A Case Of Water Hegemony

In a meeting of the water commissioners of India and Pakistan in March, both countries failed to reach any understanding. New Delhi was asked to install a telemetry system on water projects built on the western rivers in the Indian held Kashmir so that the water flow to Pakistan could be measured. The Indian Indus Water Commission Chief Mr. G. Aranga Nathan said a reply to this would be given after consultation with technical experts.

The Indian side presented maps and designs of the Nimmo Bazgo and Chutuk hydel power projects. The Pakistani team objected to the construction of 45 MW Nimmo-Bazgo hydel power project on the Indus River in Leh district of the Indian held Kashmir which it termed as a violation of the Indus water treaty (IWT). The Pakistanis pointed to the excessive storage capacity, low level of spillway and construction of freeboard as their main objections. Aranga Nathan did say India was not stealing Pakistan's share of river waters and all hydropower projects being built by the country were according to the provisions of the treaty.

According to various reports from the World Bank (WB) and Asian Development Bank (ADB), Pakistan is among the most "water stressed" countries in the world; and will face a grave water crisis in the next five years.  Water supply in Pakistan has fallen from 5,000 cubic meters per capita to 1,000 cubic meters in 2010. It is estimated that by 2020, it will be 800 cubic meters per capita. There are a number of reasons for this, mainly constant increase in population, global warming and non-existent policy.

In 2009, Islamabad lost almost five billion rupees in crop production due to stoppage of water by India to fill the Baglihar dam in September 2008. There is a strong view in Pakistan that India has violated the IWT a number of times in the past as well and this incident was not the first or the last. Many Pakistanis see a clear cut planning by New Delhi to dry up Pakistan as Islamabad is perhaps the biggest hurdle in its hegemonic designs in the region. Few might disagree but the fact of the matter is that a number of Indian think tanks have done projects on this theme.

New Delhi is emerging as an economic giant at the global level and is taking all steps to make use of any resource at hand even if it is in breach of a national or an international law.  It is building a number of dams and hydel projects on almost all rivers in the Indian controlled Kashmir which according to many is a violation of the IWT. New Delhi plans to construct 62 dams/hydro-electric units on Rivers Chenab and Jhelum. If this happens, there might be no Chenab and Jhelum left by 2014.

India is constructing three hydropower projects on River Indus in the Indian held Kashmir: Chutak Dam (59-meter height), Nimoo Bazgo (57-metre height) and Dumkhar (42-meter height).  On river Jhelum, New Delhi is working on the Uri power project (240MW) and Kishan Ganga power project (330MW). A 22-kilometer long tunnel will divert Neelam-Jhelum water for Kishan Ganga power project.

These Indian projects already have an adverse effect on Pakistan which is suffering from a serious shortage of water. A number of sectors have started voicing their concern on the matter. The Pakistan Muttahida Kisan Mahaz (MKM) has criticized the government's silence over Chenab River water 'piracy'. Says the Mahaz president: "Under the Indus Water Basin Treaty, India is required to release 16,000 cusec Chenab water to Pakistan whereas water flow at Head Marala has been reduced to only 5,000 cusec as a result of construction of Baglihar Dam in Occupied Kashmir. Drastic fall in Chenab water flow had resulted in closure of Marala Ravi Link, Upper Chenab and BRB canals which met 75 percent canal water requirement of Punjab. The closure of three canals has created an acute shortage of water for rabi crop, and wheat production is likely to fall drastically in Punjab."

Arshad H. Abbasi, based at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), stated that "an exponential decline in flows had been observed at Head-Marala in Pakistan because of a reduction in monsoon rainfall in the watershed of Chenab, unauthorized direct water withdrawal by farmers in Jammu with the support of Indian authorities who had especially subsidized electricity for direct pumping in Jammu and Himachal Pradesh and diversion of Ravi-Tavi link canal. ...India used to irrigate 642,000 acres from western rivers by Ranbir and Pratap canals when the treaty became effective, but it had built five more canals over the past 10 years to increase the irrigated area. These include Kashmir canal system, high canal system in Jammu, Ravi-Tavi link irrigation system, Igo-phey canal in Leh and Kurbathang canal in Kargil." He also added that "water flows at Head-Marala had declined by almost 50 per cent in 2008-09."

In an earlier visit of the Indian Indus water commission to Pakistan to inspect four irrigation sites including Balloki, Sadhani, Sulemanki and Islam headworks, Indian Commissioner G. Aranga Nathan and his team members SK Saho and Darpan Talwar acknowledged that Pakistan is facing serious water shortage.

New Delhi, however, is of the view that the position taken by Islamabad on the matter is just anti-India propaganda. Regarding the stoppage of the flow of the Chenab in 2008, it is of the view that it was an initial one-time filling of the reservoir of the newly constructed Baglihar Project.

The Indian External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna told the Rajya Sabha in early March that New Delhi has not denied share of water to Pakistan under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). "The allegation that India has denied Pakistan the share of water it is entitled to under the IWT, signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan, is completely baseless and has been categorically rejected," adding, "The government is in full compliance with the treaty. All issues regarding the implementation of the treaty should be resolved through the existing mechanisms under the IWT." According to a news report which appeared in Pakistan Daily Times, March 10, 2010, "Senior Indian officials blamed Pakistan for making water a ‘populist issue' and expressed concerns over the issue being handed over to the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LT) for raising anti-Indian sentiments."

It is no denying the fact that whatever might be the reason, Pakistan is at the brink of a water disaster. Although what New Delhi is doing is not ignorable, recently one has come across statements by Pakistani Indus Waters commissioner, Jamaat Ali Shah, and an ex-finance minister, Dr. Mubashar Hasan, stating that the shortage of waters in our rivers is due to climatic conditions and not because of any theft by India. Therefore what is required is that Islamabad should study the subject in greater depth as this is a matter of survival for the country. Legal experts need to look at similar cases and issues related to upper/lower riparian states. Islamabad must also focus on building new dams and reservoirs. Dams should not be made political issues.

Islamabad should also try to identify whether the water shortage is due to the Indian blockade or due to rise in population and climate change. If it is water scarcity then the IWT cannot provide remedy as this issue is not discussed in the IWT. In this case an expert, transparent and neutral opinion should be sought.

Leading Pakistani International Law expert Ahmer Bilal Sufi says that determination of the real reason should be agreed to beforehand through a bilateral agreement confined to fact-finding. If the finding is that the reduced flow of water is due to obstructions, then Pakistan could take action under the provisions of the Indus Water Treaty immediately. On the other hand, if there is genuine water scarcity then the issue needs to be sorted out by both the states on a bilateral basis.

Whatever the reason for the water crisis, one cannot ignore the fact that now New Delhi is in a position to flood or starve Pakistan at will. This is exactly what happened in July 2004 when without warning, New Delhi released water into the Chenab River, flooding large portions of Pakistan.

A leading Indian Strategic thinker Bharat Karnad in Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security states: "The absolute irrelevance of nuclear weapons to deal with Pakistan, a lower riparian state, in the most extreme way is contained in the fact that its granary, the Punjab province can be turned into an arid wasteland by India's withdrawing from the 1960 Indus water Treaty, and diverting and damming the water flowing from the water heads of the Indus river on the Indian side."

Rizwan Zeb is a doctoral candidate at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Western Australia and a former Benjamin Meaker Visiting Professor of Politics, at the University of Bristol, UK. He is also a visiting scholar at the Brookings Institution and is currently working on a book on the Strategic Culture of Pakistan.

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