Will the Eagle Land?


Written by S.G. Jilanee • Cover Stories • August 2007

President Musharraf must act with prudence and play his cards right to get out of the present log-jam, suggests S.G. Jilanee

T.S. Eliot’s poem "The Waste Land’ begins with the words, "April is the cruelest month." For Pakistan that would seem to apply to July. It was in July 1977 that Z.A. Bhutto was overthrown and a long era of darkness descended on the country. And it is again in July that military operation was launched in the heart of the capital.


Courtesy: www.commondreams.org

The poison seeds of what is being harvested today were sown during the Zia period. Had he not played into Reagan’s hands then, Gen. Musharraf would not have to sell himself to Bush, now.

Following the Lal Masjid tragedy, a slew of attacks erupted all over the country - Swat, Miranshah, Dera Ismail Khan, Peshawar, Islamabad and Hub (Balochistan). The targets were mainly security forces, resulting in a number of fatalities. Three Chinese engineers were killed in Peshawar. And more clashes between state troops and militants have been reported from North Waziristan.

Ironically, Taliban have revoked the September 2006 peace deal with the government. This should please the Americans of all hues and stripes-officials, lawmakers, thinkers, media and even George Bush, who had been ceaselessly ranting against the agreement, which they blamed for allowing respite for Al Qaeda to regroup.

Actually it is their ever unquenchable blood-lust that is behind their demand that Pakistan should wantonly kill its own people, to chase the will o’ the wisp for them. It is none of their concern if it touches off a civil war in Pakistan by pitting its civil population against the army.

President Musharraf on the other hand is trying to achieve the purpose of containing militancy without spilling more blood. Pakistan has already lost more troops in America’s crusade against ‘radical Islam,’ than even its ‘special interest’ ally, Britain. He has twice escaped attempts on his own life just by a whisker. If UK is a poodle, Pakistan has shown that it is a Rottweiler as drawn in the Washington Times cartoon. But there must be a limit to this senseless bloodletting. NWFP governor Orakzai has therefore organized a grand jirga to negotiate with the militants and save the peace deal.

Meanwhile, the latest National Intelligence Estimates aired in July once again raised the Osama bin Laden bogey. It claimed that ''Al Qaeda is better positioned to strike" at the American homeland. "It is stronger than at any time in years, and it is actively plotting new attacks." More importantly it also asserted that "Al Qaeda has reconstituted itself in the ‘wild west’ tribal areas of Pakistan (which it described as ‘safe haven’) and is determined to inflict mass casualties through new attacks on the United States."

As expected, the ploy worked. According to a New York Times/CBS poll, support for the initial invasion of Iraq has surged from 35% in May to 42 % in July. Fear has been used successfully as a tool to hoodwink the American morons, because, the very mention of ‘mass casualties’ which conjures the picture of 9/11 is enough to make them shiver in their pants.

No one therefore asked George Bush why, after all the tall claims of having routed the Al Qaeda it could still remain at pre-2001 level. Or, how the compilers of the NIE judge that Al Qaeda is "determined" to inflict casualties at any scale and was capable of launching "new attacks on the United States?"

Yet, after the report the rhetoric in the USA against Pakistan became openly strident; the barks and howls issuing from the White House and elsewhere, more ominous than ever. US homeland security adviser, Frances Fragos Townsend, said in an interview with Fox Television that the United States would consider military strikes against Qaeda hide-outs in Pakistan. "There are no tools off the table, and we use all our instruments of national power to be effective," she said.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nevada) agreed with Townsend. "I don’t think we should take anything off the table. Wherever we find these evil people we should go get them," he said. Director of US national intelligence Mike McConnell was equally upbeat. Talking to NBC television about bin Laden he said, "I believe he is in the tribal region of Pakistan."

White House Press Secretary Tony Snow, for his part called Pakistan a ‘valuable ally’ at a daily briefing. He also recalled its critical contribution in foiling terrorist attacks. Yet replying to a question about likely US response to intelligence assessment about terrorists hideouts inside Pakistan, he unequivocally declared, "We still maintain our position, we retain the option of acting on actionable intelligence," adding as afterthought to blunt the cutting edge of his remark, "but we also retain the option of working with our allies to do the same."

Predictably, Pakistan was roiled. The first reaction came from the Foreign Office, with the stern remark from Foreign Office spokeswoman Tasnim Aslam at her regular weekly news briefing. "We have stated in the clearest terms that any attack inside our territory would be unacceptable."
She further clarified Pakistan’s stand thus: (1) "For the success of our counter-terrorism endeavours, it is important to focus on effective cooperation and coordination rather than talk of actions that would further complicate our ongoing efforts to fight Al Qaeda and other terrorist elements;" (2) "Any action to be taken inside our territory is to be taken by our security forces.

That is the basis of our cooperation;" (3) "If any attack inside our borders is made, a stiff resistance will come out against it;" and (4) "We do not want our efforts to be undermined by an ill-conceived action from any quarter that is inconsistent with the principles of international law."

At the same time, appearing on CNN’s ‘Late Edition,’ Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri warned US troops against bypassing the Pakistani military in any operation. Instead he suggested, "If you have superiority in technical intelligence, please share that with us."

Apparently Pakistan’s retort had sobering influence on the other side. Thus Townsend’s tone was subdued when, responding to Mr. Kasuri, she told CNN that the US provided intelligence to Pakistan and that "We work quite closely with them." She was even generous to a point saying, "While I understand (Mr Kasuri’s) anger, we should also be clear that we believe Pakistan has been a very good ally in the war on terrorism."

Tony Snow also underwent a metamorphosis. To soothe raw nerves he said, "I think there has been this notion afoot, or at least an attempt or an inclination somehow we're going to invade Pakistan. We always maintain the option of striking actionable targets, but we also realize that Pakistan is a sovereign government and a very important player in the war on terror." He lavished praises for President Musharraf and Pakistan for the services he and his government have rendered to the American cause.

Meanwhile Daniel Benjamin and Steven Simon, two former members of the National Security Council staff have in an op-ed in the New York Times advocated "highly mobile, highly lethal counterterrorism operations," inside Pakistan to be carried out by CIA to capture or kill the Al Qaeda.

But withal, there is no room for complacency. More sweet words and reassurances are forthcoming. But they should delude none. The historical fact that Americans are utterly perfidious, without a moral compass, compunction or compassion should never be lost sight of. Islamabad should also grapple with the stark reality that its nuclear capability is of no avail, when pitted against the US colossus.

What President Musharraf is harvesting today is not the crop sown by his predecessors, but also his own. The way he abruptly succumbed to the threat from Colin Powell and Richard Armitage was hardly befitting a commando chief. It would have been more dignified as well as perfectly justified to ask for time and have the action approved by the national assembly in a democratic fashion. Washington could not have denied such proposal.

Instead he acted like a true dictator. Defying the established norms of international law, Pakistan mistreated the diplomatic and other officials of Taliban government. Even if it had declared formal war against Taliban, it should have granted safe passage to their diplomatic staff. Seldom was a volte face so sudden.

So today Pervez Musharraf finds himself between a rock and a hard place. He receives threats and insults from America and a mini-rebellion at home. Despite all the soothing words from the White House, he must take note that the Eagle is hovering menacingly and take appropriate steps before it is replaced by vultures.