A Darkening Scenario |
| Written by Dr. Bishnu Pathak • Region • April 2010 |
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 Nepal may again find itself in the middle of a deep national crisis if a new Constitution is not announced by the stipulated date. The Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal is rich in terms of cultural heritage with various ethnic, tribal, and social groups. Situated in the Himalayas, Nepal adjoins the Tibet Autonomous Region of China in the north and India in the south. Nepalese are the descendants of Tibeto-Burman migrants from the north and Indo-Aryans from the south. Census 2001 listed 103 caste/ethnic groups with 92 different living languages. There are three major linguistic groups - Indo-Aryan, Tibeto-Burman and indigenous. The first meeting of the Constituent Assembly in early 2008 formally ended the world's only Hindu kingdom and it became a secular nation with a population mix of 80.6% Hindus, 11% Buddhists and 4.2% Muslims.
The first meeting of the CA was convened on May 28, 2008 and a two-year deadline was set for drafting of a new constitution. The meeting introduced the ceremonial president as the head of the state, minimizing the role of the prime minister. However, the Constitution-making process has been delayed as the major parties in the CA could not reach national consensus on security, state-restructuration and integration of the Maoist army. The UNL-led government has failed to maintain law and order and has been severely criticized from all quarters. Media entrepreneurs, including journalists and civilians, have been killed or have received death threats. Tarai-Madhes is still burning and bleeding. Abductions, killings, retaliations, extortions, torture are a part of the daily headlines. Pahade (hill and mountain dwellers) and civil servants are either being killed in Tarai-Madhes or receive death threats and there are strikes every week. The criticism of security shadows the constitution-making process. Three concepts, namely socio-cultural/regional, administrative division (north to south), and administrative autonomous states are key to the state's restructuring. The socio-cultural/regional autonomous states have been in the forefront since the start of the People's War. Nepal is a country of minorities, but has unity in diversity in all multi-caste/ethnic, multi-cultural, multi-linguistic, and multi-religion groups. The Chhetri comprises the largest group (16%), followed by the Bahun (13%), and the Dalits 13%. The Rai and Limbu who comprise 2.84% and 1.58 %, respectively, have been given the authority for a autonomous federal state in the Maoists proposal, but none for the Chhetri, Bahun and Dalits. The Rai and Limbu are themselves in minority in the proposed states. If such socio-cultural and regional autonomous states are imposed in the forthcoming constitution, civil war is evitable. To avoid such conflicts, the new constitution should give high priority to areas where a large number of people live below the poverty line and are deprived of basic civil rights such as health, education, economic prosperity, time-bound reservation, equal rights to women, etc. Whether building-constitution should come first or rehabilitation and reintegration of the Maoist army should be given priority are much heated arguments in Nepal today. The government prioritizes reintegration. The Maoists want to go both for constitution building and army reintegration simultaneously. To pressurize the Maoists, the government has asked UNMIN to furnish detailed information about the Maoist army. The government wants the army to be downsized by 40%. UNMIN has declined to provide such information. Against the government's allegations of non-cooperation and bias, UN Under Secretary General B. Lynn Pasco in his recent visit said the government's criticism is based on unfair, absurd and boring arguments. The differences between the two intensified as the Government asked Pasco to speak within diplomatic norms and limitations. Besides, Nepal's Army Chief rejected the bulk integration of the Maoist army. He said that such individual combatants could be reintegrated into the army who meet established standards. In fact, the government wants UNMIN to leave whereas UNMIN asks for either a broader mandate in the peace process or an exit strategy. In any event, UNMIN's tenure expires on May 15. Its departure would require a greater role of neighbors in army reintegration and the constitution building process. The Maoist party wants UNMIN to remain in Nepal till the time the integration process is completed. The non-extension of UNMIN's tenure has created a serious confrontation between the Maoists (closer to China) and the ruling parties (closer to India). None of the major parties desire to have a new constitution due to their vested political interest. The delay in the launching of a new constitution means disrespect for people's vote and this would fuel more violence. There is no democratic legitimacy of the Madhav Nepal-led government as he was defeated in two constituencies. The Prachanda-led government nominated him as a member of the CA on the principle of communists being brothers. Nepal became prime minister on the blessings of a powerful neighbor. The neighbor believes in the strategy: ‘diamond cuts diamond' (Maoists vs. UML) theory, keeping NC as the alternative force against the Maoists. The government wants only 3,000 to 4,000 Maoists to be integrated into the Nepal Army while the Maoists want 15,000; 5000 each in the Army, Police and Armed Police. The lesser number of personnel of the Maoist army being included in the security forces could have both opportunities and risks. Most of the Maoists are young (18-30). The opportunity is that they will ignore violence and join the mainstream. In terms of risks, the Maoists leaders may face life-threats from their own Maoist army joining hands with cultural and regional (secessionist) forces or criminal groups or anti-Maoist forces. The Maoists propose to resolve the differences related to statute through voting, but ruling parties have denied this. The Interim Constitution directs the CA to endorse each and every clause through a two-thirds majority. Owing to difference on the issues of security, army integration and state restructuring, the CA, the State Restructuring Committee and the Constitutional Committee (CC), have been without business for long. Nine thematic committees of the CA have not submitted their papers to the CC. Due to the government's serious deferral of members of the Maoist Army in the cantonments, the Maoists are also preparing for a non-confidence motion against the government through a special session of the CA on the charge of a deepening culture of impunity, corruption, killings and terrorism. This will further delay the constitution-making process and more uncertainty. If the new constitution is not promulgated on the stipulated date of May 28, 2010, Nepal could fall into another legitimacy crisis. This would either lead the country to another authoritarian regime, chaos and bloodshed or a monarch may reappear and activate the 1990 Constitution. The crisis is deepening though the country's legislators understand the price of the Constituent Assembly but not its value. u  Bishnu Pathak is the author of Politics of People’s War and Human Rights in Nepal. He is a leading expert on human rights, security, and federalism in Nepal. Comments (0)
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