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Much water has flowed down the Potomac ever since those heady days in the fifties and sixties when Pakistan was a proud US ally – the pride being of equal intensity on both sides. Those were the days of CENTO (also known as the Baghdad Pact) that comprised Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States – and SEATO, another grouping that strung together Australia, France, New Zealand, Pakistan, the Philippines, South Korea, South Vietnam, Thailand, the United Kingdom and the United States.
In the wake of changes in global strategic alignments, these alliances had dissolved into thin air by the 70s but come the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 and Pakistan was again in the front row, committing all it had to fight a war for the interests of an ally located thousands of miles away on the other side of the Atlantic. Pakistan delivered once again by seeing to it that the Soviets were driven out of Afghanistan. Ensuing events in fact went many crucial steps further and set in motion the avalanche that brought the mighty USSR down. That done and the Cold War over, American interest in the region again waned and the Afghan mujahideen, who had fought so bravely against the Soviets, were left to their own devices, including the creation of the Taliban and their subsequent control of almost all of Afghanistan. Then came 9/11 and the sleeping giant that is America, again woke up to its own perceived reality, namely that the plan to attack and destroy the World Trade Towers in New York and the Pentagon in Washington was conceived and controlled from the rugged mountains that straddle Pakistan and Afghanistan. The chief perpetrator of this invasion of their mainland, the Americans talked themselves into believing, was none other than Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaida, supported by the Taliban. What started then and continues to this day is a process of systematic destruction and subsequent occupation of Afghanistan and the routing of the Taliban by the US forces and its allies in the garb of ISAF and NATO. Inside their own territory, the Pakistani armed forces have also been sucked into fighting this war on America’s behalf, having been embroiled in it for the past seven years. That in turn has set in motion a chain of events that has seen a resurgence of the Taliban – the very people who had provided a safe haven to Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan. The fighting has destabilized Pakistan’s federally administered tribal areas (FATA} and its horrific effects have spilled over into the rest of the country. For their part, the US forces have now drawn up the courage to make incursions into Pakistani territory and air space in pursuit of the Taliban and their foreign supporters. After all the damage that has been done to a country that had nothing to do with 9/11 and that never welcomed Osama bin Laden or facilitated Al Qaida, a recent report says the US cannot afford to see Pakistan fail but its options in the country are diminishing rapidly. The report has been prepared by former US officials, including Richard Armitage, the man who is reported to have threatened to bomb Pakistan into the Stone Age and Rep. Lee Hamilton, who headed the 9/11 Commission. "Pakistan may be the single greatest challenge facing the next American President...Washington needs to rethink its approach to Pakistan. If we genuinely believe that a stable, prosperous Pakistan is in our interest, we must be much smarter about how we work with Pakistan and what sort of assistance we provide," says the report released by the Pakistan Policy Working Group. The Group claims to be an independent, bipartisan group of American experts on US-Pakistan relations and was formed in January 2008 to assess the state of these relations and to offer ideas to the next US President and his Administration on managing this critical partnership. The group's efforts were guided by the understanding that Pakistan is, and will remain, one of the United States' foremost foreign policy and national security challenges, deserving of heightened attention in the new Administration. The report says the group met regularly for eight months to discuss topics involving Pakistan's domestic political situation, counter-terrorism and internal security challenges, relationships within the region, and economic development and assistance. Its members travelled to Pakistan, where they interviewed government officials, academics, business leaders, and nongovernmental organization (NGO) workers. Various US officials and Pakistani experts also joined the group's regular meetings to brief members on their areas of expertise. The same alarm bells about the vulnerability of American interests in Pakistan were also rung by the two American presidential candidates and their respective running mates in their TV debates and other public pronouncements. As the report says, the next American President faces the challenge of the sixth most populous country in the world suffering its greatest internal crises since partition, with security, economic and political interests in the balance. "With such turmoil, we find US interests in Pakistan are more threatened now than at any time since the Taliban was driven from Afghanistan in 2001. The US cannot afford to see Pakistan fail, nor can it ignore the extremists operating in Pakistan's tribal areas. Pakistan's nuclear arsenal (and past nuclear proliferation), al-Qaeda, and the war in Afghanistan keep US national security firmly anchored in Pakistan. Afghanistan cannot succeed without success in Pakistan, and vice versa." It says what happens in Southwest Asia can profoundly affect lives of US citizens. "In the face of this challenge, Washington needs to rethink its approach to Pakistan. If we genuinely believe that a stable, prosperous Pakistan is in our interest, we must be much smarter about how we work with Pakistan and what sort of assistance we provide. As the bombing of the Marriott hotel in Islamabad demonstrates, there is little time to waste. "Our options in Pakistan are diminishing rapidly but political developments in both Pakistan and US, however, make this an opportune moment to recalibrate the US Policy." "A new civilian government headed by the Pakistan People's Party has emerged in Pakistan, and President Pervez Musharraf has departed the scene after nine years of military rule. The upcoming US presidential election will similarly bring a new set of policymakers to power and a potential willingness to consider fresh approaches to managing the difficult but exceedingly important USñPakistan relationship," it says. In a detailed analysis of the Pakistan situation the experts say 2008 has helped to pave the way for a full transition from military to civilian rule. "Yet civilian leaders must ensure that political infighting does not hamper consolidation of the democratic process and institutions. For now, Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani has stated that he will keep the Army out of politics. "However, if the politicians fail to focus on effective governance of the country, the Army could decide to intervene once again, especially if extremists are threatening the integrity of the state. In the past, democratic civilian rule in Pakistan has largely failed to advance stability and security in the country." It admits that pervasive anti-Americanism is complicating the diplomatic landscape across Pakistan. "US-Pakistan cooperation is impeded by suspicions about US designs for the region, its reliability as a long-term ally, and the widely held view that Washington manipulates Pakistan's leaders and policies." It says effecting smarter diplomacy in this environment laden with political unrest and palpable anti-Americanism, the US is facing tremendous diplomatic challenges. "Given the disappointments with Pakistan's elected government, some in the US may feel nostalgia for the days when President Musharraf wore his uniform and commanded a docile parliament. But just as the US was too slow in detecting the public disaffection with President Musharraf before the 2008 elections, it must not too quickly lose patience with Pakistan's elected leaders." Some of the key recommendations for strengthening US policy toward Pakistan presented in the report include: • Exhibit patience with Pakistan's new democratically elected leaders, while working to stabilize the government through economic aid and diplomacy. • Develop, invest in, and implement a far reaching public diplomacy program that emphasizes common US and Pakistani interests in combating extremism, creating prosperity, and improving regional relationships. • Invest in US institutions and personnel in Pakistan to support long-term engagement in the region. • Increase support for civilian institutions that would provide oversight of the military and the Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence. • Increase diplomatic efforts to encourage the bilateral peace process between New Delhi and Islamabad. • Enhance access of Pakistani textiles to the US market on favored terms. • Focus the majority of US economic aid on projects in basic education, health care, water resource management, law enforcement, and justice programs, with the goal of developing state capacity to effectively deliver these services to the population. • Redirect the focus of US military assistance to providing systems and training that enhance Pakistan's counter-terrorism and counterinsurgency capabilities.
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