The Second Coming


Written by S.G. Jilanee • Cover Stories • July 2010

1-1 How it will ultimately end is too soon to predict but the vibes indicate that Pervez Musharraf is far from being a spent force.

The Germans have a word for it: "Aufgeschoben ist nicht aufgehoben." Freely translated it means being down is not being out. The expression applies perfectly to the ex-General and ex-President Pervez Musharraf.

Remember August 2008? His popularity rating then was almost zero. Asif Ali Zardari whom he brought out of the shadows, through the NRO, had ganged up with Nawaz Sharif to threaten him with impeachment, and even his erstwhile supporters in the PML (Q) distanced themselves from him. Frustrated, he resigned and left the country.

Down he was, but by no means out. He has since bounced back. Upbeat, he launched his own political party - the All Pakistan Muslim League this June and addressed the youth in Lahore over telephone. And, in a talk with CNN in Washington, he reiterated his resolve to return to Pakistan in due course and play his role in politics, even offering his services as president, should the people so wish.

People in America and Britain like to hear him. He earns a speaking fee of between $1, 50,000 - 2, 00,000 for a day plus travel and other VIP arrangements on the ground. He earns more than he did as president of Pakistan and enjoys international limelight free of worry.

Colorful, controversial, dynamic, Musharraf contrasts sharply with his predecessors, both civil and military. None of them drew spontaneous tribute from the media such as this excerpt from an Arab News editorial after his resignation: "Nonetheless, despite his mistakes, he has been that rare phenomenon in Pakistani politics - an honest man with good intentions who tried to serve his country to the best of his abilities. In a country that has suffered so much over the years from corrupt and self-serving politicians, there have been too few figures like him."

Pervez Musharaf shot to power by Nawaz Sharif's hubris and Dame Luck. Before the fateful evening of October 12, 1999 he had exhibited no inclination towards political office. So, when people watched him over the television as he described how Sharif had tried to prevent him from landing in his own country, it was greeted with a surge of sympathy.

He also tread warily. There was none of the usual sound of the boots, martial law or public lashing of newspaper reporters that people had seen three times before. Instead he allowed a surprising amount of freedom to the media and mushrooming of private TV channels.

In another innovative move, he chose the innocuous label of "chief executive" in place of the loathed title of Chief Martial Law Administrator. And, above all, he showed due deference to the judiciary, seeking its blessings for his every major move. It all looked hunky dory. Things went well - indeed very well, for Musharraf. The U.S, "without whose aid Pakistani people would starve to death" as Abida Hussain recently declared in a TV talk show, was pleased with Musharraf's public appearance in the early days of his new office, holding a Pekingese under each arm. Here was a "moderate" with whom it could do business.

Musharraf's charm offensive towards India was particularly successful, so successful indeed that India invited him to a state visit in July 2001, forgetting the battle-scars of Kargil two years ago. And Musharraf became the first Pakistani president to receive a 21-gun salute and a warm welcome by his Indian counterpart. The Agra Summit flopped because the Indian side declined to include Kashmir as a bilateral dispute; yet, Musharraf had made his mark with the Indian media.

He maintained his style at the SAARC summit at Kathmandu in January, 2002. Barely three weeks ago there was a terrorist attack on the Indian parliament for which India pointed the finger at Pakistan. Yet, a self-assured Musharraf, ended his speech with the words "As I step down from this podium, I extend a genuine and sincere hand of friendship to Prime Minister Vajpayee. Together we must commence the journey for peace, harmony and progress in South Asia." Then he approached the Indian prime minister with his hand extended for a shake. Taken off guard, Vajpayee had to rise from his seat and clasp Musharraf's hand to a deafening applause.

And it was due to Musharraf's single-minded engagement with India that the Kashmir issue seemed closer to a peaceful solution.

It was at home, though, that Musharraf erred. When he took office he announced the following seven-point agenda:

Rebuild national confidence and morale.
Strengthen the federation, remove inter provincial disharmony and restore national cohesion.
Revive the economy and restore investor confidence.
Ensure law and order and dispense speedy justice.
Depoliticize state institutions.
Devolution of power to the grass roots level.
Ensure swift and across the board accountability.

Out of these he acquitted himself well on item three and six. The economic performance was unmatched in the history of Pakistan:

Per Capita income grew by 100% - to $ 925
Foreign Reserves grew by 500% - to $ 17 billion
Exports grew by 100% - to $ 18.5 billion
Textile exports rose by 100% - to $ 11.2 billion
Karachi Stock Exchange grew by 500% - to $ 75 billion
Foreign Direct Investment rose by 500% - to $ 8.4 billion
Annual Debt servicing decreased by 35% - to 26%
Poverty fell by 10% - to 24%
Literacy ratio grew by 10% - to 54%
Public development Funds grew by 100% - to Rs 520 billion
Pakistan's economy grew by 100% - to become $ 160 billion
Revenue rose by 100% - to become $ 11.4 billion

To devolve power to the grassroots level, Musharraf introduced the system of district government, under which, instead of bureaucrats, elected people were empowered to run the administration at the district level.

However, other items remained in doldrums. Law and order continued to pose a challenge due to confrontation with extremists. Still worse was the faceoff with Nawab Akbar Bugti in which the latter was killed.

Next was his confrontation with the judiciary. He had the best relations with the judiciary so far. The latter had anointed his actions with legitimacy. Yet, on March 9, 2007, he invited Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry to his office and tried to work on him to resign. But, to his utter chagrin Mr. Chaudhry refused to oblige. His commando dander roused, he tried other ham-handed gimmicks to oust the Chief Justice. But it only galvanized support for Mr. Chaudhry among the lawyers and sparked a countrywide agitation.

Actually 9/11 was the beginning of Musharraf's end. He clinched it by supplicating to Colin Powell's threats directly. He often boasted about democracy in the country. But he did not obtain parliament's approval for Pakistan joining the U.S. war on terror.

That was the first fatal blunder. In fact it overshadowed the showdown with the Chief Justice, which was only its offshoot. Blindly submitting to America he turned against the Taliban government without declaring war. Their diplomats were arrested and handed over to the U.S. in blatant disregard of international law. In consequence, Pakistani supporters of Afghan Taliban turned against Pakistan government, a process that is still going on.

Catching and handing over America's quarries in return for money invited the derogatory cartoon in the Washington Times, depicting Pakistan as Rottweiler.

When resentment to Musharraf's pro-American policy grew, people began to disappear. When the Chief Justice took notice of the public hue and cry and started a probe against the intelligence agencies, it led to the epic showdown between Musharraf and the CJ.

But now he seems to be back in public demand. People recall the Musharraf years with nostalgia. However, it is too early to predict how things would shape up.