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India's highhandedness in distribution and storage of shared water resources could become another volatile flashpoint in its relations with Pakistan if timely corrective action is not taken on both sides.The war on terror, operations in Swat and Waziristan, high unemployment and poverty, a feeble economy, political instability - these are some of the problems that Pakistan faces in these trying and sensitive times. However, the one looming crisis that the government of Pakistan is turning a 'blind eye' and a 'deaf ear' to is the water crisis. Unarguably, fresh water is the source of life for all human beings. Additionally, in the case of Pakistan, it is also the source of life for our agrarian economy.
Water scarcity is a problem shared by South Asia as a whole. According to estimates, the Himalayan glaciers have already receded considerably in the last ten years. However, just as India and Pakistan constitute the core of South Asia, so does the water problem. Water shortages and crises have haunted Pakistan since the 1960s, in the face of possible Indian intentions and actions of cutting down - eventually, even shutting down - Pakistan's water supply. The South Asia Programme of the School of Advanced International Studies, Washington, conducted a study that predicted a 102 billion cubic metre water shortfall in Pakistan by 2025. Pakistan Indus Water Commissioner Jamaat Ali Shah made another daunting projection in November 2008 when he stated that “India would make Pakistan a barren land in the next six years by blocking its water through construction of dams in violation of the Indus Water Treaty.” Currently, India has 74 dams, with 32 more under construction and 318 dams in the planning stage. India, being solely responsible for its own depleting energy and water resources due to over-exploitation and contamination, is building these dams at the expense of its neighbouring countries. Due to the closely-knit structure of South Asian rivers, it is difficult to demarcate the rivers of the subcontinent and administer their flow. India is not new to water disputes: it has a dispute with Bangladesh over the flow of River Ganges; it has been putting pressure on Nepal for a huge share of the Mahakali River; and it has made numerous attempts at reducing the flow of the Indus and other rivers into Pakistan. The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 was signed to officially divide the tributaries of the Indus River, to resolve the deadlock between the two countries, and to establish adjudication as a method for future disputes. The Treaty simply allots three western rivers to Pakistan and the three eastern ones to India. However, there is much more than that and the Treaty is quite technical in essence. It also contains many Appendices and Annexures that make the document quite mouldable. According to Article I (15) of the Indus Water Treaty, an “interference with the waters” - which is a violation of the Treaty - refers to “any man-made obstruction” to the flow of the river “which causes a change in the volume of the daily flow of waters”. Therefore, is not India's construction of seven hydropower projects on the River Chenab an 'interference with the waters'? Furthermore, Article III (4) categorically states, “India shall not store any water of, or construct any storage works on, the Western rivers”. The first hydropower project that comes to mind is the Baglihar Dam. India was allowed to construct the dam after the verdict of the 'neutral' Swiss expert. This was because of an allowance provided to India on the basis of the Indus Water Treaty itself i.e. Annexures D and E. These Annexures permit India to construct storage works with some engineering and technical limitations. This is exactly what happened during the Baglihar difference case as India claimed to be conforming to the engineering needs and standards of today, while Pakistan objected on the basis of the Indus Treaty. It is unfortunate that the Appendices and Annexures, which constitute the practical side of the Treaty, have been ignored and not studied thoroughly by the Pakistani side. In addition, sub-paragraph 8(h) of the Indus Water Treaty entitles India to construct an 'incidental storage work' on the Western rivers under the condition that India has prior approval of the design by Pakistan. India has complied with this decision and has shared changes in design and storage capacity of the controversial Kishanganga Dam. Pakistan has raised objections regarding the structure of the dam, which will cause a diversion in the Neelum River waters, resulting in a 27 per cent deficit. According to Pakistani authorities, India, with its seven hydropower projects planned on the tributaries of the Chenab, is responsible for withholding millions of cubic feet of water. Pakistan also declared recently that India was responsible for the loss of 200,000 cusecs of the Chenab River waters, mainly due to the filling of the massive Baglihar dam. This could be greatly perilous for the agriculture sector of Pakistan, which comprises 23% of its GDP. The water crisis adds to the incessant tension between the already fragile Indo-Pak relations. Unfortunately, India's intransigence is neither challenged nor denounced. President Asif Ali Zardari, for his part, has warned, "The water crisis in Pakistan is directly linked to relations with India. Resolution could prevent an environmental catastrophe in South Asia, but failure to do so could fuel the fires of discontent that lead to extremism and terrorism." In addition, Pakistan's Indus Water Commission held talks with its Indian counterpart asking for compensation for causing a significant drop in the flow of the Chenab, which failed miserably. However, this is not enough. Pakistan should take up the water issue to the United Nations in right earnest and appeal for India to 'back off'. Pakistan needs to stimulate its level of diplomacy and ensure that India does not 'throw its weight around'. What could be the implications of a looming water crisis for Pakistan? Severe drought will prevail; our agriculture sector will be ruined; there will be scarcity of food; and our economy will be in a shambles. As it is, the per capita availability of water in Pakistan has reduced from 5,260-cubic meters in 1951 to about 1000-cubic metres today. Pakistani policymakers must act before it is too late. The Pakistani media must also take up the matter and highlight the intensity and urgency of the water issue to help prevent the imminent crisis. The media and civil society can work together at building forums to deal with the problem with their Indian counterparts (Track 2 Diplomacy). There is also an urgent need for Pakistan to raise the issue at all relevant international forums and tell the world its side of the story, particularly emphasizing Indian highhandedness in the matter so that it can enervate the country's onerous intentions and prevent its rapid construction of dams. At the same time, Pakistan must launch a crash program of building small and medium-sized dams and increase the storage capacity of its reservoirs.
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