The Return of Pervez Musharraf


Written by S.G. Jilanee • Cover Stories • November 2009

Is it true that retired Gen. Musharraf is returning to Pakistan soon? Or is it an attempt by his supporters to test the political waters? Will the former president and army chief be brought to trial for high treason? Or, will he be called upon to remount the steed of power and start from where he left? Or, will he play some role in the country's politics? There are any number of guesses. But what is out of the question is that he will pass a retired life playing golf and entertaining friends or that he will live in self-exile like Afghanistan's ex-king Zahir Shah, in London or in the United States.

He has been out of the country for quite some months now. Before he left, he was reported to have shifted from his Army House residence to his personal manor and that he was spending his leisure playing golf, not politics. Then the news broke that he was in London. That is the first stop for Pakistan's political leaders when the political climate at home gets too hot. But Musharraf is not enjoying a retired life at his Edgware Road home.

He is active. He has friends in high places. In Britain he is given the protocol of a former head of state. His Pakistani friends hosted a reception for him to express their solidarity. Saudi King sent his plane to fetch him from London as a royal guest. He held parleys with the King and returned smiling from cheek to cheek.

Some of his detractors were roiled. Lord Nazir, for example, tried his best but failed to have the British government withdraw Musharraf's security and drive him out of Britain, while reporter Saleh Zahir of The News International in vain tried to give a bleak complexion to Musharraf's Riyadh visit as a royal guest.

But, perhaps the most powerful source of Musharraf's self-confidence is the support he derives from the Jewish lobby in the United States. For instance, in 2005, the executive director of the American Jewish Congress, Gary Ratner "sponsored a dinner" for him in New York. Besides, Musharraf has also been cozy with Israel. As president, at one time he was in favour of Pakistan recognising Israel.

Musharraf has turned a lecturer, while his mentor, George Bush, remains consigned to the garbage dump of history. He lectures in the United States to whosoever would pay and listen and is earning a lot of money. He is on demand even at the Capitol Hill. His views are sought as an expert on Af-Pak. He supports troops surge in Afghanistan. He supports the view of the warmongers that withdrawal of US forces would not only mean a return of Taliban and al Qaeda but would also de-stabilise Pakistan. These are the most mellifluous songs for their ears. No wonder he is popular with the Republicans and other hawks.

The former president seems fully in control of his wits. He even sounds upbeat. Asked about his return to Pakistan, he says he is ready to serve Pakistan if the call ever came and to face any charges against him in the court. He even expresses his wish to contest elections. However, the news about his likely return in November seems to have sent the government into a tizzy, with Interior Minister, Rahman Malik's threatening to issue a "Red Warrant" against him.

But, red warrant for what offence, Malik did not let on. So far, Musharraf has been named as an accused only in the killing of Akbar Bugti in a case before the Balochistan High Court. Yet, that Court has not issued even a white warrant for his arrest. As to the case of high treason, it still remains a pious wish of Mian Nawaz Sharif.

Malik also disclosed that Musharraf was free to come back, but he would not be allowed to take part in politics. But, he left his interlocutors guessing whether there is any secret deal to this effect; whether he was allowed immunity as a quid pro quo for the NRO, but on condition that he did not try to rock Asif Zardari's boat.

Technically, though, there is no bar on his contesting election to the National Assembly or the Senate. But, Musharraf has no constituency. The PML (Q) that had allied with is in no position to give him any meaningful support even if it wished to, while running as an independent candidate is out of the question.

Meanwhile, the fever, about making an example of him as the first dictator to be brought to justice for high treason, has also subsided, though PML (N) leader and leader of the opposition in the National Assembly, Chaudhry Nisar, still insists that his party remains committed to bringing Musharraf to trial, or, in other words, "to avenge Brothers Sharif."

However, if Musharraf is serious about entering politics, the only way he can warm his way into the legislature is to sneak unto the senate and then work his way up. But that is a tall order. He has a heavy baggage that contains many items dirtier than Kargil or the abject surrender of Pakistan's sovereignty to the US just over a telephone call from Colin Powell. One that is currently drawing the most flak is the permission to Americans to import any kind of arms and move in and out of Pakistan without any customs or immigration check.

There are many other ways in which Musharraf can serve the country, than as head of state. He may head a foreign NGO or a think-tank, for example. But, when he talks about taking up the reins of office from where he left, it raises some questions. Is his dream fed by the buzz about "Minus one formula?" Or has he been promised support from the trio of America, Britain and Saudi Arabia, as their trusted man in Islamabad?

In this context it may be worth recalling that Nawaz Sharif also visited Saudi Arabia after Musharraf's tour and also met King Abdullah. Whether the visit was at his request or at the Saudi king's behest is a moot point. But on his return it was observed that the fire in Sharif's rhetoric against Musharraf had subsided, leading to speculations that he had been advised to do so.

His withdrawal from contesting the ensuing by-election to the National Assembly also seems to have stemmed from the royal counsel, for the stipulated period for which he had guaranteed to remain out of active politics to buy his freedom from prison has still a year to go.

Musharraf has confounded his detractors who had expected him to cool his heels in the United States or the UK. That, they thought, would be the end of him as far as his connections with Pakistan were concerned. But these developments indicate that they have not yet heard the last of him.

If he bounces back relief will be felt both in the army and the crusaders, because both have been uncomfortable with the present set-up. However, he shall need to be elected. But the guardians of Pakistan's destiny, the eminence grise can take care of this hurdle so he may sneak into the Senate. How the situation unfolds remains to be seen.