An Uphill Road

In the last 63 years of Pakistan's history, the most important missing link has been stability. Like many post-colonial states, a major predicament faced by Pakistan is the lack of political and economic stability resulting into the fragmentation of its state and societal structures. Presently, a lot of discussion is going on in Pakistan about the impending political and economic disaster because of the enormous destruction caused by the recent floods. Serious questions are being raised from different circles about the future of Pakistan as a state and its capability to cope with massive crises in the days to come.

To what extent the notion about the failed nature of Pakistani state is true and how the outside world perceives internal chaos and instability? Why Pakistan has still not settled down as a nation state and how it can overcome unresolved issued which deepen polarization in its society? Is Pakistan fast becoming a failed state or it is just propaganda and an attempt to malign the country by the vested interest groups? These are the questions which are raised from time to time and require an analytical response.

The notion of a failed state is not new. In fact, since long, there has been a trend in many third world countries, particularly in the sub-Saharan region of Africa to describe a failed state and the threats which it poses to its neighborhood. Afghanistan is another example to examine the nature of a failed state as the country is quite vulnerable to domestic chaos and violence. A failed state can be described as an entity where the writ of the state exists no more and the country is ruled by various armed groups. It is a state which exists only on paper but not only lacks basic governance but is socially and economically very fragile - where people are either internally displaced or face anarchy-like situation and where the state fails to provide basic necessities of life.

There cannot be an ideal type of a state which is hundred per cent prosperous, stable and secure. But, the line which is drawn between a failed and a successful state is clear. When a state is able to provide good governance, rule of law, basic necessities of life to its people like education, health, good transport, clean and safe drinking water then it is perceived as a successful state. Whereas, a state which is corrupt, inefficient, stagnant and follows a policy of patronization, the outcome is the failure of that state to exist as a respectable entity on the world map.

A lot of research is being done by various national and international organizations on discussing and examining states which are becoming a failed state or which have reached that stage. For instance, Transparency International (TI) and the International Crisis Group (ICG) frequently publish reports which depict the nature of crises faced by various states and provide early warning about the possible fragmentation of state and societal structures. If those who are at the helm of affairs seriously take such warnings, the possibility to prevent a man-made catastrophe exists; otherwise, history proves that the process of state collapse is inevitable and irreversible.

If the ground realities are objectively analyzed, the situation in Pakistan looks quite dangerous. There are five important issues which if not resolved soon can not only destabilize the state and societal structure of Pakistan but can also question its survival as a sovereign entity.

First, economic breakdown which is now imminent because of enormous damage done as a result of recent floods and the huge imbalance between income and expenditure. With combined foreign and domestic debt of more than U.S. $ 100 billion and more than 10 billion dollars of trade gap, the economic managers of Pakistan are left with very few options. Furthermore, 15 billion dollars of damages caused in view of 2010 floods and the increasing pressure from the IMF to enhance the prices of utilities, particularly electricity, seem to have exposed Pakistan's economy to a certain collapse. The sharp increase in the prices of essential commodities and meager hope for recovering from the prevailing economic predicament can only augment the process of not only unrest and chaos in the country but also the flight of whatever capital is available.

Second, the deepening of political schisms in the country following the failure of the government to deliver. The level of pessimism and gloom has permeated across the board in Pakistan to the extent that one fails to see any light at the end of tunnel. But, is the situation so gloomy that even optimists have lost hope? Almost all the opinion polls on Pakistan depict a dismal scenario as there is a serious leadership vacuum. The absence of a dynamic, charismatic, courageous, honest and principled leadership means that the country is in deep trouble.

Third, the role of military, particularly army is an important issue in Pakistan's political landscape. Presently, despite the appeal made by the MQM leader Altaf Hussain to ‘patriotic army generals' to step in and support ‘people's revolution' the composition of military's top brass is such that there is no scope on their part to intervene for a cause which doesn't match with their interests. In a recent piece published by Michael Krepon, co-founder of Stimson Center, Washington DC and a renowned expert on South Asia, as days are passing, it is increasingly becoming difficult for the army to control the situation.

The collateral institutional failure is another major issue in Pakistan. No public sector organization, whether it be Railways, PIA, WAPDA, Steel Mills, etc. is being run properly and is a cause of severe economic losses. The bureaucratic set up is reeling under inefficiency and corruption and so is the lower and middle-level judiciary. Consequently, the institutional crisis is so deep rooted and entrenched that it would require a major shake-up at all the levels to clean such places not only from corrupt and inefficient people but also enforcing a professional code of conduct.

Fourth, the collapse of the educational system, particularly those run by the state is another evidence of impending disaster faced by the country. Full of contradictions and a symbol of class and social stratification, the educational institutions in this country have failed to produce good quality students. Only eight per cent school going children study in reasonably better schools and only two per cent have access to elite type schools where they pay heavy fees and after completing their high school either proceed abroad for further education or join expensive private universities.

Higher education in Pakistan is starved of funds as the government has refused to provide resources even to pay enhanced salaries and developmental programs including meeting expenditures for 4,000 students studying under the Higher Education Commission (HEC) scholarships.

Fifth, ethnic, sectarian and resource based conflicts are critical as far the challenge of stability of Pakistan is concerned. Unless, conflicts which deepen insecurity, instability and chaos in society are peacefully resolved, there is no way this country can have a smooth transition from political, economic and social fragmentation to a stable situation. Increasing intolerance, anger and aggression tends to worsen the atmosphere of the country thus causing social disorder.

The road to stability and order in Pakistan cannot be smooth unless the mindset of those who are at the helm of affairs is people instead of individual centric. Without a leadership which is selfless, bold, honest and courageous, Pakistan would remain under serious threat of instability.   

The writer is Professor at the Department of, International Relations, University of Karachi and Director, Program on Peace Studies and Conflict Resolution.

Moonis Ahmar is a Visiting DAAD Fellow at the Willy Brandt School of Public Policy, University of Erfurt, Germany. He is also Professor of International Relations at the University of Karachi and Director, Program on Peace Studies and Conflict Resolution.

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