Next Vietnam?


Written by S.G. Jilanee • Cover Stories • May 2010

Some of it has to do with Obama's charm, his oratory and his dexterity in adjusting to situations. There was almost a cacophony claiming that Afghanistan would be America's next Vietnam and a graveyard of choice for the occupation troops, until the POTUS (President of the United States) convincingly claimed that " Afghanistan is NOT Vietnam."

And, by the holy cockroach (or is it catfish?), he was right! In fact one can rattle away more differences between the two than there are similarities. Let's take them one by one - the differences first.

Afghanistan has high, almost impassable mountains, deserts and extreme climate. It grows poppy which is a source of millions of precious dollars in foreign exchange. Its people are dirt poor and mostly illiterate. Its women generally encase themselves in a fabric "shuttlecock" when they go out. The people are also Muslims. Though the Americans have visited many barbaric atrocities on innocent civilians, they have not committed any Mai Lai scale massacre, yet. And finally, the U.S. has lost only 1,036 troops to date, since 2001. Even the combined tally with its accomplices works up to a total of 1,713.

The addition of 30,000 troops under the surge in the coming months will boost the number of U.S. troops. Even with this addition, the total including the number of troops from its allies would be less than 200,000.

By contrast, Vietnam was a tropical country full of lush foliage, rivers and streams, and a warm climate. The people were mostly communists. American fatalities were 58,000. And the number of purely U.S. troops was 500,000 at the height of the war. They used Agent Orange to defoliate large swathes of vegetation. In Afghanistan there is no scope for any such barbarity. But that is because there is no dense foliage here to hide the Taliban.

The Vietcong received support from the USSR and China, while the Taliban are fighting alone. And, finally, in the Vietnam War there was draft. In Afghanistan, there is no draft. It is all voluntary army. In Vietnam there was no sprawling Bagram-like detention centre where locals were tortured and sometimes put to death.

And, whereas in Vietnam, America was complicit in the assassination of its puppet, President Ngo Dinh Diem, when he went out of control and indulged in corruption and nepotism, here, in spite of Hamid Karzai's open defiance, there seem to be no plans at least yet for his assassination on the Oval Office table.

But, portents point to the parting of ways. Most recently, Karzai has lashed out openly at "foreign" interference in his country's internal affairs and is taking direct jabs at the United States that White House spokesman Gibbs described as "troubling."
When his invitation to the White House was first postponed, Karzai invited the Iranian President to Kabul in an act of defiance. This was something America would least countenance from its ally. When Obama paid a surprise visit he was in "most condescending, holier-than-thou professorial mode - an attitude that would irritate a saint." He "lectured Karzai on the need to entrench good governance, extirpate corruption, eliminate the Narco-barons, and hold free, fair parliamentary elections in September. Then, refusing a joint appearance, he left," according to newspaper reports.

Karzai reacted to the earful by openly fulminating against foreigners accusing them of interfering in his country's internal affairs. He even threatened that if pressure continued he would join the Taliban and turn the insurgency into resistance.
However, it is only a matter of time. It would not take longer than the shake of a duck's tail for the White House to send Karzai the way of Vietnam's Diem. The Obama administration has just announced the decision for the target killing of Anwar al Awlaki, a U.S. citizen, even without any charge against him in any court of law. If it can do that to its own citizen, where does Karzai stand?

The only hitch is that it is unable to find Karzai's substitute. "For this administration there are no obvious alternatives to Mr. Karzai in a country where the United States will soon have close to 100,000 troops," according to the New York Times. As a result, the White House has gone into a fence-mending mode. Hillary Clinton has spoken to Karzai to soothe his temper. And the State Department spokesman, Philip J. Crowley has been quoted as referring to Karzai as "a figure that we respect and that we are working closely with to see the emergence of an effective government at the national level." Crowley even said that the May 12 invitation, which was earlier reported to have been withdrawn, is still valid.So, Obama may say that Afghanistan is not Vietnam.

And yet there are many similarities, while more may follow as more troops arrive and the battle thickens. The actual fighting in Vietnam was started by President Lyndon Johnson, a Democrat. The war in Afghanistan has been started actively by President Barack Obama, another Democrat.

President Diem was alleged to have supported his younger brother Ngo Dinh Nhu; Karzai is accused of favoring his brother Ahmad Wali Karzai. America has mounted a relentless campaign accusing Karzai of corruption and nepotism.

Here, too, it is a guerrilla war. Afghans are being lavishly bribed to buy their loyalty like the Vietnamese. There the area of operation was extended to Laos and Cambodia; here, it has been expanded to Pakistan.

The Vietnam War lasted 14 years. The Afghanistan war is in its ninth year. Though Obama has given a drawdown from 2011, but it is tentative. The day when the last soldier of the occupation forces will leave Afghanistan remains still in the "womb of time."
More similarities would unfold when the mother of all battles begins in summer which is not far. The Battle of Kandahar is expected to start with a loud bang as an estimated 50,000 troops sweep over the city with full air support. This is billed as the final showdown for which both sides are making preparations.

And, yet, analysts assert that it would be idle to imagine that it would be a cakewalk, despite all the firepower and overwhelming force. They point to the fact that despite the fanfare with which the onslaught on Marjah was launched earlier, the Operation Mushtarak has not been an ideal success story. The New York Times reported how Marines distributing oodles of cash to locals in Marjah are frustrated because they are unable to distinguish between Taliban and non-Taliban. A Taliban when without a weapon looks like any other local and so they often inadvertently dole out dollars to their enemy. Other reports say that Taliban still wield influence among the local people.
The massive surge being infused also recalls the Vietnam parallel. In both cases the challenge to the U.S. has been to adapt its military strategy of overwhelming force to the guerrilla tactics of the enemy. But in Vietnam it failed. How it fares in Afghanistan will be seen when fireworks begin. However, U.S. military top brass realistically foresees a spike in the rate of fatalities and has accordingly asked its countrymen to prepare for more "sacrifices."

Another expected consequence of the forthcoming battle that despite Pakistan's warnings seems to be ignored by Washington is the likely influx of Afghans from the battle zone into Pakistan as happened during the Soviet occupation.

Afghans, like Vietnamese, have been historically renowned to resist invaders and hegemonic powers. In fact Afghans are fiercer in this respect for, unlike Vietnam, which was a French colony known as French Indo-China, Afghanistan has been ever known as the graveyard of invaders. And it may, yet turn out as another Vietnam for the United States. Who knows?