Arab Awakening - A Myth?

Written by Tayyab Siddiqui • November 2011

There is now a sense of bewilderment if not frustration in the Arab world. The predictions have gone awry and projections are off the mark. The Arab Spring has failed to blossom. Seldom has idealism influenced the judgment of political analysts as much as is evident in the colorful interpretations and projections of the “Arab revolt” and the “Arab spring” in the wake of mass protests in Tunisia and Egypt and regime changes there. Political pundits spoke in glowing terms of the “Jasmine Revolution” in Tunis and the “Democratic Tsunami” in Cairo. There is now a sense of bewilderment if not frustration. The predictions have gone awry and projections are off the mark. The Arab Spring has failed to blossom.

Historically the simmering discontent in Arab societies was first displayed in the elections in Gaza and West Bank in the January 2006 elections. Against all assessment the PLO was trounced in the Palestinian elections and Hamas emerged as the majority party in Gaza.

Yasser Arafat held sway for 25 years until his death in November 2004 and while the PLO had a democratic structure with a Palestinian National Council and a Central Committee, all major decisions were taken by Yasser Arafat and his towering personality dominated the institutions. In the process of leading Palestinians towards statehood and return of occupied territories, Arafat committed major blunders such as support of Saddam Hussein in his aggression against Kuwait, recognition of Israel and signing of the Oslo Accords without credible U.S. assurances or a mechanism of compliance of its provisions which, inter alia, stipulated the creation of a Palestinian State by 1998.

The elections in the Palestinian territories were the first sign of revolt against the old Arab order and the status quo. The West as well as the Arabs did not act on the wake up call. The Hamas victory was seen merely as an Islamist movement and not a sign of democratic aspirations. This indeed was the start of the Arab awakening. The same year the Arabs witnessed a military standoff between Israel and Hizbullah in Lebanon, demolishing the myth of the IDF’s invincibility.

The Egyptian revolution in spite of its unprecedented mass support and struggle has failed to restore the power back to the people. It is more than six months and yet the future remains mired in uncertainty. While the yearning for change in Egypt included democracy and freedom from the tyrannical Mubarak regime, the fact is that Mubarak’s policies towards Israel played a major role in People’s rebellion against the regime. Mubarak as the most faithful ally of the U.S. consistently acted against Arab interests. He sealed off the border with Gaza in support of Israel’s security and the blockade resulted in the death of thousands of Palestinians.

It is instructive that Mubarak was succeeded in the early stages by the equally despised intelligence chief General Omar Suleiman and even today is ruled by a military council led by Field Marshal Tantawi. Despite government claims of transition to democracy and restoration of human rights and a constitution, ensuring transfer of power to the people, the revolution remains unfinished and the momentum has been lost. The present feeling in Cairo is that of stalemate and unpredictability than of hope and enthusiasm.

Libya doesn’t fit into this description. Many factors set these cases apart. Winds of revolutionary change sweeping across the Arab world did not inspire or sponsor the developments there. The revolution in Libya had nothing to do with the spontaneous popular revolt against the tyrannical regimes of a dictator but a civil-tribal conflict, instigated and sustained by France and Britain. TNC has been a disparate group of anti-government militants without any program or leadership structure. Despite its recognition by the West it lacks legitimacy and authority. NATO acted in violation of the UNSC resolutions 1970 and 1973 and spurned AU calls for a negotiated settlement in their efforts to seek regime change. The stubborn resistance of Qaddafi’s regime has surprised everybody. The conflict is not likely to resolve soon and may turn into a prolonged civil-tribal war.

The revolutions in Bahrain and Yemen were smothered in their infancy and the euphoria of radical changes in the political landscape across the region has been short-lived. Rebuilding Arab societies along democratic and liberal lines is not an easy task. The Arab reawakening is an ongoing process which began with the victory of Hamas in Palestine and integration of Hizbullah in the political mainstream of Lebanon in 2006.

Western analysts have failed to assess the impact of the 2006 elections and how two organizations primarily engaged in social welfare emerged as the voice of the new generation and harbingers of political change manifested through street protests in different parts of the Arab world beginning this year.

The Arab world is witnessing the dawn of a new era; but till now it has been marred by uncertainty and chaos, even anarchy. For the foreseeable future conflict between existing power centers, the old guard and the explosive demands of the youth movement in these countries would influence interim and orderly transition. At present it appears to be beyond the control of either to steer towards a well-defined direction soon. Bahrain is a case in point.

The West’s expectations that the political change will transform the entire region and that we are witnessing the birth of a new Middle East are perhaps too simplistic and optimistic.

In the short run the Middle East will neither gain stability nor democracy. The turbulence will continue and may claim sectarian harmony, particularly in Egypt between Coptic Christians and Muslims. The tenets of democracy would come under increasingly strong challenges from Islamic parties. In the realm of foreign policy there would be a surge of anti-U.S. and anti-Israel feelings across the region. The talk of elections and a new egalitarian and democratic constitution has been the staple of new leaders in these countries, but nothing is likely to happen before next year. Both Tunisia and Egypt have already missed their deadlines by a wide margin.