 Ajay Chhibber, Director of UNDP’s Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific, in an exclusive interview to SouthAsia discussed the potential of South Asian development and the role of UNDP.
South Asia is an important region but has been in turmoil and subject to social, political and economic crises. How do you see development coming in the region?
Given the challenges you have rightly cited and considering where South Asia stands today as a region compared to where it stood as recently as 20 years ago, I am quite optimistic about the region’s development. Until the onset of the global financial crisis, a number of countries in South Asia witnessed unprecedented growth and large swaths of people were pulled out of poverty. India for example, the most populous country in the sub region, registered growth rates of as high as 6-8%. Despite frequent natural disasters and political uncertainty, Bangladesh has average six percent GDP in the last six years and is on track with respect to most Millenium Development Goals indicators. There have been some setbacks, yes, but certainly there has been resilience and a high degree of innovation. There has also been remarkable political will to end decades of conflict as is the case in Nepal which continues to struggle with a fragile peace and in Bhutan and Maldives which made successful democratic transitions through their historic elections in 2008. In the same year, we also witnessed highly credible elections in Bangladesh, resulting in elected governments for the first time in all of South Asia. These are important milestones that signal positive changes on the social, political and economic fronts.
What are the areas that require immediate attention and how has UNDP set about to address them?
Despite the recent trends of positive growth, two areas where South Asia needs to focus on are the growing inequality and gender disparities, which in some cases have even been further fuelled by the growth. There is also a need for South Asia to develop and nurture robust, transparent and accountable public sectors and to build institutions and strong public- private partnerships. UNDP is about human development and enlarging people’s choices and we promote equity and social justice and see the Millennium Development Goals as the fulcrum of all our efforts. UNDP is working with governments and national and international development partners in the region to promote attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and ensure that countries of the region attain these by 2015.
What has been the progress in this regard?
A number of countries are well on track to achieve these and some have set very ambitious targets that go beyond the MDGs. For example, in Bhutan while gender disparity in tertiary education and the growing youth unemployment pose challenges, the country is well on track to achieve most of its MDG targets. India is on track, for MDG 1, but it is not on track when it comes to most of the MDGs and is especially not likely to achieve targets related to malnutrition, infant and maternal mortality rates, education and sanitation. Pakistan lags behind on almost all of the MDGs and is unlikely to attain its targets by 2015.
How do you see the issues of poverty and hunger being addressed and resolved in different countries in South Asia?
Fighting poverty and hunger is indeed the most important MDG but attainment of this target will vary from country to country; so will the rate of decline in poverty levels across countries. Some have already achieved food security and, barring the fluctuations of trade and food prices, countries like India and Sri Lanka, have attained food self sufficiency. However, what most governments need are robust, transparent and predictable social protection systems that will cushion the poor against global recession and impact of the current financial crisis which came right on the heels of record high fuel and food prices. South Asia governments also need to work at improving access to food, because often it’s not just about the availability of food but poor or distorted markets, pricing policies and food distribution systems as well as a lack of incentives for small farmers to produce food crops.
Do you see the economy of South Asia growing?
South Asia has been affected by the economic crisis, although perhaps much less than in other parts of the world. The largest economy in the region India was affected by the crisis but with strong stimulus package is now holding up and likely to return to high growth. Bangladesh has also weathered the crisis. Pakistan’s economy was in deep trouble last year but with a large external assistance and IMF monitored programme, it is beginning to stabilize. Overall, South Asia may emerge as one of the fastest growing regions in the world.
Many speculate that India’s economy is growing fast and that its position in the region is soon going to be that of a leader in terms of economic development. How true is this economic expansion, if any?
Indeed India’s economy is growing at an impressive rate. For a country that was used to the “Hindu growth rate” it has been able to fast-track its growth in the 6-8% range for the last few years. This coupled with inability to break away from the shackles of poor infrastructure has so far prevented the ‘take-off’ of the Indian economy. Inequities within the country and the ever widening gap between the affluent and the middle class as well as the poor are both leading to a very difficult social scenario that will ultimately pose a major problem to the country as a whole.
How important is India’s regional integration in this regard?
