Another Meaningless Exercise

Cynics, however, are of the view that this ‘irreversible' peace process has its basis in the Indian belief that in the post-9/11 world, Pakistan is under tremendous pressure internally and externally and that it is perhaps the best time for a final settlement of the Kashmir issue on India's terms as the power configuration at the national, regional and international levels favors India.

The biggest hurdle for any possible success of the peace process from the beginning is the trust deficit between the two. Nothing illustrates this point better than the Mumbai terrorist attacks. Within hours of the tragic events New Delhi and the Indian media started accusing Islamabad.

The biggest problem and a spoiling factor for the peace process from the very beginning is the trust deficit between India and Pakistan. It is evident from the very beginning that both sides don't trust each other. What else can explain the reason for Pranab Mukherjee saying "What if we withdraw from Siachen and they (Pakistani forces) occupy it?" However, nothing illustrates this point more than the Mumbai terrorist attacks.

It will not take a rocket scientist to conclude that the terrorists aimed at derailing the already faltering peace process. This could be termed their basic objective. They also wanted the situation to deteriorate to a level that both sides go to war or at least mobilize, as a result of which Islamabad will be compelled to concentrate on its eastern border. While the terrorists successfully achieved their basic aim, both India and Pakistan abstained from taking extreme measures. Cynics would consider this as an outcome of the back-channel American diplomacy.

Immediately after the Mumbai attack, New Delhi suspended the peace process and cancelled all consultations between India and Pakistan. At the same time, it demanded that Islamabad dismantle the terror infrastructure for the peace process to resume. Islamabad asserted that terrorism was a common enemy and the peace process should not be made hostage to this issue as this is exactly what the terrorists wanted.

New Delhi's reversal undermined the progress made between the two countries till that time on Siachen and Sir Creek. If one is to believe the former foreign minister of Pakistan, through back channel diplomacy, Islamabad and New Delhi were also able to make some headway on Kashmir. Soon after Mumbai, New Delhi launched a diplomatic onslaught against Islamabad but the ploy failed. A strong lobby in India wants to come down hard on Pakistan yet, New Delhi has realized that this policy of non-engagement has failed and Islamabad cannot be unnecessarily pressurized either through aggressive diplomacy or through cold start. It was this frustration coupled with immense American pressure that New Delhi invited Islamabad for a secretary level meeting although there are many who are still sceptical about engaging Pakistan in a dialogue. This view was recently expressed in a commentary which said: "Given the large inventory of negatives surrounding the dialogue, what on earth is aimed to be achieved by the exercise of talking? All the conventional reasoning has been exhausted. It is no secret that the Indian initiative described as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's vision to strengthen the civilian government in Pakistan has come about with U.S. prodding despite reservations among Dr. Singh's Cabinet members. His detractors have not forgotten the delinking of terror from the dialogue at Sharm-el-Sheikh and the mention of Balochistan in the text of the joint statement. This time around Delhi has nuanced the nature of talks, saying it is not a resumption of the composite dialogue (which is contingent upon the conviction of the Mumbai attackers) but a dialogue over terrorism-related issues. ... this is an opportunity to tell Pakistan clearly that our response to another Mumbai will be, in the words of Home Minister P. Chidambaram, "swift and decisive", whatever that means."

The Americans played a very important role in bringing the two sides of the table. Robert Blake, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs stated that "This is a very valuable opportunity for both of these countries to explore the important issues on their agenda."

The two foreign secretaries, Pakistan's Salman Bashir and India's Nirupama Rao met in New Delhi on Feb 25. In this meeting both sides stick to their official positions. Pakistan foreign secretary talking to the press stated that, "There were two objectives of our meetings with Indian officials. One, we wanted to determine if there is any significant change in the Indian attitude and position or not. Two, we wanted to determine how can the two countries move forward and improve bilateral relations." At the same time he added that, "But unstructured talks for the sake of talks, though important, will not produce any long-term results. It is crucial that India agrees to restore Composite Dialogue to move forward." It is reported that Islamabad during the meeting asked for the inclusion of the Kashmiri leadership into the dialogue and also asked for information about glaciers, water bodies and related data from the Indian administrated Kashmir. It also handed over a document to India on the water problem.

The Indian camp raised the issue of terrorism, 26/11 probe, roles of Hafiz Saeed and Illyas Kashmiri and the recent Pune blasts. It is also reported that it has handed over two more dossiers to Pakistan.

Indian Foreign Secretary Rao in his interaction with the press called this meeting a "first step" towards rebuilding trust between the two neighbors. "We had set out to take a first step towards rebuilding trust and I believe my meeting with the Pakistan foreign secretary constituted that first step," adding, "We have agreed to remain in touch," she said, while adding that the time was "not right as yet" to resume a full-fledged peace dialogue as requested by Pakistan.

Peace process requires patience from all parties involved. It has been pointed out that a peace process is a time-consuming exercise based on a mutual desire of finding a peaceful solution to the conflict. Hence, any peace process depends on a number of factors; most important of them is patience.

The most important outcome of this meeting is that a new phase of the peace process has begun. The Indian foreign secretary will visit Islamabad. After that there will be talks between interior ministers of both countries. One is also informed that the prime ministers of India and Pakistan will meet in Bhutan during the SARRC summit. Therefore, although this meeting might seem to be meaningless, the point is that it has opened the process of talking.

At times, in a peace process, a party, normally the stronger one, starts thinking that it can bargain from a position of strength and yet it can achieve its desired results. Spoilers are a twin of a peace process. Every peace process has the spoiler problem. For a peace process to succeed it is essential that the parties in a peace process should be able to identify the spoilers and then address the issue collectively. The terrorists in India-Pakistan case are a spoiler. Both India and Pakistan need to address this problem jointly if they are serious in establishing peace in South Asia. New Delhi also needs to understand that with every indication of improvement of relations between the two countries, the terrorists will try to derail the peace process. The solution to this problem is patience, trust and not repeating the mistake of suspending the peace process.

Rizwan Zeb is a doctoral candidate at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Western Australia and a former Benjamin Meaker Visiting Professor of Politics, at the University of Bristol, UK. He is also a visiting scholar at the Brookings Institution and is currently working on a book on the Strategic Culture of Pakistan.

Facebook | Twitter | Email

Comments (0)

Show/hide comments

Show/hide comment form