullet; she leaves a yawning gulf at the top of the Pakistan Peoples Party – the PPP. Zulfikar, Murtaza and now Benazir all met untimely and violent ends, and the surviving members of the large and rich-as-Croesus Bhutto clan now find themselves sitting on a row of uncomfortable seats.
Before looking at where the PPP may be going and who may be leading it wherever it goes – a brief look back. Despite the laudatory and sycophantic memories of Ms. Bhutto penned by an adoring but purblind fan base, a critical look at her legacy reveals a threadbare and insubstantial record of achievement during her two terms as Prime Minister. Her first tenure was brief, and it could be argued that expecting her government to do much in terms of reform in such a short space of time is unreasonable; but her second term, could have equally been expected to yield more of substance.
In neither terms were the issues of reform and land ownership ever addressed, nor was significant legislation passed that would roll back repressive laws that blighted the lives of all, in particular women. Her second term was tainted by allegations – still unproven in a Pakistani court of law – of corruption, particularly on the part of her husband Asif Ali Zardari. Zardari achieved notoriety as ‘Mr. 10%’ for his alleged propensity to rake off ten percent from any deal he might have had a finger in and siphon it into the family coffers. He denied the allegations, was imprisoned without trial for eight years and eventually rejoined the wider world to live out of the mainstream of PPP political life. Zardari, thought many, was history. How wrong they all turned out to be.
To say that the manner in which power was transferred at the top of the PPP was shameless nepotism and finagling understates the case by several orders of magnitude. The will of Benazir Bhutto - as yet not made public despite promises by Zardari to do so - apparently prescribed the succession as it currently manifests, with son Bilawal as the heir-in-waiting and his Svengali-like father as the steward of the party’s fortunes until he comes of political age in six years time.
It was Shakespeare who wrote ‘Be not afraid of greatness, some are born great, some achieve greatness and others have greatness thrust upon them.’ The Bard of Avon never spoke a truer word, and both Ms. Bhutto and young Bilawal fall into the latter category. The matriarch will no longer rule, and her legacy is already being torn to shreds by a feuding family and some penetrating appraisals heavily laden with the wisdom of hindsight.
In real terms Ms. Bhutto was far from great and her achievements in government mediocre at best; and we need to understand that there is a world of difference between popularity – and it is undeniable that she commanded considerable popularity – and greatness, a quality founded on enduring achievements that transcend the muck of mere politics; which in her case are notable by their absence. Her father probably was ‘great’ in a narrow interpretation of the word and her son is a completely unknown quality – apart from an entirely normal tendency among the rich and newly-famous to be photographed staggering out of the doors of nightclubs with a girl on each arm.
The party she led lives on, and remains a force to be reckoned with. The Chicago Tribune in late January said that the ‘…PPP’s future will determine that of Pakistan.’ It goes on to cite the growing and increasingly vocal discontent with President Musharraf and the possibility of a substantial sympathy vote going in the PPP direction on the back of Ms. Bhutto’s death. It may be that the Presidents party is about to suffer grievous blows at the hands of the electorate and defections to other parties from PML (Q) gather pace as the election draws nigh. The President has said that he will work with whatever party wins the election, and it is to be hoped that he remains true to his word, but as these words are written rumours abound that there are plans to arrest leading members of opposition groups prior to polling day, presumably in the hope of influencing the outcome. Hardly a situation to inspire confidence and it is to be hoped that rumour does not become reality.
As yet, no light is shed on who may be the PPP candidate for Prime Minister if they do win an overall majority, and we should not draw any comfort from Zardari’s assertion that party members, including the rank and file would decide about how – and who – would work with the President post-election. We draw no comfort because this would imply some form of open and transparent consultative process within the PPP, a party that has its roots in the concrete foundations of feudalism. The feudal mindset will seek to preserve the status-quo under a thin veneer of openness, but at the end of what will doubtless be long and hypocrisy-ridden days it will be that feudalism that wins out.
Whilst Ms. Bhutto may have been wilful and reckless she was not without courage and vision, and it was her courage that gave voice to the fears that she had about the future of Pakistan. She challenged both the terrorism and the authoritarian culture that nurtured it, and it is going to be up to her successors – all her successors in all the political parties – to persuade the military to loosen its grip on power and negotiate with politicians – again of all parties – who have popular support.
Leaving the rhetoric aside, and looking at the realities, it is unlikely that either of the two main opposition parties are going to get the two-thirds majority they need for an outright win – unless they agree to pool their resources and fight shoulder to shoulder, which given the history of animosity between the two, seems unlikely. Political coalitions with the exception of the MMA tend to have short unhappy lives in Pakistan, and never survive the transition to power because their own venal interests come quickly into play and erode whatever ‘partnership’ had been cobbled together.
Assuming that they did come together, and win, it is also unlikely that Pakistan would enter a period of democracy if for no other reason that it has never had true democracy – ever. Even with a civilian dispensation the military are controlling the levers behind the scenes, and the nation remains unexercised in true democratic process and governance. Indeed, Pakistan’s political immaturity in democratic terms compares unfavourably with that bogey-man of the West, Iran. Iran has a population that go to the polls regularly and with minimal bloodshed, voter turnout is good, incumbents are replaced and transitions occur and elected institutions get to serve out their time. Notably, no single democratically elected Prime Minister of Pakistan has ever served a full term.
We should not either be seduced by the idea that even if there is a fair free and peaceful election in Pakistan on the 18th February, that it will bring democracy with it. A poll by Global Integrity taken over the last six months of 2007 in 55 countries clearly indicates that the promotion of democratic elections at the expense of neglecting to reform inept or corrupt areas of governance do not, in the end, promote the cause of democracy. Even countries found to be ‘election strong’ were just as likely to be facing serious problems of transparency and accountability as those countries judged to be ‘election poor.’
Will the dynastic politics of the PPP endure? Probably, and probably because the feudal system itself is not going to be challenged in the foreseeable future. Zardari may yet be challenged, ousted even in the regular internal bloodlettings, but Bilawal? The newly-famous son of a famous mother and a famous grandfather has a lifetime of potential power and privilege ahead of him. Let us hope that he both survives and survives long enough to see Pakistan emerge from the crepuscular gloom currently enveloping it.
Chris Cork is a British social worker settled in Pakistan. He writes extensively on Pakistan’s domestic politics and society.
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