India’s regional integration is critical but has always remained a big challenge. In its immediate South Asia neighborhood the comparatively very large size of India (in many ways) has been the major inhibiting factor. Plus SAARC has been dominated so much by the India – Pakistan bilateral issues it has never managed to address the core sub-regional issues. India is having much better success with the ASEAN region. However, with India becoming such a prominent player in global fora like the G 20, G 77, NAM, Commonwealth its quest for a bigger role in the UN have kept an active regional integration agenda on its plate but South Asia seems to have slipped from the radar.
How does UNDP ensure that the people of South Asia are provided a chance to live, prosper and develop as strong nations?
UNDP’s approach is to work with governments to build durable systems and institutions and the capacity of governments to provide services to its citizen. In the aftermath of war, we focus on strengthening the nascent culture of democracy that the post conflict elections bring and work on transitional justice, human rights peace building and early recovery programmes that help to strengthening the road to stability and sustainable peace. We are presently engaged in such programmes in Nepal, Sri Lanka Bangladesh and Afghanistan and hope that our contributions can build strong foundations for prosperous and strong societies. In Afghanistan UNDP’s emphasis is on capacity building of national institutions. UNDP is also working with countries of the region that are most vulnerable to natural disasters and climate change such as Bangladesh and Maldives. Since the new government took over in Maldives, the emphasis has been on placing climate change at the centre of the country’s development strategy, as well as in Bangladesh. UNDP is supporting both governments to tackle the climate change challenge and we hope that at the upcoming Climate Change conference in Copenhagen, concrete agreements will be reached to significantly boost the efforts of such vulnerable countries.
Talking about the economic development in the region, what areas do you think need immediate attention?
Inter and an intra-country inequality is the single biggest development challenge. Most of the internal conflicts plaguing many of the countries in the region, over and above ethnic, ideology and even religion issues, the one common thread that ties them all are the inequalities. Whether you look at Nepal, Sri Lanka and even parts of India internal struggles have always been either triggered or fuelled by extreme inequalities within regions of a country. Also, the over dependence, still, of many countries in the region on primary production for their economic growth is a major challenge given the ever sliding commodity prices. Only India has managed to break out of this at least to a limited extent by its booming service industry. So diversification of the growth base is another big challenge. Intra-regional trade and cooperation within South Asia has the potential to change the growth path and destiny of many countries in the region.
How do you see Pakistan’s growth in terms of economic growth? How can it participate in boosting the economy of the region?
Pakistan faces a double challenge of an economic crisis as well as insurgency in parts of the country leading to a humanitarian crisis with large number of internally displaced people. The IMF package of $7.6 billion bailed out the country from a balance of payments crisis last year. According to current predictions, growth rates in 2009/2010 will not exceed 2.7%. This compares unfavorably with 2008/2009 when Pakistan’s GDP reached 3.7%. The Friends of Pakistan has now reached an agreement on how to help Pakistan rebuild from its humanitarian crisis. These are all positive signs. But we have a long way to go and with good policies and strong implementation, we will get there.
How have the South Asian countries positioned themselves to meet the challenges of globalisation and what should they be doing to maximise the benefits of globalization?
South Asian countries have derived some important benefits from globalization. They have taken advantage of external export trade market opportunities, technological innovations and mobility of labor and investments to create jobs and change their position in the global economic architecture. South Asia needs to focus on making heavy investments in its crumbling infrastructure, be it in energy, communications or urban/rural transport if it is to reduce the transction costs of doing business within its borders and maximize the benefits of globalization and attract investments. Countries such as India, Pakistan or Bangladesh are good examples that need to invest heavily in modernization of their infrastructure. These countries also need to nurture and expand their domestic markets or internal demand. As a populous region, South Asia would benefit even more if it could increase domestic demand and not rely on exports to fuel the growth.
When you look at South Asia, what are your hopes and expectations?
South Asia has tremendous potential as a region and has in the last decade demonstrated very positive trends. It has the human capital, the natural resources and the geographic and population size that gives it the economies of scale. I hope that governments of South Asia will create enabling environments and the human security necessary to unleash the energy we have witnessed recently and create the stability necessary for citizens of those countries emerging out of conflict to contribute to the region’s prosperity. Today every country in South Asia has an elected government. Growth has remained resilient and we have a very strong common culture. South Asia has too long been a house divided - at war with itself. If it could come together it could challenge and shake-up the entire world. It is a vibrant, rich region with a huge under utilized potential. 
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