South Asia's Sole Superpower?

With India celebrating its 61st Republic Day on January 26, one needs to analyze why New Delhi tends to project its power ambitions in such a manner that it creates insecurity, paranoia and mistrust among its neighbors and how India can cope with its ‘image problem' which it possesses in South Asia about its drive for supremacy in the region?
One cannot deny the growing power of India in terms of its economy and its military and technological-industrial base. India, in view of its established political order since its inception as a new state on August 15, 1947 till today, certainly qualifies to be a major power of Asia. Its rapid economic growth rate, burgeoning middle class, democratic and political pluralism, cultural and religious diversity and a leadership possessing vision about transforming India as a developed, stable and prosperous country in the 21st century, cannot be questioned. But, what is a matter of serious concern among its neighbors and outside the region is its other face, which is expansionist, aggressive, arrogant and dominating.

The conception that India is the sole power in the region is misleading because of two main reasons. First, India may have an edge vis-à-vis its neighbors in terms of population, resources and other instruments of power, but certainly it cannot be called as the only power in the region. For a long time, Pakistan used to strive for parity with India, particularly in the military field and its economy was also better as compared to its eastern neighbors till the time Islamabad faced the traumatic events of 1971 and the country was truncated. Even after suffering a humiliating defeat by India as a result of the 1971 Indo-Pakistan war, Islamabad continued its drive for power equilibrium with India but failed because of the shrinking of its size as a result of the post-December 1971 events and its internal mess on account of political disorder. Economically too, Pakistan failed to do well since the 1990s to the extent that its currency, which was better than India's, faced a sharp decline and its per capita income, which was higher than India's, also declined.

Even then, Pakistan has the capability to challenge India, particularly in the military field, both conventional and nuclear, and has not accepted India as the sole power in South Asia. For India, Pakistan is the only stumbling block in the region in the way of its power ambitions. Second, China has borders with five South Asian countries and is a major actor in the region. In the presence of China and its proactive role in South Asia, India cannot get a free hand to manipulate things and impose its hegemony. Sino-Indo relations may have improved in the recent past albeit their unresolved conflicts, yet, deep down, the two neighbors are still at odds on various issues.

India's ambitions to emerge not only as a South Asian but also as an Asian and a global power can, however, not be underestimated. With a population of one billion plus, an economic growth rate of 8% and foreign exchange reserves of around $300 billion, India is certainly a major power in the making. The source of Indian arrogance and pride is not difficult to gauge: a country which was highly backward and under-developed until the 1980s, is now a major market for global economic powers and trading groups be it the United States, China, Japan or the European Union. Its drive for poverty alleviation, developing a modern infrastructure and offering an investment-friendly environment, caused a ‘great leap forward' for India.

In 1991, when India embarked on the policy of market economy under the leadership of the then Finance Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh, its foreign exchange reserves were hardly two billion dollars and the size of its middle class was half as compared to 400 million today. But, one thing which needs to be understood while examining the dynamics of Indian power is since independence it pursued a policy of self-reliance and focused on establishing a modern industrial and agricultural base. Its economy was not donor driven and it gave priority to produce indigenous technology so as to modernize its infrastructure. The simple life style of its leaders was and is a role model for those countries who do not go with a begging bowl all over the world and end up in a humiliating situation. Pride, prestige and power became the three important pillars of Indian policy which resulted in its transformation as a major power in making.

Four fault lines however put a question mark on the possibility of India emerging as a great power in the region and the world. First, India's unresolved conflicts with its neighbors, particularly with Pakistan are a major impediment as far as its drive to seek colossal power is concerned. Unless, New Delhi establishes normal relations with its western neighbor by settling issues which are contentious in nature, there cannot be peace in South Asia. Whether it is the Kashmir dispute, Siachen, Sir Creek or conflict over water resources, without their peaceful resolution, India cannot expect to proceed in the direction of becoming a major power like the People's Republic of China. Second, India's internal contradictions also impede the accomplishment of its power ambitions. India has still not been able to get over its baggage of caste and communal cleavages and even after 63 years of independence, there are reports about religious and communal violence in India. Unless, India gets over its social backwardness and takes firm action against hate groups, it cannot even take the first step towards seeking pre-eminence in regional or global affairs.

Third, unlike China which is the world's most populous country but not poverty ridden, India has the world's largest poor population. Even now, at least one third of Indians live below the poverty line which is no doubt a major cause of social and economic backwardness. Finally, it is strange that despite being home to one-third of the world's poor and illiterate, India spends more than 25 billion dollars on military buildup and has the world's fourth largest military. It is India's focus on gaining military supremacy in the region at the expense of human development that is a major stumbling block in its emergence as a developed and prosperous state.

If India wants to be a role model, then it must rethink its approach and policy vis-à-vis its neighbors and refrain from manipulating issues that are domestic in nature but that New Delhi tries to exploit for its own interests. Whether it is Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan or Sri Lanka, all these neighbors criticize New Delhi for imposing its hegemony in the region and pressurizing them to toe the Indian line.

India should have a humble, prudent and pragmatic approach towards its neighbors so that South Asia can emancipate itself from the clutches of poverty, under-development and stagnation. Unless India behaves in a responsible and wise manner in order to sort out its critical issues and in dealing with neighbors, there is no way it can hope to emerge as a successful state in all respects.

Moonis Ahmar is a Visiting DAAD Fellow at the Willy Brandt School of Public Policy, University of Erfurt, Germany. He is also Professor of International Relations at the University of Karachi and Director, Program on Peace Studies and Conflict Resolution.

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