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The various decisions that Sri Lanka's President Rajapakse has taken during his second term in office offer a mixture of hope and worry.With the historic victory of his ten-party United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) in the 14th parliamentary elections held in April 2010, Mahinda Rajapakse became a powerful president in Sri Lanka. According to the final official results, in a house with a strength of 225 members, UPFA has emerged as the single majority party with 144 seats - an increase of 39 seats than what it won in 2004 general elections. The main opposition party, United National Front (UNF) has got 60 seats - a loss of 22 seats than what it had in 2004. General Sarath Fonseka's Democratic National Alliance (DNA) could win only seven seats. The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) won 14 seats - mostly from the Northern and Eastern provinces.
Earlier, during the presidential election held in January 2010, President Rajapakse was re-elected for the second term with a heavy mandate - 57.88% of the total votes. His main opponent, General Fonseka then heading the alliance New Democratic Front (NDF) got 40.15% of the total votes - mainly from the Northern and Eastern provinces. The NDF was formed by United National Party (UNP) and Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) against President Rajapakse's alliance. However, General Fonseka's defeat in the presidential election, his post-election campaign against President Rajapakse and finally his arrest by Sri Lankan military in February 2010 on allegations of committing 'military offences', led to the breaking up of the opposition alliance - NDF. As a result during the parliamentary elections the opposition parties could not put up a united show. General Fonseka contested elections under detention and was able to win one seat. In the new parliament the opposition parties remain divided.
Though the Rajapakse Government has won a heavy mandate, yet the picture is not as rosy when seen in the context of voters' turnout. According to official figures, 61% of the total registered voters participated in elections, which is the lowest figure in the country's election history since its independence in 1948. Also, out of the total votes polled, UPFA received just 34% votes. The low turnout was because of people's disillusionment with the policies of President Rajapakse since the defeat of LTTE. Moreover, the voting pattern during the presidential and parliamentary elections clearly shows the sharp divide between the Tamil dominated region - Northern and Eastern provinces; and the rest of Sinhala dominated region of the country.
Nevertheless, with the major seats in the parliament, President Rajapakse's UPFA government is in a strong position to introduce legislations for national reconciliation, economic development and strengthening of democratic institutions in the country. The initial response of President Rajapakse is very encouraging. In his statement on April 10, 2010, issued after the parliamentary election President Rajapakse said, "We are humbled by the size of the repeated mandates given by the people and pledge to respond, in full measure, to the trust in us ... The assured majority in parliament given by the voters encourages the government to proceed with its policies for the strengthening of peace and reconciliation, reconstruction, greater infrastructure development, increased investment in identified areas of growth, and the overall development of the country to make it the centre of economic and social progress in South Asia."
The new parliament met for the first time on April 22, 2010. Sri Lankan analysts hope that as the major party, UPFA would work for constitutional changes related to good governance, national reconciliation, economic development, democratic institutional build up, human rights and fundamental rights. However, some Sri Lankan analysts have expressed the fear that President Rajapakse is working for constitutional change to extend the term of the Presidency to give him a third term in office as well. It is being argued that President's effort for 'extreme power' may cause discontent and politically destabilize the country. Based on some of his decisions taken recently, it is being speculated that President Rajapakse would continue to dominate the government in the second term. For example, President's decision to nominate D. M. Jayaratna as the Prime minister; while announcing the new cabinet, his decision to keep four important ministries - Defence, Finance and Planning; Ports and Aviation; and Highways; and allotting ministries to some of his close family members elected during the recent elections. This has caused subtle resentment among other members of the alliance. Coming to power with a heavy mandate for the second term, President Rajapakse and UPFA members should seriously work for national harmony, ethnic trust, economic development, and for strengthening democratic institutions of the country.
For promoting national harmony the main challenge is that of bridging ethnic and political divide between the Tamils and Sinhalese community. Though during the parliamentary election campaign President Rajapakse visited the Northern province and promised to work for the solution of the ethnic problem and for political concessions - suggested the formation of Political Councils, yet he was not able to win the support of the Tamils and their political party - Tamil National Alliance. Most of the Internally Displaced Persons, mainly Tamils and Muslims, have been settled in Northern and Eastern provinces, however, efforts for establishing political and socio-economic structures have to be expedited. After the defeat of LTTE the demand of separatism seems dormant but still it has support within the Tamil community in Sri Lanka. There is a need to bring the Tamils within the main political structure and for this the UPFA government in its second term will have to take some tough decisions, which may be regarded as concessions by the Sinhalese community. The TNA has 14 seats in the parliament and its support to UPFA can easily give the alliance a two-third majority. The Rajapakse government may not accept the Tamil demand for remerger of the Northern and Eastern provinces, however, some political concessions have to be made to establish trust with the Tamil community.
The international community and various international human rights organizations have been blaming Rajapakse's government, during its first term, of human rights abuses, war crimes and of media harassment. The Rajapakse government also opposed UN Secretary General's move of appointing a panel of experts to examine the allegations of human rights abuses. The international community is also demanding the removal of 'Emergency Regulations' and 'Prevention of terrorism Act' imposed during the civil war period. In this connection President Rajapakse during the second term has taken some encouraging decisions. Some emergency regulations in place since 2006 have been removed. President Rajapakse has announced that he would set up a special commission to examine the final phase of the war against Tamils, which ended in May 2009, and also look into the international allegations of possible war crimes.
As regards harassment of media persons, President Rajapakse has announced grant of Presidential pardon to journalist Jayaprakash Tissainayagam. Mr. Tissainayagam, a Tamil, was sentenced to 20 years imprisonment by the High Court in August 2009 on charges of getting funds from LTTE and instigating communal violence through his writings. Another journalist Ruwan Weerakoon, arrested on charges of cooperating with general Fonseka, has been released on bail. This is an encouraging beginning, however, only time will tell how sincere the Rajapakse government is in further implementing these decisions.
For President Rajapakse and the UPFA government re-election provides opportunities and challenges in the second term. Greater political wisdom and a rational approach are required for building and maintaining peace in Sri Lanka.
Fahmida Ashraf is the former Director of the South Asia Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad.
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