|
The dawn of two decades is nearing. Two decades of a unique love-hate relationship that has seen many political analysts stay at the edge of their seats like a soap-opera fanatic does to the twists and turns of a new story.
What makes it all the more interesting is that this story is not about complex family politics; it revolves around two regional neighbors. One, a discreetly rising giant, tactfully making its presence felt in global politics and economics – China. The other, a coalescence of ten smaller nations, is trying to establish its mark through regional cooperation – ASEAN.
After a rather gradual thawing of hostile relations between the Southeast Asian countries and China during the 80s, in July 1991, the one to offer a handshake for future Sino-ASEAN relations was China. Over the next few years, consultations on political and security issues, as well as mutual consent for cooperation in science and technology and economic and trade cooperation were followed by the granting of a full Dialogue Partner status to China in 1996.
Towards the onslaught of the twentieth century, framework documents on bilateral cooperation between China and Southeast Asian countries such as Malaysia and Thailand had been signed, and by 2000, similar agreements with all ASEAN states had been concluded.
In fact, Sino-ASEAN cooperation was also witnessed in unconventional arenas, such as that of illicit drugs. With the aim of eliminating the drug menace by 2015, China and the Southeast Asian bloc cooperate via the ASEAN-China Cooperative Operations in Response to Dangerous Drugs (ACCORD), which was established in 2001.
The military front also bears testimony to a strengthening of China-ASEAN cooperation, with visits of high-level military officials exchanged between the two. In October 2003, the signing of a key ASEAN security protocol, the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), marked a sound establishment of strategic cooperation between the two partners as far as security and peace mattered.
Yet, the political developments and cooperative dialogue between the two may not seem as overwhelming as the immense growth in economic cooperation between the Chinese and the Southeast Asians.
Following an agreement for the establishment of an ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) and subsequent agreements for trade in goods, services and investments, the ACFTA was finally realized on January 2010 with the elimination of tariffs on 97 percent of the items on the Normal Track (tariff rates are gradually reduced and eliminated for items placed in the Normal Track for an FTA).
The resulting trade cooperation saw ASEAN’s trade with China witness a stupendous average annual growth of 26 percent since 2003. From roughly $60 billion in 2003, trade between ASEAN and China was nearly $180 billion in 2009, the latter being the year when China could finally boast of being ASEAN’s largest trading partner, accounting for close to 12 percent of ASEAN’s total trade.
Yet, all has not been hunky-dory through this rather rocky phase of diplomatic amiability. Towards the late 90s and early 2000s, relations between China and Philippines were nothing to stand tall for. Chinese fishing vessels spotted in the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea irked the Philippines government, leading to exchanges of heated statements between the two.
This promulgated much discussion over territorial disputes between the ASEAN and China, resulting in, ultimately, the drafting of the Codes of Conduct for the South China Sea. Environmental protection, marine science research, and safety of navigation were some of the highpoints of the code.
Even though the code is not binding on either party, it sets the frame for mellowing down serious Sino-ASEAN contentions.
But it still can’t contain the underlying hostility between some Southeast Asian nations and China. Territorial claims by other Southeast Asian nations, such as Vietnam and Malaysia, have sustained tensions regarding this matter, rendering it the Achilles heel of an otherwise smooth path to diplomatic camaraderie.
That’s only one part of the bigger fear engulfing the Southeast Asian nations – the fear of China’s rising global importance. Beijing would, naturally, put its best foot forward when it comes to its growing clout, highlighting its strategic role in safeguarding regional prosperity and stability as its significance is felt all across the globe.
Many ASEAN scholars also see this as an opportunity to rise with the Asian giant, especially as far as economic interdependence is concerned.
China’s intensifying global presence, and the growth of its influence over world affairs has heightened concerns over muted aims for enhancing political and security interests in the region.
But just for the sake of alleviating these apprehensions, silencing the surge in of regional cooperation between ASEAN and China may not be an optimal strategy. China’s rapid economic growth actually holds tremendous opportunities for the ten-nation bloc. It has been estimated that the completion of the ACFTA will not only increase ASEAN’s exports to China by 48 percent, but will also enhance China’s exports to ASEAN by 55 percent – this being exclusive of the benefits of enhanced trade with other countries that will ensue.
However, to hedge against potential threats from China, the ASEAN needs to establish itself as a sturdy regional bloc built on absolute solidarity. If rows between member countries – such as the one witnessed in the 15th ASEAN summit held in Thailand – continue, it will casts doubts over the strength of the bloc.
To gain from the economic and trade benefits proffered by closer Sino-ASEAN ties, ASEAN members need to think as one, solid league rather than ten disparate nations. And the sooner they realize this, the better. 
Sijal Fawad is a student of Finance and Economics at the School of Oriental and African Studies, London, and a Research Analyst at the Business Recorder.
|
Show/hide comments
Show/hide comment form
